2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[SnowLabrador]

Wasn't sure where else to put this, but former NY-19 GOP nominee Kyle Van De Water died at 41:
https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1435395111282745344

Suspected suicide.

RIP.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Remington polled the generic congressional ballot in seven competitive US House districts:

https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/AAN-September-Polling-Memo.pdf

CA-10 (Harder) - 49% Republican/42% Democrat
FL-07 (Murphy) - 48% R/45% D
IA-03 (Axne) - 51% R/42% D
MI-08 (Slotkin) - 52% R/43% D
MI-11 (Stevens) - 51% R/45% D
VA-02 (Luria) - 49% R/46% D
WA-08 (Schrier) - 49% R/45% D
Average - 50% Republican/44% Democrat

Junk it. This poll is filled with loaded questions.

Q: Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Liberal-led spending has already raised record price increases for working families. Spending $3.5 trillion for a liberal wish list will only make the rising costs families face even worse.

You have D's winning in NC, OH, and FL, lol it's not happen Biden polls are the same as Trump was in 2018, 45 percent not 59 percent on par to lose the H and keep the Senate, you can juki the polls you like


Nate Silver says that D's will lose the H but keep a 51/48 Senate and GA goes to a Runoff, that's reality

[MT Treasurer]

Remington polled the generic congressional ballot in seven competitive US House districts:

https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/AAN-September-Polling-Memo.pdf

CA-10 (Harder) - 49% Republican/42% Democrat
FL-07 (Murphy) - 48% R/45% D
IA-03 (Axne) - 51% R/42% D
MI-08 (Slotkin) - 52% R/43% D
MI-11 (Stevens) - 51% R/45% D
VA-02 (Luria) - 49% R/46% D
WA-08 (Schrier) - 49% R/45% D
Average - 50% Republican/44% Democrat

Maintaining that Axne is one of the most overrated D incumbents in the House — she’s easily in the Top 5 (if not Top 3) of most vulnerable House Democrats even if her district gets slightly bluer.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

House is gone in 2032, T Mac is losing by 2 pts, further proof it's not gonna be a blue wave looking more like 2014

[UncleSam]

Remington polled the generic congressional ballot in seven competitive US House districts:

https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/AAN-September-Polling-Memo.pdf

CA-10 (Harder) - 49% Republican/42% Democrat
FL-07 (Murphy) - 48% R/45% D
IA-03 (Axne) - 51% R/42% D
MI-08 (Slotkin) - 52% R/43% D
MI-11 (Stevens) - 51% R/45% D
VA-02 (Luria) - 49% R/46% D
WA-08 (Schrier) - 49% R/45% D
Average - 50% Republican/44% Democrat

Junk it. This poll is filled with loaded questions.

Q: Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Liberal-led spending has already raised record price increases for working families. Spending $3.5 trillion for a liberal wish list will only make the rising costs families face even worse.

The loaded questions did come after the congressional top lines, but it’s effectively an internal poll for Rs. Shift it several points left for release / sampling bias and you’d probably have an accurate picture, but I don’t think priming bias was a huge issue with it.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1437046822325919746

CNN shows
45% D
44% R

The poll was conducted August 3-September 7, 2021

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

365 Days til the Election and we are still reading polls

[SnowLabrador]

A high-turnout Republican wave wouldn't speak too kindly of our country, I know that much.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How will it be a high Republican turnout and Biden got 80M votes compared to Trump 70M and it's VBM, that's why Newsom will win with 60%

[Devils30]

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3819

45-42 D...D+3.

Biden approval at -18 with indies and yet D +2 with the same group.

[SnowLabrador]

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3819

45-42 D...D+3.

Biden approval at -18 with indies and yet D +2 with the same group.

If Quinnipiac only has D+3, it will be a red wave.

[MT Treasurer]

These are not R vs. D but Biden approval numbers, but given how rarely we get any CD polling, I thought I’d post them here and not in the Biden Approval thread (feel free to move).

This is Fabrizio Ward (R) for the National Taxpayers Union:

Biden Approve/Disapprove:
 
AZ-1 (O'Halleran) – 39/60
PA-8 (Cartwright) – 40/57
PA-17 (Lamb) – 38/59
KS-3 (Davids) – 43/57

2020 results in those districts:

AZ-1: Biden 50-48
PA-8: Trump 52-47
PA-17: Biden 51-48
KS-3: Biden 54-44

https://www.ntu.org/publications/detail/ntu-poll-taxpayers-oppose-35-trillion-reconciliation-plan-energy-tax-hike-provisions

[wbrocks67]

These are not R vs. D but Biden approval numbers, but given how rarely we get any CD polling, I thought I’d post them here and not in the Biden Approval thread (feel free to move).

This is Fabrizio Ward (R) for the National Taxpayers Union:

Biden Approve/Disapprove:
 
AZ-1 (O'Halleran) – 39/60
PA-8 (Cartwright) – 40/57
PA-17 (Lamb) – 38/59
KS-3 (Davids) – 43/57

2020 results in those districts:

AZ-1: Biden 50-48
PA-8: Trump 52-47
PA-17: Biden 51-48
KS-3: Biden 54-44

https://www.ntu.org/publications/detail/ntu-poll-taxpayers-oppose-35-trillion-reconciliation-plan-energy-tax-hike-provisions

Even with Biden in a rough spot nationally recently, these are ridiculous. PA-17 is literally nearly a 25% swing. Come on.

[Gracile]

These are not R vs. D but Biden approval numbers, but given how rarely we get any CD polling, I thought I’d post them here and not in the Biden Approval thread (feel free to move).

This is Fabrizio Ward (R) for the National Taxpayers Union:

Biden Approve/Disapprove:
 
AZ-1 (O'Halleran) – 39/60
PA-8 (Cartwright) – 40/57
PA-17 (Lamb) – 38/59
KS-3 (Davids) – 43/57

2020 results in those districts:

AZ-1: Biden 50-48
PA-8: Trump 52-47
PA-17: Biden 51-48
KS-3: Biden 54-44

https://www.ntu.org/publications/detail/ntu-poll-taxpayers-oppose-35-trillion-reconciliation-plan-energy-tax-hike-provisions

Obviously a partisan source, but Biden holding up better in PA-08 than AZ-01 and PA-17 particularly seems pretty doubtful (though I suppose that's in line with pollsters consistently finding overinflated Democratic numbers in the non-big metro upper Midwest).

[S019]

These are not R vs. D but Biden approval numbers, but given how rarely we get any CD polling, I thought I’d post them here and not in the Biden Approval thread (feel free to move).

This is Fabrizio Ward (R) for the National Taxpayers Union:

Biden Approve/Disapprove:
 
AZ-1 (O'Halleran) – 39/60
PA-8 (Cartwright) – 40/57
PA-17 (Lamb) – 38/59
KS-3 (Davids) – 43/57

2020 results in those districts:

AZ-1: Biden 50-48
PA-8: Trump 52-47
PA-17: Biden 51-48
KS-3: Biden 54-44

https://www.ntu.org/publications/detail/ntu-poll-taxpayers-oppose-35-trillion-reconciliation-plan-energy-tax-hike-provisions

I can buy some of these, but really struggle to buy Biden-14 in KS-03 or Biden-21 in PA-17, PA-08 especially is a place where I'd expect Biden to become quite unpopular once he actually starts doing stuff in office, Cartwright is probably doomed, but it's not like we didn't know this anyways.

[Devils30]

These are not R vs. D but Biden approval numbers, but given how rarely we get any CD polling, I thought I’d post them here and not in the Biden Approval thread (feel free to move).

This is Fabrizio Ward (R) for the National Taxpayers Union:

Biden Approve/Disapprove:
 
AZ-1 (O'Halleran) – 39/60
PA-8 (Cartwright) – 40/57
PA-17 (Lamb) – 38/59
KS-3 (Davids) – 43/57

2020 results in those districts:

AZ-1: Biden 50-48
PA-8: Trump 52-47
PA-17: Biden 51-48
KS-3: Biden 54-44

https://www.ntu.org/publications/detail/ntu-poll-taxpayers-oppose-35-trillion-reconciliation-plan-energy-tax-hike-provisions

I can buy some of these, but really struggle to buy Biden-14 in KS-03 or Biden-21 in PA-17, PA-08 especially is a place where I'd expect Biden to become quite unpopular once he actually starts doing stuff in office, Cartwright is probably doomed, but it's not like we didn't know this anyways.

Normally I'd be dismissive of the Biden disapprove/D vote being anything notable but the state leg. specials suggest there is a little bit of this at the moment.

[SnowLabrador]

These are not R vs. D but Biden approval numbers, but given how rarely we get any CD polling, I thought I’d post them here and not in the Biden Approval thread (feel free to move).

This is Fabrizio Ward (R) for the National Taxpayers Union:

Biden Approve/Disapprove:
 
AZ-1 (O'Halleran) – 39/60
PA-8 (Cartwright) – 40/57
PA-17 (Lamb) – 38/59
KS-3 (Davids) – 43/57

2020 results in those districts:

AZ-1: Biden 50-48
PA-8: Trump 52-47
PA-17: Biden 51-48
KS-3: Biden 54-44

https://www.ntu.org/publications/detail/ntu-poll-taxpayers-oppose-35-trillion-reconciliation-plan-energy-tax-hike-provisions

I can buy some of these, but really struggle to buy Biden-14 in KS-03 or Biden-21 in PA-17, PA-08 especially is a place where I'd expect Biden to become quite unpopular once he actually starts doing stuff in office, Cartwright is probably doomed, but it's not like we didn't know this anyways.

Normally I'd be dismissive of the Biden disapprove/D vote being anything notable but the state leg. specials suggest there is a little bit of this at the moment.

I mean, these people exist. I should know; I'm one of them. I cannot stand Joe Biden, he's not using his bully pulpit nearly enough, but I'm still going to vote blue in '22.

[Devils30]

These are not R vs. D but Biden approval numbers, but given how rarely we get any CD polling, I thought I’d post them here and not in the Biden Approval thread (feel free to move).

This is Fabrizio Ward (R) for the National Taxpayers Union:

Biden Approve/Disapprove:
 
AZ-1 (O'Halleran) – 39/60
PA-8 (Cartwright) – 40/57
PA-17 (Lamb) – 38/59
KS-3 (Davids) – 43/57

2020 results in those districts:

AZ-1: Biden 50-48
PA-8: Trump 52-47
PA-17: Biden 51-48
KS-3: Biden 54-44

https://www.ntu.org/publications/detail/ntu-poll-taxpayers-oppose-35-trillion-reconciliation-plan-energy-tax-hike-provisions

I can buy some of these, but really struggle to buy Biden-14 in KS-03 or Biden-21 in PA-17, PA-08 especially is a place where I'd expect Biden to become quite unpopular once he actually starts doing stuff in office, Cartwright is probably doomed, but it's not like we didn't know this anyways.

Normally I'd be dismissive of the Biden disapprove/D vote being anything notable but the state leg. specials suggest there is a little bit of this at the moment.

I mean, these people exist. I should know; I'm one of them. I cannot stand Joe Biden, he's not using his bully pulpit nearly enough, but I'm still going to vote blue in '22.

Last night's Cali results also suggest these doomsayer numbers are not true. You can't draw conclusions but Dems are clearly still in the game for 2022 in House.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 304 map, but the NH, NV Senate polls are ridiculously not true CCM and Hassan aren't losing by 10pts Biden support never wanted in a single county

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-best-tool-for-predicting-midterm-elections-doesnt-show-a-republican-wave-but-history-is-on-the-gops-side/
Our Best Tool For Predicting Midterm Elections Doesn’t Show A Republican Wave — But History Is On The GOP’s Side


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-best-tool-for-predicting-midterm-elections-doesnt-show-a-republican-wave-but-history-is-on-the-gops-side/
Our Best Tool For Predicting Midterm Elections Doesn’t Show A Republican Wave — But History Is On The GOP’s Side


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

It's not 2022/ it's 2021 wait til next spring when we on w what Polls will look like

[tagimaucia]

The generic ballot looks pretty much the same as it did at the same date for Democrats in 2013, and its maybe a hair better for them than on the same date in 2009.  

Doesn't mean that things will play out exactly the same, but as a realist, I think the most likely outcome is still that things go south for the Democrats over the next 14 months (and even if they don't go south, GOP is likely in a position to at least win the house back at this very moment). I hope I'm wrong!

[Devils30]

The generic ballot looks pretty much the same as it did at the same date for Democrats in 2013, and its maybe a hair better for them than on the same date in 2009.  

Doesn't mean that things will play out exactly the same, but as a realist, I think the most likely outcome is still that things go south for the Democrats over the next 14 months (and even if they don't go south, GOP is likely in a position to at least win the house back at this very moment). I hope I'm wrong!

Pollsters using their 2010 and 2014 turnout models are already getting them in huge trouble. It should be pretty clear after Virginia in 6 weeks that the Dems are still showing up to vote and pollsters should adjust accordingly.

[tagimaucia]

The generic ballot looks pretty much the same as it did at the same date for Democrats in 2013, and its maybe a hair better for them than on the same date in 2009.  

Doesn't mean that things will play out exactly the same, but as a realist, I think the most likely outcome is still that things go south for the Democrats over the next 14 months (and even if they don't go south, GOP is likely in a position to at least win the house back at this very moment). I hope I'm wrong!

Pollsters using their 2010 and 2014 turnout models are already getting them in huge trouble. It should be pretty clear after Virginia in 6 weeks that the Dems are still showing up to vote and pollsters should adjust accordingly.

How are Registered Voters (RV) (which nearly all the current generic ballot polls are, as opposed to Likely Voters) polls "using 2010 and 2014 turnout models?"  Aren't RV polls by definition not using any type of a turnout model?

[Matty]

Why is 538 talking about a wave year?

It doesn’t need to be a wave year

The gop can lose the house PV by 2 points and have a good chance of taking the house