2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread
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May 09, 2021, 06:19:34 PM

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Author Topic: 2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 9752 times)
SnowLabrador
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« Reply #225 on: May 02, 2021, 02:30:30 PM »

I'm going to try not to vomit, thanks.
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ERM64man
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« Reply #226 on: May 02, 2021, 02:41:26 PM »

Changed the title.
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Unbeatable Titan Eva Copa
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« Reply #227 on: May 02, 2021, 03:21:02 PM »

Shame. Heís totally undeserving of the gavel, as a person.
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Mitch O'Donnell, Mayor of Louisville
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« Reply #228 on: May 02, 2021, 05:32:55 PM »

I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP selects this dream team:
Speaker: Marjorie Taylor Greene
Majority Leader: Lauren Boebert
Majority Whip: Matt Gaetz
Caucus Chair: Madison Cawthorn
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #229 on: May 02, 2021, 05:46:41 PM »
« Edited: May 02, 2021, 05:50:35 PM by MR. KAYNE WEST »

We have 500 days til the Election D's are gonna win WI, PA, NH, GA and 1 wave insurence seats from IA, OH, NC and if Sand jumps in against Grassley Ryan and Sand will be in Senate.

Hakeem JEFFERIES is gonna be Speaker D's lead on Generic ballot 47:42

Don't tell me about that 2018 Election stuff we won OH, IA, NC and FL by a PVI rating of 5 pts the same exact lead we lead on Generic ballot, in 2008/12 if you want to argue about a PVI go argue with pbower2A
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #230 on: May 02, 2021, 05:54:57 PM »

I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP selects this dream team:
Speaker: Marjorie Taylor Greene
Majority Leader: Lauren Boebert
Majority Whip: Matt Gaetz
Caucus Chair: Madison Cawthorn

You know a majority of the GOP caucus (& in the case of the Speakership, all of it or nearly all of it, depending on just how big their majority is) would actually have to actively elect them to serve in those positions, right? Say what one may about the House Republicans, but I'd personally be very surprised if the same caucus that literally just voted 2 months ago to retain Liz Cheney in her role by a vote of 145-61 would elect any of these people to any position in their leadership ranks.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #231 on: May 02, 2021, 05:57:54 PM »

You really want to count your chickens with this GOP? And how exactly would McCarthy become Speaker before you 2023? If you are advocating what I think you are you need to edit your post.
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ERM64man
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« Reply #232 on: May 02, 2021, 06:08:10 PM »

For Speaker, would Mike Garcia in CA-25 vote for Kevin McCarthy or Marjorie Taylor Greene?
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Mitch O'Donnell, Mayor of Louisville
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« Reply #233 on: May 02, 2021, 06:15:29 PM »

I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP selects this dream team:
Speaker: Marjorie Taylor Greene
Majority Leader: Lauren Boebert
Majority Whip: Matt Gaetz
Caucus Chair: Madison Cawthorn

You know a majority of the GOP caucus (& in the case of the Speakership, all of it or nearly all of it, depending on just how big their majority is) would actually have to actively elect them to serve in those positions, right? Say what one may about the House Republicans, but I'd personally be very surprised if the same caucus that literally just voted 2 months ago to retain Liz Cheney in her role by a vote of 145-61 would elect any of these people to any position in their leadership ranks.

Remember in 2010 when the Tea party primaried out all the moderates? It is possible that the number of people in the (as John Boehner puts it) crazy caucus could increase.
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Forumlurker
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« Reply #234 on: May 02, 2021, 06:17:03 PM »

All hail our totally amazing and not at all communist/anti-American overlords. God bless Fox, please donít hurt me.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #235 on: May 02, 2021, 06:31:23 PM »

All hail our totally amazing and not at all communist/anti-American overlords. God bless Fox, please donít hurt me.

Who else is going to defend us from president Biden's diet regulation agenda!?
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #236 on: May 04, 2021, 10:07:01 AM »

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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #237 on: May 04, 2021, 10:12:01 AM »
« Edited: May 04, 2021, 10:15:54 AM by MR. KAYNE WEST »

Yeah, but we didn't even win TX 6 and polls told us that we were gonna make the Runoff

We can very well have a divided Congress RH and DS just like in 2010, 2012, 2018 Outparty won H and Inparty won S

I take all these polls with a grain of salt, it would be different if we weren't on a Covid Recession


Just like QU said Biden plus 14, I expect the Rs to take the H, it can indeed happen they have won the H, they won H in 16/20 Elections

Anyways the reason by the polls are inflated is due to approval of Stimulus, the Rs are threatening to block more stimulus when Unemployment is gonna be renewed again in September, especially the 300 extra for unemployment, then where are Biden Approvals gonna be, we have 30 T in debt and he proposed 6T in new spending
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beesley
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« Reply #238 on: May 04, 2021, 10:19:42 AM »

https://eu.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2021/04/08/congress-south-mississippi-sheriff-run-against-steven-palazzo-2022/7138241002/

Didn't see anyone had mentioned this - Steven Palazzo facing a credible primary challenge.
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gracile
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« Reply #239 on: May 04, 2021, 10:26:21 AM »

The NRCC is adding a ten more districts to their target list:



CA-07, CA-16, CA-36, IL-03, MI-05, NY-04, NY-20, NY-25, NY-26, PA-06

(Obviously, all of these seats are pretty big stretches in their current forms, but it's likely in anticipation of these seats being changed significantly in redistricting.)
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #240 on: May 04, 2021, 10:29:14 AM »

The NRCC is adding a ten more districts to their target list:



CA-07, CA-16, CA-36, IL-03, MI-05, NY-04, NY-20, NY-25, NY-26, PA-06

(Obviously, all of these seats are pretty big stretches in their current forms, but it's likely in anticipation of these seats being changed significantly in redistricting.)

Lol they actually think Dems wonít draw safe seats for incumbents in IL and NY?  Tonko isnít coming anywhere close to losing as long as he has Albany and Schenectady counties in his district.
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Josh Shapiro for Governor
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« Reply #241 on: May 04, 2021, 11:34:40 AM »
« Edited: May 04, 2021, 11:38:43 AM by Josh Shapiro for Governor »

The NRCC is adding a ten more districts to their target list:



CA-07, CA-16, CA-36, IL-03, MI-05, NY-04, NY-20, NY-25, NY-26, PA-06

(Obviously, all of these seats are pretty big stretches in their current forms, but it's likely in anticipation of these seats being changed significantly in redistricting.)

Higgins won reelection by over forty points in NY-26 lol.

I can't imagine the seat will be drawn to be any more favorable to the GOP.
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Xing
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« Reply #242 on: May 04, 2021, 11:54:03 AM »

There's casting a wide net, and there's thinking that districts which Biden won by huge margins are winnable. They obviously don't need these kinds of seats to win the House, and wave insurance is fine, but adding seats like IL-03, NY-20, and NY-26 is insane.
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Devils30
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« Reply #243 on: May 04, 2021, 11:57:22 AM »

If anything the Dems will add another Buffalo, Rochester seat. NY-4 will move into Queens and probably get safer and some blue parts of 4 will go into NY-1 or 2. One of 1/2 will be a GOP vote sink on LI's south shore.
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Devils30
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« Reply #244 on: May 04, 2021, 12:02:46 PM »



Change is a junk pollster but the generic ballot hasn't altered much since fall 2020. The ballot had a lot of D+4-8 going into election day, not the double digits like 2018.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2020_generic_congressional_vote-6722.html#polls

Dems should be realistic, the goal is making gains in NY, CA, IL (CA GOP pickups included three Biden +10) and maybe ones like MD-1 while hoping commissions give them better maps in MI, CO and courts in WI, PA. 225-230 seats is probably the absolute best case along with 53-47 in Senate.

Dems not wasting millions in Florida could be an unintended shot in the arm as well.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #245 on: May 04, 2021, 12:04:09 PM »

The point is to scare these Democrats so they make more incumbent friendly demands before redistricting. Fairly obvious.  A lot of those upstate seats were relatively close in 2014 and its not like upstate has trended D since 2012. I guess NY04 is to scare Rice but in reality you can just precinct trade between NY01/NY02 so it would be extremely foolish for D's to be scared in Long Island. Meanwhile on upstate I would say on average the number of Dem seats would go up with a more aggressive map but 3 sinks is probably what's needed to placate incumbents.
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Spectator
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« Reply #246 on: May 04, 2021, 01:44:10 PM »

The point is to scare these Democrats so they make more incumbent friendly demands before redistricting. Fairly obvious.  A lot of those upstate seats were relatively close in 2014 and its not like upstate has trended D since 2012. I guess NY04 is to scare Rice but in reality you can just precinct trade between NY01/NY02 so it would be extremely foolish for D's to be scared in Long Island. Meanwhile on upstate I would say on average the number of Dem seats would go up with a more aggressive map but 3 sinks is probably what's needed to placate incumbents.

You can get four pretty solidly blue seats Upstate. Rochester, Buffalo, Albany, and Syracuse/Ithaca.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #247 on: May 04, 2021, 01:57:16 PM »

The point is to scare these Democrats so they make more incumbent friendly demands before redistricting. Fairly obvious.  A lot of those upstate seats were relatively close in 2014 and its not like upstate has trended D since 2012. I guess NY04 is to scare Rice but in reality you can just precinct trade between NY01/NY02 so it would be extremely foolish for D's to be scared in Long Island. Meanwhile on upstate I would say on average the number of Dem seats would go up with a more aggressive map but 3 sinks is probably what's needed to placate incumbents.

You can get four pretty solidly blue seats Upstate. Rochester, Buffalo, Albany, and Syracuse/Ithaca.

You shore up the incumbents first. Makes more sense to give Delgado Ithaca . Better bet for Syracuse is to keep it swingy but double bunk Katko/Tenney.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #248 on: May 04, 2021, 02:05:00 PM »

The point is to scare these Democrats so they make more incumbent friendly demands before redistricting. Fairly obvious.  A lot of those upstate seats were relatively close in 2014 and its not like upstate has trended D since 2012. I guess NY04 is to scare Rice but in reality you can just precinct trade between NY01/NY02 so it would be extremely foolish for D's to be scared in Long Island. Meanwhile on upstate I would say on average the number of Dem seats would go up with a more aggressive map but 3 sinks is probably what's needed to placate incumbents.

You can get four pretty solidly blue seats Upstate. Rochester, Buffalo, Albany, and Syracuse/Ithaca.

You shore up the incumbents first. Makes more sense to give Delgado Ithaca . Better bet for Syracuse is to keep it swingy but double bunk Katko/Tenney.

Wouldnít it also make sense to give Delgado Binghamton?  That way you are basically recreating Maurice Hincheyís old district.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #249 on: May 04, 2021, 02:47:22 PM »



Look Ron, I think you've generally done a good job in office. But this is ridiculous.

Though it was equally ridiculous when Cuomo and Newsom kept NY-27 and CA-50 vacant forever.
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