2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Devils30]

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/forecasting-the-2022-midterm-election-with-the-generic-ballot/

This model is flawed, same guy who said the Dems had to win the generic ballot by 11 to win House in 2018.

1) There is no chance if Dems are -5 on the GCB they are holding the Senate
2) If Dems are -10, they will not hold 3/4 of GA AZ NV NH.
3) Dems will not lose the House at +6 or so, most likely then they will get gains out of NY, IL, MD, NM, CA to offset their losses.

I'm skeptical at a huge divergence between the House and Senate when the median House district is R+2 relative to the popular vote and median Senate state would be around R+4 (GA, AZ). Even if the median House district moves to R+3 or so it's hard to see a Rs winning 25 House seats, Dems keeping Senate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

States don't go the same way in Midterms as in Prez Election I have been saying this all along we can have Sen Abby and Sununu and Jackson and Ryan in the Senate together.  Also, Whitmer and D's loosing PA Gov mansion and then Hobbs and Laura Kelly can win their  Gov races, stay tuned 500 days til the Election

D's want DC Statehood, we have to expand the map to keep the H

[Devils30]

States don't go the same way in Midterms as in Prez Election I have been saying this all along we can have Sen Abby and Sununu and Jackson and Ryan in the Senate together.  Also, Whitmer and D's loosing PA Gov mansion and then Hobbs and Laura Kelly can win their  Gov races, stay tuned 500 days til the Election

D's want DC Statehood, we have to expand the map to keep the H

I think some underrate the number of possible Dem offensive opportunities for 2022. NY-1, 11, 22 and one of 23/24 should be Democratic districts in 2022 along with IL-13, MD-1, NM-2.

You think that's it but would anyone be shocked if Dems stacked the CA commission into making CA-25, 39 Biden +15 and CA-48 Biden +8?

[Mr.Phips]

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/forecasting-the-2022-midterm-election-with-the-generic-ballot/

This model is flawed, same guy who said the Dems had to win the generic ballot by 11 to win House in 2018.

1) There is no chance if Dems are -5 on the GCB they are holding the Senate
2) If Dems are -10, they will not hold 3/4 of GA AZ NV NH.
3) Dems will not lose the House at +6 or so, most likely then they will get gains out of NY, IL, MD, NM, CA to offset their losses.

I'm skeptical at a huge divergence between the House and Senate when the median House district is R+2 relative to the popular vote and median Senate state would be around R+4 (GA, AZ). Even if the median House district moves to R+3 or so it's hard to see a Rs winning 25 House seats, Dems keeping Senate.

I agree that Dems are probably only keeping the Senate in a scenario where Republican House gains are around ten or fewer.

[Devils30]

https://www.wwnytv.com/2021/06/14/1st-democrat-emerges-challenge-stefanik-congress/

The campaign looks as though it will have serious organization and money behind it. Would not expect someone with this background to do any better than Cobb though. This looks like the kind of campaign that could do well at at attracting attention from the party's national base.

e: LinkedIn check shows that Putorti lived in NYC from the time he went to college until the pandemic, confirming my suspicions. Democrats don't know how to recruit local candidates in rural districts.

Won't matter, Dems are going to pack Stefanik and Tenney in redistricting into an ultra red seat.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1407359369273036803?s=20

[Devils30]

I think there are just too many running parts to really know how this redistricting cycle plays out. If the Dems can game the refs in CO, MI, VA, CA with the commissions it changes a lot of things. Like CA producing a 42-10 map vs 47-5 or CO being 6-2 Dem (something I would not rule out). Other stuff like how does WI-3, PA-8, look also is a factor.

There are just so many different pieces to the puzzle we don't know about yet.

[NYDem]

https://www.wktv.com/content/news/Brindisi-decides-not-to-run-for-Congress-in-2022-574700631.html

Brindisi has withdrawn from the NY-22 (pending redistricting) race after declaring his intention to retake his seat in January.

[Devils30]

https://www.wktv.com/content/news/Brindisi-decides-not-to-run-for-Congress-in-2022-574700631.html

Brindisi has withdrawn from the NY-22 (pending redistricting) race after declaring his intention to retake his seat in January.

Everything upstate will look a lot different with new maps, if he was in a primary in a new Biden +12 seat he might have lost to someone more liberal. I do think the Ds will gerrymander NY at the direction of the national party that needs it to offset GOP ones elsewhere.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://www.wktv.com/content/news/Brindisi-decides-not-to-run-for-Congress-in-2022-574700631.html

Brindisi has withdrawn from the NY-22 (pending redistricting) race after declaring his intention to retake his seat in January.

Everything upstate will look a lot different with new maps, if he was in a primary in a new Biden +12 seat he might have lost to someone more liberal. I do think the Ds will gerrymander NY at the direction of the national party that needs it to offset GOP ones elsewhere.

At the very least it sounds like Oneida will stay in a solidly Republican district.

[free my dawg]

https://twitter.com/maxberger/status/1408802671583236098?s=19

Putting the editorializing aside I think we all knew this was bound to happen. This is a pretty blatant front group for the DCCC to protect incumbents.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/maxberger/status/1408802671583236098?s=19

Putting the editorializing aside I think we all knew this was bound to happen. This is a pretty blatant front group for the DCCC to protect incumbents.

At least undertaking all of this coordination out in the open for all of us to see is better than hiding & denying it, I guess. Also, it seems as if the word "progressive" has finally become the latest word to just blatantly lose anything that even resembles a coherent definition, given the article-linked-by-the-tweet's liberal usage of it therein.

[Devils30]

https://www.wktv.com/content/news/Brindisi-decides-not-to-run-for-Congress-in-2022-574700631.html

Brindisi has withdrawn from the NY-22 (pending redistricting) race after declaring his intention to retake his seat in January.

Everything upstate will look a lot different with new maps, if he was in a primary in a new Biden +12 seat he might have lost to someone more liberal. I do think the Ds will gerrymander NY at the direction of the national party that needs it to offset GOP ones elsewhere.

At the very least it sounds like Oneida will stay in a solidly Republican district.

Dems will put Utica in a blue leaning district and probably have the rest of the county in an ultra red NY-21.

[NYDem]

https://www.wktv.com/content/news/Brindisi-decides-not-to-run-for-Congress-in-2022-574700631.html

Brindisi has withdrawn from the NY-22 (pending redistricting) race after declaring his intention to retake his seat in January.

Everything upstate will look a lot different with new maps, if he was in a primary in a new Biden +12 seat he might have lost to someone more liberal. I do think the Ds will gerrymander NY at the direction of the national party that needs it to offset GOP ones elsewhere.

At the very least it sounds like Oneida will stay in a solidly Republican district.

Dems will put Utica in a blue leaning district and probably have the rest of the county in an ultra red NY-21.

I worry that him dropping out means the opposite and Utica is going to get stuck to the Adirondacks or something.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://www.wktv.com/content/news/Brindisi-decides-not-to-run-for-Congress-in-2022-574700631.html

Brindisi has withdrawn from the NY-22 (pending redistricting) race after declaring his intention to retake his seat in January.

Everything upstate will look a lot different with new maps, if he was in a primary in a new Biden +12 seat he might have lost to someone more liberal. I do think the Ds will gerrymander NY at the direction of the national party that needs it to offset GOP ones elsewhere.

At the very least it sounds like Oneida will stay in a solidly Republican district.

Dems will put Utica in a blue leaning district and probably have the rest of the county in an ultra red NY-21.

I worry that him dropping out means the opposite and Utica is going to get stuck to the Adirondacks or something.

Yeah that’s the feeling I was getting.

[Devils30]

Depends, the Ds might draw a district from Albany area to Plattsburgh along the NY/VT border that could take in blue counties and maybe the new NY-22 or 24 has tentacles away from Syracuse into Utica and the southern half of the county (mainly to even population).

[Devils30]

Utica and the area around it have swung far enough toward the GOP that there would be no electoral advantage to packing it into a Democratic seat, even if NY had partisan gerrymandering.

I'm not caught up on the drama around the state's independent redistricting commission, but I doubt that Brindisi has any special insight as to what the resulting map will look like.

Dems have a supermajority..the commission don’t mean s***

[brucejoel99]

Oh?

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1410334023440900098

[Roll Roons]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/kean-22/

Looks like we're getting a Kean-Malinowski rematch!

[Devils30]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/kean-22/

Looks like we're getting a Kean-Malinowski rematch!

Pointless to speculate until we know the new district.

[Gracile]

State Sen. Tony Vargas appears to be in for NE-02-

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1414901347468550145

[Lognog]

State Sen. Tony Vargas appears to be in for NE-02-

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1414901347468550145

Is this district going to be nuked?

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1416029077710979090?s=19

Florida being moved to Lean R for absolutely no reason is hilarious..

It's closer to safe than lean.

[BoiseBoy]

Some fun out of Idaho:

Chad Christensen, a state representative from District 32 (southeast Idaho, Teton County, part of Bonneville County), has been contemplating an attempt to primary Mike Simpson (ID-02). He said he will have a final decision by September or October; he wants to see what happens during redistricting.

Chad has a reputation here of not being a very good person. He's definitely to Simpson's right and is apparently a member of the Oath Keepers.

[Gracile]

Yesterday was the deadline to report Q2 Fundraising. Here's a list of fundraising in races targeted by the NRCC/DCCC per Rob Pyers-

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1415993000618979328

(I don't put much stock in fundraising numbers anymore, but there are some interesting numbers in here nonetheless.)