2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's aren't losing any IL seats as long as Pritzker has control of Redistricting

They still have WI as Lean R for Senate and it's a Tossup

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Sabato put out an interesting article on how they'd hypothetically rate House seats if the same lines were being used in 2022:

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1395345933878145026

Not a terrible list, but there are a few eyebrow-raising choices. For one, I don't see how you can justify classifying NY-24 as Lean R when they are clearly (and reasonably) assuming a GOP-friendly national environment.

CA-25 and CA-39 certainly would be the first two Democratic pickups, though. You could make an argument to move TX-24 to the tossup category as well, simply given the district's trajectory and van Duyne's personal controversies. Having TX-24 and NY-24 in the same category is pretty absurd.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Neat overview, but I certainly wouldn't read into it this far out & pre-redistricting

[Brittain33]

My Hopium is wearing off with all the Dems jumping ship so early in the cycle.

I was saying it’s hard to be optimistic that Dems will hold the House when so many incumbents are acting as if they believe they won’t.

[Lief 🗽]

Democrats surge into a ten point lead!
https://twitter.com/electsworld/status/1395746724879216646?s=21

[Devils30]

Democrats surge into a ten point lead!
https://twitter.com/electsworld/status/1395746724879216646?s=21

A lot of the GOP's optimism comes from historical trends, not actual polling for 2022.

[SnowLabrador]

Democrats surge into a ten point lead!
https://twitter.com/electsworld/status/1395746724879216646?s=21

A lot of the GOP's optimism comes from historical trends, not actual polling for 2022.

To be fair, polling is unreliable at best. Answering polls have become associated with being a Democrat.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

My Hopium is wearing off with all the Dems jumping ship so early in the cycle.

I was saying it’s hard to be optimistic that Dems will hold the House when so many incumbents are acting as if they believe they won’t.

Except there's just as many Dems that have jumped ship as Republicans so far. And even then, it's a combined 12 incumbents.

[KaiserDave]

Who cares about polls lol

[Matty]

Who cares about polls lol

Yea, a dem +10 result is not happening. Sorry.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who cares about polls lol

Yea, a dem +10 result is not happening. Sorry.

Neither is an R winning the PVI, this poll is good news for wave insurance candidates though. The Rs haven't won the PVI since 2014 R +5 that was 7 yrs ago

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who cares about polls lol

You were the very one that said donate, polls are obviously critical to donations, Whaley and Van DEMING'S need donations they aren't rich like Jackson, Ryan or Crist but they can use donations too

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Democrats surge into a ten point lead!
https://twitter.com/electsworld/status/1395746724879216646?s=21

A lot of the GOP's optimism comes from historical trends, not actual polling for 2022.

To be fair, polling is unreliable at best. Answering polls have become associated with being a Democrat.

Polls struggle when Trump is on the ticket. When he's not, they're largely pretty accurate.

[ElectionsGuy]

Democrats surge into a ten point lead!
https://twitter.com/electsworld/status/1395746724879216646?s=21

A lot of the GOP's optimism comes from historical trends, not actual polling for 2022.

To be fair, polling is unreliable at best. Answering polls have become associated with being a Democrat.

Polls struggle when Trump is on the ticket. When he's not, they're largely pretty accurate.

That's why in the last midterm of a Democratic president, polling accurately reflected Hagan getting re-elected, Cotton winning by single digits, Ernst narrowly beating Braley, Walker narrowly beating Burke, Quinn getting re-elected, Brown beating Hogan, Georgia races going to a runoff because they were so close, and last but not least the national house vote going narrowly Republican after being a Democrat lead or roughly tied for most of the year and many "reputable" pollsters showing Democratic leads.

I'm sure we'll get a lot of THIS ISN'T GOING TO BE 2014 responses, just like the THIS ISN'T GOING TO BE 2016 responses in 2020 I became very familiar with, and like the THIS ISN'T GOING TO BE 2010 responses back in 2014. And, hot take here, we'll get THIS ISN'T GOING TO BE 2020 responses in '24.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democrats surge into a ten point lead!
https://twitter.com/electsworld/status/1395746724879216646?s=21

A lot of the GOP's optimism comes from historical trends, not actual polling for 2022.

To be fair, polling is unreliable at best. Answering polls have become associated with being a Democrat.

Polls struggle when Trump is on the ticket. When he's not, they're largely pretty accurate.

That's why in the last midterm of a Democratic president, polling accurately reflected Hagan getting re-elected, Cotton winning by single digits, Ernst narrowly beating Braley, Walker narrowly beating Burke, Quinn getting re-elected, Brown beating Hogan, Georgia races going to a runoff because they were so close, and last but not least the national house vote going narrowly Republican after being a Democrat lead or roughly tied for most of the year and many "reputable" pollsters showing Democratic leads.

I'm sure we'll get a lot of THIS ISN'T GOING TO BE 2014 responses, just like the THIS ISN'T GOING TO BE 2016 responses in 2020 I became very familiar with, and like the THIS ISN'T GOING TO BE 2010 responses back in 2014. And, hot take here, we'll get THIS ISN'T GOING TO BE 2020 responses in '24.

The Rs lost the PVI In 2016 by 2, 2018 be y 8 and 2020 by four, it's been 7 yes since Rs won the PVI and Biden isn't at 40 percent Approvals like Obama and Trump were


THE ELECTION ISNT TOMORROW ITS 500 DAYS FROM NOW PLENTY OF TIME FOR DS TO WIN

[Xing]

I already know how this is going to end.

If polls continue underestimating Republicans:

"Of course DiAngelo-loving red avatar HACKS bought the polls! I told you all that polls would still have a Republican bias and NO ONE believed me. Pathetic." (even if less than a quarter of Democrats believe the polls)

"Clearly this was just a backlash against (insert news cycle here), and Democrats would've overperformed their polls if not for that. We'll see that come true in 2024."

If polls are accurate or even underestimate Democrats:

"The junky polls may have happened to be right THIS time, but they were better in 2018 than in 2016, and we saw how that worked out in 2020. Red avatars shouldn't get so cocky."

"I KNEW it was just a Trump effect, and of course blue avatar hacks didn't believe me! Their tears are so sweet, and I'll look forward to tasting them again in 2024 when they insist that the polls are wrong only for them to underestimate Democrats!"

This game gets old.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need polls from KS, OH, NC and IA the fact that they are just giving us Approvals and not these polls shows that it's not plus 10

[CookieDamage]

What were the polls like in Spring of 2009?

EDIT: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html

By May, Dems had a lead, but it was only about 5 points and well under 50. From Spring 2009 to e-day 2010, Dems had struggled to get past 41-42 points, while the GOP gradually polled better and closer to 50. They broke away in the summer of 2010 and never were bested by the Dems.

The good thing about this poll is that Dems are at 50 and there's a ten point gap. Bad thing is that this is just one poll, it's well over a year before the general, and other gcb polls have shown a tighter margin similar to 2010.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/Fla_Pol/status/1397493611030327297?s=20

https://twitter.com/Fla_Pol/status/1397330260752994313?s=20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Val Deming's is gonna lose unfortunately

[Lief 🗽]

WOW!
https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1397617004043984898?s=21

[MT Treasurer]

Especially coming from infallible high-quality gold standard Quinnipiac!

[Devils30]

Biden's numbers weren't anything spectacular in the Q poll. Perhaps a lot of people aren't fans of what happened on 1/6 and there isn't a huge Biden 2020/R congress 2022 vote ahead.

[Terlylane]

Matt Richards running to replace Jody Hice.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/georgia-house-race-matt-richards-jody-hice-seat

[CookieDamage]

The closer to 50 Dems remain the better chances they have. Regardless of an individual poll's reliability, a number of polls showing Dems in the 48-50 range is good news, and it'll be even better the closer we get to Nov 2022.

However, it really isn't crucial until Summer of 22. By then, polls will be important, Biden approval will be important, the state of the economy (unemp., jobs numbers, etc) will be important. If Biden has an approval like Trump's (~40-42%), 2022 will be a bad year, only tempered perhaps by a good economy. However, the economy in 2018 was good and the GOP was still swept out of the house. Conversely, Obama's approval in the summer of 2010 wasn't atrocious, but the economy wasn't decent and the Tea Party backlash was heavy.

If Biden remains above water and the economy is doing well, Dems have a very good chance of maintaining the House and Senate. Although, the spread and normalization of QAnon and other conspiracies among the GOP voter base can be extremely problematic.