2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Mechavada]

I mean, they have a nine seat advantage in the House and from what I've seen so far Kevin McCarthy doesn't know what in the hell he's doing at all so this is definitely not outside the realm of possibility.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

lol no

As Dr William Barber said we have 599 til the Election, D's can still win, Did you know D's are plus 7 on Generic ballot

Rs are taking advantage of Voter Suppression but if D's have a big turnout not like a typical Midterm but a Prez Election we will net gain seats, in H and Senate 230 H Seat and 52+ we want Reparations and DC Statehood

[Xing]

You tell them, King!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We're not gonna sweep every race but split voting can happen and it happens all the time in FL Crist and Rubio, Renacci and Tim Ryan, and Vernon Jones and Warnock and we can have Fink, especially between H and Prez

Don't forget Cooper and Tillis, and Brown and DeWine and Sinema and Ducey we are up on Generic ballot the same amount we won it by in 2018, by 8 pts

We still have the 1/6th Commission report as well that can damage the Rs



If Trump had the exact same Approvals Rs would be talking sweep



Also a Recall of Dunleavy is happening, it could spell big trouble I'm AO Senate race where Gross is in second place, not Lisa Murkowski

[CookieDamage]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1419770441191858181

It's best to assume that almost all of the undecideds are Republican. So the GCB's probably tied, which means a strong GOP year.

You're actually hilariously unbearable

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Generic ballot is meaningless if Newsom is in fact Recalled this September, and TMac isn't gonna win a landslide either, he has been tied to Trump

But yet Biden is at 53/39% the Same Exact Approvals he had on Election night if the Election were held today it's a 304 map but what about Newsom, and if Newsom looses which he should Elder v Villigosa race

Or if Terry McAuliffe looses which is possible

[BoiseBoy]

Iowa State Senator Liz Mathis (D, SD-34) announced a run against Hinson in IA-01 today.

https://twitter.com/LizMathis1/status/1420006588681699330

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1419770441191858181

It's best to assume that almost all of the undecideds are Republican. So the GCB's probably tied, which means a strong GOP year.

You're actually hilariously unbearable

Muting him and MillenialModerate on election day was the best decision I've ever made, cleared up my Atlas experience significantly.

[Utah Neolib]

Manchin's thinking about running again...

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/26/manchin-weighs-another-term-as-his-influence-peaks-500648

Lmaooo good luck with that, Joe.

I hope he does, if he doesn’t dems will never win the seat again

[Non Swing Voter]

1. Biden isn't unpopular.

2. There is evidence to suggest that off year electorates are more favorable to democrats (who are much more educated) nowadays.

3. GOP is still crazy.

4. There are more democrats than Republicans.

5. Gerrymandering favors the GOP but not as much as it did last time they drew the maps.

6. Population growth is highly concentrated in Democrats areas (even in red states) and therefore even if Republicans gerrymander, Democrats should see some benefit.

7. GOP won a lot of the low hanging fruit in 2020.  They have to defend a lot of close districts, a lot more than Democrats do. 

8. Historical norms don't always play out.  Like in GWB's first term.  Also, if historical norms played out then Biden wouldn't have won the White House while losing so many House seats. 

In short.  I've seen no good analysis here to demonstrate that the GOP is a lock for the House.  It's just some combination of "historical norms" and "gerrymandering."  Weak. 

[Matty]

1. Biden isn't unpopular.

2. There is evidence to suggest that off year electorates are more favorable to democrats (who are much more educated) nowadays.

3. GOP is still crazy.

4. There are more democrats than Republicans.

5. Gerrymandering favors the GOP but not as much as it did last time they drew the maps.

6. Population growth is highly concentrated in Democrats areas (even in red states) and therefore even if Republicans gerrymander, Democrats should see some benefit.

7. GOP won a lot of the low hanging fruit in 2020.  They have to defend a lot of close districts, a lot more than Democrats do. 

8. Historical norms don't always play out.  Like in GWB's first term.  Also, if historical norms played out then Biden wouldn't have won the White House while losing so many House seats. 

In short.  I've seen no good analysis here to demonstrate that the GOP is a lock for the House.  It's just some combination of "historical norms" and "gerrymandering."  Weak. 

I don't understand why you are setting yourself up for disappointment.

The GOP needs to win a tiny tiny sliver of what dems needed to win in 2018, what repubs needed to win in 2010 or 1994, dems needed in 2006, etc.

EVEN IF DEMS MASSIVELY OVERPERFORM PREVIOUS IN-PARTY PERFORMANCES, there's still a large chance they lose the house, based purely on how tiny their majority is.

And by the way, of the special elections so far in 2021, the gop is outperforming 2020 margins by about 3%. That doesn't suggest the midterm electorate is going to be even more pro dem than 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I posted this we don't know what 2022/ has in store but Breyer might retire, at the end of next Term, because if Roe is overturned, he might be turned off on politics, but Klobuchar is telling Breyer to retire now don't wait

Yeah the GOP is favored but Breyer can retire and we can win the H, and those wave insurance Senate seats, that's why Sheldon Whitehouse made the Speech today on how Conservative the Crt is, but Breyer also said he doesn't believe in Crt packing and using his seat to elevate Crt packing too

We don't know when KETANJI BROWN Jackson is gonna be Justice 2022/2024 but D's are gonna retain Senate

Watch for a retirement when 6/3 Crt overturns Roe and look for D's to Capitalize on it to win in Midterms

[THG]

Democrats lost house seats in 2020.

They’re losing a ton in 2022. I will not take anyone who claims that Democrats can keep the house seriously or even give their judgement equal footing of validity as the judgement of someone like myself.

[DrScholl]

There aren't a ton of seats for Democrats to lose. This isn't 2010 and there are no more Gene Taylors, John Spratts, etc. for Republicans to take out. At best the seats Republicans will gain are the ones that they draw for themselves and those gains will be cut in half by seats by that are being eliminated, Democrats doing their own gerrymandering in limited states and that doesn't even take into account the seats that Republicans will have to fight to hold in California. The best case scenario for Republicans is 219 seats and even that's not guaranteed.

[Mr.Phips]

Democrats lost house seats in 2020.

They’re losing a ton in 2022. I will not take anyone who claims that Democrats can keep the house seriously or even give their judgement equal footing of validity as the judgement of someone like myself.

Dems don’t have nearly as many seats to lose as they did in 2010.  I don’t think Dems can keep the House, but more than a 35 seat loss is probably impossible given that Dems only hold 222 seats.

[THG]

Democrats lost house seats in 2020.

They’re losing a ton in 2022. I will not take anyone who claims that Democrats can keep the house seriously or even give their judgement equal footing of validity as the judgement of someone like myself.

Dems don’t have nearly as many seats to lose as they did in 2010.  I don’t think Dems can keep the House, but more than a 35 seat loss is probably impossible given that Dems only hold 222 seats.

I don’t think they’re losing 60 seats.

What I did say is that they are obviously not favored to keep the house.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said earlier if Breyer retires, or any type of blue wave can result in a D Trifecta, but as of now it's a Neutral Environment, with Rs taking the H and D's holding the Senate 51/49, loosing GA and Govs loosing KS and winning AZ, MD, MA and we don't know about whom is running on D's in NH but Ben Downing will beat Baker

Breyer retirement or Covid subsiding will help a blue wave, we don't know what 2022 brings and due to Covid they won't release regular polling but Fink, Ryan and Beasley and Demings are probably trailing by 5/8 pts LV not RV

Only poll out of OH had Vance 39/37


The reason why Warnock not Hassan or Nelson in WI will loose is because he is the only one that won't hit 50% due to a runoff scenario and the only state we lost in 2020 was AL  and GA is vulnerable, we lost ME but that was before Collins played her obstruction role on VR


Hassan and Nelson or any D probably reaches 50 as long as Biden reaches 50, it amazes me that users think GA is Lean D and Wzi leaks R and WI voted for the D for Prez as many times as GA voted R for Prez and Stacy Adams hasn't announced she is running

[Mechavada]

Democrats lost house seats in 2020.

They’re losing a ton in 2022. I will not take anyone who claims that Democrats can keep the house seriously or even give their judgement equal footing of validity as the judgement of someone like myself.

Again, Kevin McCarthy.  KEVIN MCCARTHY.

That's all I really need to say lol.  All these guy scan make complex arguments with like stats and sh**t or whatever but if you have a leader who can't even select people for a committee I really don't know what to tell you.  I just don't.

No hard feelings man.  Just saying.

[slothdem]

It's simultaneously true that as of now Republicans are favored to retake the House in 2022 and also if the election was held today, Democrats would win the House NPV by a substantial margin. Both can be true and it's not a contradiction. (1) Republican gerrymandering will produce a house map more favorable to republicans, and (2) the electoral environment will probably (but not definitely) get worse for Democrats.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The 'law-and-order outlaw', who almost won the Republican primary in 2020, is running again for (if redistricting allows) Matt Cartwright's seat.

This doesn't compare to the 'Clancy Brown's Dan Crenshaw' ad, but it's something.

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1420756846701211654

[MT Treasurer]

(this is probably the wrong thread for this, feel free to move)

Manchin's thinking about running again...

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/26/manchin-weighs-another-term-as-his-influence-peaks-500648

Lmaooo good luck with that, Joe.

I’m really torn here, personally — on the one hand, I’d love to see Manchin get humiliated because this guy is one of those individuals who derives particular pleasure from the game he plays and probably couldn’t handle losing; on the other hand, I wouldn’t entirely put it past Republican strategists to find a way to screw up this race or past WV voters to fall for his con job yet again, and the prospect of six more years of him in the Senate is actually really horrifying, however unlikely it may be (and I don’t think it’s any more likely than Likely R). Ideally, he runs for GOV in 2024, wins that race, and then goes full IceSpear on his voters, but it won’t happen because we can’t have nice things in this world.

[wbrocks67]

The 'law-and-order outlaw', who almost won the Republican primary in 2020, is running again for (if redistricting allows) Matt Cartwright's seat.

This doesn't compare to the 'Clancy Brown's Dan Crenshaw' ad, but it's something.

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1420756846701211654

Oh, so after the GOP had the Prez, House, and Senate from 2016-2018, we're still doing the whole 'our voices aren't being heard' nonsense? lmao

[Pollster]

The 'law-and-order outlaw', who almost won the Republican primary in 2020, is running again for (if redistricting allows) Matt Cartwright's seat.

This doesn't compare to the 'Clancy Brown's Dan Crenshaw' ad, but it's something.

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1420756846701211654

Nothing says "man of the people" like a slickly produced announcement video that probably cost at least half a million dollars even before the consulting firm's profit.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/Joseph_C_Rocha/status/1422196259176292360?s=20

I would be surprised if this person is in the next Congress, but a credible challenger as it stands.

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1419770441191858181

It's best to assume that almost all of the undecideds are Republican. So the GCB's probably tied, which means a strong GOP year.

You're actually hilariously unbearable

I'm not sure why this would be a particularly irritating statement to anybody. It turned out (mathematically, at least) to be the case in 2014, 2016, 2020...


At any rate, given the midterm climate, reapportionment shifts and once the GOP redraws the suburbs since they're no longer GOP strongholds like in 2011, Democrats losing a dozen seats seems perfectly realistic even if we win by the same PV margin as in 2020.