2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Matty]

It may not, but you can’t deny there has been political fallout

538 tracker shows a clear trend and the polling done on the the issue has been horrific for Biden

70%+ think the withdrawal has been done poorly, and that was before the troops were blown up

I continue to be perplexed why you are putting your credibility on the line here.

There is, to date, zero evidence that 2022 is going to be an abnormal midterm.

It’s much safer to err on the side of history than on theories that originated in your own brain

Harry enten has a great article on cnn now with hard data showing why 2022 is looking like a likely house takeover for GOp

Senate is a toss up

Yeah, Yeah,, blah we have 500 days til Election and they are getting crushed in VA and Cali Election abd we supposed to believe they're gonna win and the last time they won was 2014

Crushed in ca?

They are on track to overperform there by like 20 points

VA will be a 5 point dem win

Again, the elephant in the room is that the gop doesn’t even need a great showing in 2022.

Only a mediocre one

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was just saying that Biden is at 46/43% Approvals now but there is a rally around the flag and he cand be at 54/46 Approvals in Nov 2022/ if Ryan and Jackson win and we keep the H, the R party is over as we know it Ryan and Jackson aren't Tester or Sinema and Manchin protesting the Filibuster and JD Vance isn't Rib Portman

He is a Trumpian, an auther that isn't tested by Ryan in Debate, and DeSantis and Rubio haven't been Scrutinized in debate and Crist and Demings or Grayson are fierce debators


Don't forget the last time Rs won an Election was 2016/ Trump lost the PVI in 2014 and used WikiLeaks to defeat Benghazi Hillary, but Debbie Wasserman lost the election for Hillary, without Debbie, Hillary would have won

Trump won FL H, IA, NC and FL before the Insurrectionists, those states have single female, Minorities BLK, Asian, Latinos and Arabs

[SnowLabrador]

The 2022 election is the most important one in US history, and we're blowing it. Biden should be ashamed of himself.

[wbrocks67]

The 2022 election is the most important one in US history, and we're blowing it. Biden should be ashamed of himself.

It's literally not for another year. Given how the insurrection is literally forgotten about and that was only 7 months ago, who knows what Nov 2022 will look like at this point.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1431293258223718403

And then there’s polls like this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So much for an R wave after AFGHANISTAN

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1431293258223718403

And then there’s polls like this.

Huh, interesting. Though we've been so scarred by these 20% undecided/other polls that I can't even put that much stock into it

[Progressive Pessimist]

The 2022 election is the most important one in US history, and we're blowing it. Biden should be ashamed of himself.

I can't say we're blowing it when there is likely nothing we could do in the face of our country's constant deterministic repetition of historical patterns.

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1432816882432630788?s=20

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1432816882432630788?s=20

What are the chances that OK-05 gets any bluer though?

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1432816882432630788?s=20

What are the chances that OK-05 gets any bluer though?

Less than zero. They're going to make it redder.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I mean, D+1-R+3 is all within the MoE, so given the coverage, I don't see current movement from R+1 in July to R+3 now as that damaging. Certainly not something that can't be clawed back from when we're currently in one of the worst news cycles of Biden's presidency.

In June things were looking very good for Biden on most fronts, so the fact that it was only D+1 at that point tells you something.

https://twitter.com/brentbuc/status/1432382904894697472

A 17K survey sample? Absolute garbage.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I mean, D+1-R+3 is all within the MoE, so given the coverage, I don't see current movement from R+1 in July to R+3 now as that damaging. Certainly not something that can't be clawed back from when we're currently in one of the worst news cycles of Biden's presidency.

In June things were looking very good for Biden on most fronts, so the fact that it was only D+1 at that point tells you something.

https://twitter.com/brentbuc/status/1432382904894697472

A 17K survey sample? Absolute garbage.

Nate Silver says it's a 304 map anyways FL, NC, IA and OH are Lean R anyways with Voter Suppression


FOLLOW NATE SILVER ITS NOT D PLUS 7 IEother TS D PLUS 3=5 PIKE IT WAS ELECTION NIGHT 2020


It's was a 304 R map in 2016/it was a 304 D map 2018/2020

[CookieDamage]

I mean, D+1-R+3 is all within the MoE, so given the coverage, I don't see current movement from R+1 in July to R+3 now as that damaging. Certainly not something that can't be clawed back from when we're currently in one of the worst news cycles of Biden's presidency.

In June things were looking very good for Biden on most fronts, so the fact that it was only D+1 at that point tells you something.

https://twitter.com/brentbuc/status/1432382904894697472

A 17K survey sample? Absolute garbage.

Please. His Twitter bio says "Christ follower". All you need to know.

[President Johnson]

The said poll may be flawed, though I wouldn't be that surprised if it's currently around tied. If that was the case or Republicans are ahead, I'm so free to say the public hast lost its collective mind if they actually want the Republican Party just remotely back in power after what happened in last few years from the Tea Party to Trump. This is a party that in large parts openly despises democracy and downplayed or supported an insurrection/coup attempt; it should essentially have no business in governing for the rest of this decade. For four years, they have embraced or ignored corruption, selfenrichment, utter neglance and gross incompetence at the highest levels of government. I can't really comprehend how anyone would want this sh*tshow back?

[Progressive Pessimist]

The said poll may be flawed, though I wouldn't be that surprised if it's currently around tied. If that was the case or Republicans are ahead, I'm so free to say the public hast lost its collective mind if they actually want the Republican Party just remotely back in power after what happened in last few years from the Tea Party to Trump. This is a party that in large parts openly despises democracy and downplayed or supported an insurrection/coup attempt; it should essentially have no business in governing for the rest of this decade. For four years, they have embraced or ignored corruption, selfenrichment, utter neglance and gross incompetence at the highest levels of government. I can't really comprehend how anyone would want this sh*tshow back?

Don't assume that our national voting population is rational.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1434993713219055621

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's did Ng high

[Gracile]

Remington polled the generic congressional ballot in seven competitive US House districts:

https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/AAN-September-Polling-Memo.pdf

CA-10 (Harder) - 49% Republican/42% Democrat
FL-07 (Murphy) - 48% R/45% D
IA-03 (Axne) - 51% R/42% D
MI-08 (Slotkin) - 52% R/43% D
MI-11 (Stevens) - 51% R/45% D
VA-02 (Luria) - 49% R/46% D
WA-08 (Schrier) - 49% R/45% D
Average - 50% Republican/44% Democrat

[wbrocks67]

Remington polled the generic congressional ballot in seven competitive US House districts:

https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/AAN-September-Polling-Memo.pdf

CA-10 (Harder) - 49% Republican/42% Democrat
FL-07 (Murphy) - 48% R/45% D
IA-03 (Axne) - 51% R/42% D
MI-08 (Slotkin) - 52% R/43% D
MI-11 (Stevens) - 51% R/45% D
VA-02 (Luria) - 49% R/46% D
WA-08 (Schrier) - 49% R/45% D
Average - 50% Republican/44% Democrat

Did they just happen to find 7 R leads or did they not release any that had a D lead? Just find it funny how they happened to poll 7 and found R leads in all 7.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even more reason why Fink needs to get her campaign going to help in IA 3

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Remington polled the generic congressional ballot in seven competitive US House districts:

https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/AAN-September-Polling-Memo.pdf

CA-10 (Harder) - 49% Republican/42% Democrat
FL-07 (Murphy) - 48% R/45% D
IA-03 (Axne) - 51% R/42% D
MI-08 (Slotkin) - 52% R/43% D
MI-11 (Stevens) - 51% R/45% D
VA-02 (Luria) - 49% R/46% D
WA-08 (Schrier) - 49% R/45% D
Average - 50% Republican/44% Democrat

Gen. E. Ric is definitely a strong candidate.  I wonder when s/he will announce his/her candidacy.

[Mr.Phips]

Remington polled the generic congressional ballot in seven competitive US House districts:

https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/AAN-September-Polling-Memo.pdf

CA-10 (Harder) - 49% Republican/42% Democrat
FL-07 (Murphy) - 48% R/45% D
IA-03 (Axne) - 51% R/42% D
MI-08 (Slotkin) - 52% R/43% D
MI-11 (Stevens) - 51% R/45% D
VA-02 (Luria) - 49% R/46% D
WA-08 (Schrier) - 49% R/45% D
Average - 50% Republican/44% Democrat

MI-08, MI-11, and WA-08 will probably look much different in redistricting.

[Roll Roons]

Wasn't sure where else to put this, but former NY-19 GOP nominee Kyle Van De Water died at 41:
https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1435395111282745344

Suspected suicide.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Remington polled the generic congressional ballot in seven competitive US House districts:

https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/AAN-September-Polling-Memo.pdf

CA-10 (Harder) - 49% Republican/42% Democrat
FL-07 (Murphy) - 48% R/45% D
IA-03 (Axne) - 51% R/42% D
MI-08 (Slotkin) - 52% R/43% D
MI-11 (Stevens) - 51% R/45% D
VA-02 (Luria) - 49% R/46% D
WA-08 (Schrier) - 49% R/45% D
Average - 50% Republican/44% Democrat

Junk it. This poll is filled with loaded questions.

Q: Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Liberal-led spending has already raised record price increases for working families. Spending $3.5 trillion for a liberal wish list will only make the rising costs families face even worse.