2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread
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November 26, 2021, 06:01:38 PM

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Author Topic: 2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 29792 times)
BigSerg
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« Reply #875 on: November 19, 2021, 04:01:03 PM »

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Vaccinated Russian Bear
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« Reply #876 on: November 23, 2021, 09:04:43 AM »

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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
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« Reply #877 on: November 23, 2021, 01:30:24 PM »



This poll is meaningless it's 1000 days til Election day
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Josh Shapiro for Governor
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« Reply #878 on: November 23, 2021, 08:38:06 PM »

If Quinnipiac is finding R+8, we're in for a shellacking worse than 2010.

Democrats are basically a non party below the Presidency.

Both ridiculous takes.
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Harris/Shalala 2024
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« Reply #879 on: November 24, 2021, 08:36:18 AM »
« Edited: November 24, 2021, 08:40:05 AM by Harris/Shalala 2024 »



Same poll has -7 for Biden's Approval (43-50)
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #880 on: November 24, 2021, 08:46:24 AM »

It seems Marist, unlike Quinnipiac, wants to continue embarrassing themselves.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #881 on: November 24, 2021, 11:36:38 AM »

It seems Marist, unlike Quinnipiac, wants to continue embarrassing themselves.
While Marist has always been D-leaning and I donít really Ďtrustí this poll, itís crazy to throw out a poll from a reputable pollster. Maybe Ds are just seeing some regression back towards the mean (as literally always happens) and simultaneously this sample is a bit D-friendly.

The tendency of this forum to dismiss polls thatís donít align with their preconceptions rather than try to understand them is pretty silly.
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2016
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« Reply #882 on: November 24, 2021, 11:42:46 AM »

It seems Marist, unlike Quinnipiac, wants to continue embarrassing themselves.
Hilarious indeed! No way Dems leading on the Generic Ballot!
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #883 on: November 24, 2021, 07:50:54 PM »

Weíre basically at the point where even a series of Republican recruitment failures, flawed Republican campaigns, and very aggressive Democratic redistricting decisions/gerrymanders would result in a 54R-46D Senate as well as a healthy GOP majority in the House. This one increasingly looks like itís set in stone.

At this point it seems trifectas only last two years and the party in power is punished for winning the presidency. This is not sustainable going forward.

Itís been sustainable for decades. It wouldnít be a major problem if the two-year window of governance witnessed good/impactful governance.

In the Clinton and Obama trifecta's you had lots of conservative and moderate Southern Democrats  stopping any big progressive legislation. Those ex Democratic areas are now almost entirely Republican, which also makes the ability to do anything with narrow majorities impossible.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #884 on: November 25, 2021, 07:05:04 AM »

It seems Marist, unlike Quinnipiac, wants to continue embarrassing themselves.
While Marist has always been D-leaning and I donít really Ďtrustí this poll, itís crazy to throw out a poll from a reputable pollster. Maybe Ds are just seeing some regression back towards the mean (as literally always happens) and simultaneously this sample is a bit D-friendly.

The tendency of this forum to dismiss polls thatís donít align with their preconceptions rather than try to understand them is pretty silly.

Ah yes, the "reputable" Marist poll. Let's go back, shall we.

NBC/Marist

US: Biden +11 (D+7)
AZ: Tie (0)
FL: Biden +4 (D+7)
MI: Biden +8 (D+5)
NC: Biden +6 (D+7)
PA: Biden +5 (D+4)
WI: Biden +10 (D+9)

Average Error: 5.3
Average Partisan Error: D+5.3
538 Grade: A+

Nate Silver's favorite pollster for a long time.

That doesn't include their bullseyes in 2018, which included McCaskill +3 for MO Senate, Evers +10 for WI governor, Sinema +6 for AZ Senate, Blackburn +5 for TN Senate (Bredesen +2 in August, btw), among others, in a year where most people here believed the polls were accurate, proving that 2016 was a fluke for polling, and that 2020 polls would be mostly accurate.

More importantly, we just had elections a few weeks ago, where Biden's approval was -8 at the time of the election in both 538 and RCP's averages, and Democrats lost Virginia and narrowly won New Jersey, with incumbent and former incumbent Dem governors running and conservative "Trumplican" Republican candidates. Averaging the swings from 2020 in both states would suggest around R+8 for the country. D+5 is 13 points away from that, way outside any reasonable polling error, or any reasonable explanation for why Republican governor candidates would do so much better. Let's remember 2020 for the House was D+3. This poll is claiming Dems have a roughly equivalent or slightly larger lead today, right now, with Biden's approval being roughly the same as November 2nd, 2021. And, it would be one thing for a poll to claim a narrow Dem lead with lots of undecideds, say 42% to 40%. But for this poll to claim 46% would vote Dem already, with 13% undecided, says a lot of things in my mind about the poll, but none of which are that the poll is accurate.

If we had polls claiming R's leading in 2018, everyone here would be laughing them off. And they should've been laughed off, because we knew that was nowhere near reality based on multiple indicators. People should do the same here even if they want to believe it.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #885 on: November 25, 2021, 10:57:26 AM »

It seems Marist, unlike Quinnipiac, wants to continue embarrassing themselves.
While Marist has always been D-leaning and I donít really Ďtrustí this poll, itís crazy to throw out a poll from a reputable pollster. Maybe Ds are just seeing some regression back towards the mean (as literally always happens) and simultaneously this sample is a bit D-friendly.

The tendency of this forum to dismiss polls thatís donít align with their preconceptions rather than try to understand them is pretty silly.

Ah yes, the "reputable" Marist poll. Let's go back, shall we.

NBC/Marist

US: Biden +11 (D+7)
AZ: Tie (0)
FL: Biden +4 (D+7)
MI: Biden +8 (D+5)
NC: Biden +6 (D+7)
PA: Biden +5 (D+4)
WI: Biden +10 (D+9)

Average Error: 5.3
Average Partisan Error: D+5.3
538 Grade: A+

Nate Silver's favorite pollster for a long time.

That doesn't include their bullseyes in 2018, which included McCaskill +3 for MO Senate, Evers +10 for WI governor, Sinema +6 for AZ Senate, Blackburn +5 for TN Senate (Bredesen +2 in August, btw), among others, in a year where most people here believed the polls were accurate, proving that 2016 was a fluke for polling, and that 2020 polls would be mostly accurate.

More importantly, we just had elections a few weeks ago, where Biden's approval was -8 at the time of the election in both 538 and RCP's averages, and Democrats lost Virginia and narrowly won New Jersey, with incumbent and former incumbent Dem governors running and conservative "Trumplican" Republican candidates. Averaging the swings from 2020 in both states would suggest around R+8 for the country. D+5 is 13 points away from that, way outside any reasonable polling error, or any reasonable explanation for why Republican governor candidates would do so much better. Let's remember 2020 for the House was D+3. This poll is claiming Dems have a roughly equivalent or slightly larger lead today, right now, with Biden's approval being roughly the same as November 2nd, 2021. And, it would be one thing for a poll to claim a narrow Dem lead with lots of undecideds, say 42% to 40%. But for this poll to claim 46% would vote Dem already, with 13% undecided, says a lot of things in my mind about the poll, but none of which are that the poll is accurate.

If we had polls claiming R's leading in 2018, everyone here would be laughing them off. And they should've been laughed off, because we knew that was nowhere near reality based on multiple indicators. People should do the same here even if they want to believe it.
Sure, Marist has a history of D bias. But itís still a professional pollster with published methodology, and so the results are useful even if maybe we should tilt things a few points right in our heads from where they say the race is.

Itís useful to put in the average against R bias pollsters to cancel them out, and itís useful to know that thereís been some reversion to the mean since Rs swept the 2021 elections. Thatís all Iím saying.
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
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« Reply #886 on: November 25, 2021, 11:13:03 AM »
« Edited: November 25, 2021, 11:27:38 AM by Mr. MANDELA BARNES »

There isn't much difference than where we left off from 2020, if the Election were held today the EC map would be the same 304


We have wave insurance STS but that's only when and only when Biden Approvals hoaver around 50 percent


That's why when Rs talk about Landslided and 60 it's not factual because do you honestly believe that Rs are gonna have 54 sts, they only won 53 in 2014 and 2018 due to red wall STS we lost MO, IN, ND in 2018 and LA, AK and AR those are double digits red states

We didn't lose PA, OH, NC, TX or WI which STS are still in play.


The only red wall state is safe and D's aren't betting on is FL Beto, Ryan and Beshear have boyish looks for Female voters just like DeSantis

Don't think Females don't vote for make candidate based on looks Jon Ossoff is relatively boyishly
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2016
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« Reply #887 on: November 25, 2021, 01:09:59 PM »

There isn't much difference than where we left off from 2020, if the Election were held today the EC map would be the same 304


We have wave insurance STS but that's only when and only when Biden Approvals hoaver around 50 percent


That's why when Rs talk about Landslided and 60 it's not factual because do you honestly believe that Rs are gonna have 54 sts, they only won 53 in 2014 and 2018 due to red wall STS we lost MO, IN, ND in 2018 and LA, AK and AR those are double digits red states

We didn't lose PA, OH, NC, TX or WI which STS are still in play.


The only red wall state is safe and D's aren't betting on is FL Beto, Ryan and Beshear have boyish looks for Female voters just like DeSantis

Don't think Females don't vote for make candidate based on looks Jon Ossoff is relatively boyishly
Olowakandi,
You are just talking massive NONSENSE over and over again.

# 1 Biden will not reach 50 % JA in his 1st Term again!

# 2 Biden is in a much more worse place compared to his former boss Obama.

# 3 According to the 2009 Virginia Exit Polls Obama had a 48/51 Job Approval Rating in the State compared to Bidens 46/53 YET Republican Bob McDonnell beat Democrat Creigh Deeds by Double Digits

2009 VA Exits
https://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2009/images/11/04/2009.exit.polls.-.va.gov.pdf
PARTY ID: D 33 / I 30 / R 37

2021 VA Exits
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2021/november/exit-polls/virginia/governor/0
PARTY ID: D 36 / I 30 / R 34

Obama also was inspiring. Biden is an old 80 year-old uninspiring sleepy figure.

VA tells us that 2022 will be a R-WAVE. It's unlikely R's get 63 House Seats like in 2010 but they don't need to. They will get between 20-30 though!
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
olawakandi
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« Reply #888 on: November 25, 2021, 01:19:08 PM »

There isn't much difference than where we left off from 2020, if the Election were held today the EC map would be the same 304


We have wave insurance STS but that's only when and only when Biden Approvals hoaver around 50 percent


That's why when Rs talk about Landslided and 60 it's not factual because do you honestly believe that Rs are gonna have 54 sts, they only won 53 in 2014 and 2018 due to red wall STS we lost MO, IN, ND in 2018 and LA, AK and AR those are double digits red states

We didn't lose PA, OH, NC, TX or WI which STS are still in play.


The only red wall state is safe and D's aren't betting on is FL Beto, Ryan and Beshear have boyish looks for Female voters just like DeSantis

Don't think Females don't vote for make candidate based on looks Jon Ossoff is relatively boyishly
Olowakandi,
You are just talking massive NONSENSE over and over again.

# 1 Biden will not reach 50 % JA in his 1st Term again!

# 2 Biden is in a much more worse place compared to his former boss Obama.

# 3 According to the 2009 Virginia Exit Polls Obama had a 48/51 Job Approval Rating in the State compared to Bidens 46/53 YET Republican Bob McDonnell beat Democrat Creigh Deeds by Double Digits

2009 VA Exits
https://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2009/images/11/04/2009.exit.polls.-.va.gov.pdf
PARTY ID: D 33 / I 30 / R 37

2021 VA Exits
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2021/november/exit-polls/virginia/governor/0
PARTY ID: D 36 / I 30 / R 34

Obama also was inspiring. Biden is an old 80 year-old uninspiring sleepy figure.

VA tells us that 2022 will be a R-WAVE. It's unlikely R's get 63 House Seats like in 2010 but they don't need to. They will get between 20-30 though!

Marquette poll has Biden up 8 we won the NPVI In2020 80M votes whom is the Majority party DS, lol the RS haven't won the NPVi since 2014 you're the on e thinking the RS are the Majority and Trump didn't win the PVI either in both Election, I told this to you slready

2016 DS NPVI 65/62
2020 80M to 74M

DS are the Majority not Ra


Biden and Obama won 50 percent of the vote Trump 48 and Bush W 48 in 2004 of course he had Rove 51 percent
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
olawakandi
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« Reply #889 on: November 25, 2021, 01:23:49 PM »

The Election is in a yr it's not a White man election it's a blk brown and Female election that's why we have beaten you guys in almost every Prez election since 1992
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2016
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« Reply #890 on: November 25, 2021, 03:00:51 PM »

There isn't much difference than where we left off from 2020, if the Election were held today the EC map would be the same 304


We have wave insurance STS but that's only when and only when Biden Approvals hoaver around 50 percent


That's why when Rs talk about Landslided and 60 it's not factual because do you honestly believe that Rs are gonna have 54 sts, they only won 53 in 2014 and 2018 due to red wall STS we lost MO, IN, ND in 2018 and LA, AK and AR those are double digits red states

We didn't lose PA, OH, NC, TX or WI which STS are still in play.


The only red wall state is safe and D's aren't betting on is FL Beto, Ryan and Beshear have boyish looks for Female voters just like DeSantis

Don't think Females don't vote for make candidate based on looks Jon Ossoff is relatively boyishly
Olowakandi,
You are just talking massive NONSENSE over and over again.

# 1 Biden will not reach 50 % JA in his 1st Term again!

# 2 Biden is in a much more worse place compared to his former boss Obama.

# 3 According to the 2009 Virginia Exit Polls Obama had a 48/51 Job Approval Rating in the State compared to Bidens 46/53 YET Republican Bob McDonnell beat Democrat Creigh Deeds by Double Digits

2009 VA Exits
https://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2009/images/11/04/2009.exit.polls.-.va.gov.pdf
PARTY ID: D 33 / I 30 / R 37

2021 VA Exits
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2021/november/exit-polls/virginia/governor/0
PARTY ID: D 36 / I 30 / R 34

Obama also was inspiring. Biden is an old 80 year-old uninspiring sleepy figure.

VA tells us that 2022 will be a R-WAVE. It's unlikely R's get 63 House Seats like in 2010 but they don't need to. They will get between 20-30 though!

Marquette poll has Biden up 8 we won the NPVI In2020 80M votes whom is the Majority party DS, lol the RS haven't won the NPVi since 2014 you're the on e thinking the RS are the Majority and Trump didn't win the PVI either in both Election, I told this to you slready

2016 DS NPVI 65/62
2020 80M to 74M

DS are the Majority not Ra


Biden and Obama won 50 percent of the vote Trump 48 and Bush W 48 in 2004 of course he had Rove 51 percent
Who cares what the Marquette Poll says!
Every single Poll that came out since the Afghanistan withrawal has Biden down among Independents.

Youngkin beat McAuliffe 54-45 among Indies.

Biden doesn't have a winning coalition. 51 % who voted for Biden in said that their vote was against Trump. That isn't a winning coaltion when you pull from Voters who said they hate the other guy.
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