2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1461326486108004361?t=d6j-jomz-T1Nm9gCuKH...

Here’s how NV-SEN and AZ-SEN are still Lean D:

They aren’t.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

R+8 is among Adults, among RV, it's just R+5 per Quinnipiac:

Democrats   41%
Republicans 46%

[Sir Mohamed]

Q was discredited in 2018 and 2020 for heavy D-bias. Did they change to the opposite now? One way or the other, I won't take this pollster seriously until they get at least one election cycle straight.

[Pollster]

Prettymuch the only good news for Democrats at the current moment is that this round of redistricting will leave them with far more districts able to withstand an R wave than 2010.

[MT Treasurer]

*snip*

Here’s how NV-SEN and AZ-SEN are still Lean D:

They aren’t.

I know, that was the point. These races never were Lean (much less Likely) D in the first place, so this isn’t just my overreaction to recent polling (which, as we’ve seen, can be more volatile than one expects, suggesting perhaps that things are less 'polarized' than they’re made out to be). I still think Democrats have a good chance of holding NH/GA even in this environment (although I’d argue that Republicans are favored in GA), but even when I was expecting a better midterm for Democrats than I currently am, I didn’t really understand why people were so bullish about Democratic chances in PA/AZ/NV while simultaneously being more pessimistic about Democrats in NH/GA for some reason, even though the D lean/trend has consistently been favoring Democrats in those two states. From a pure 'fundamentals' perspective, Democrats were always going to struggle in PA/AZ/NV in a midterm under a D trifecta, which is why it made so little sense to argue that the Senate was far less likely to flip than the House (where gerrymandering can significantly mitigate Democratic losses). I’m not saying that any of these races are already lost for Democrats or anything (and I do think Republicans are still vulnerable in PA, especially if Parnell somehow really ends up as the likely nominee there), but I’d be surprised if the House/Senate didn’t move in unison in this election.

It’s just hilarious that a few months ago, picking Republicans to win NV-SEN was considered a "bold" prediction.

[wbrocks67]

Prettymuch the only good news for Democrats at the current moment is that this round of redistricting will leave them with far more districts able to withstand an R wave than 2010.

This is why people need to stop the whole "GOP will win 60 seats!!!!" thing. There aren't going to be anywhere close to that up for grabs, even in a red wave.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

*snip*

Here’s how NV-SEN and AZ-SEN are still Lean D:

They aren’t.

I know, that was the point. These races never were Lean (much less Likely) D in the first place, so this isn’t just my overreaction to recent polling (which, as we’ve seen, can be more volatile than one expects, suggesting perhaps that things are less 'polarized' than they’re made out to be). I still think Democrats have a good chance of holding NH/GA even in this environment (although I’d argue that Republicans are favored in GA), but even when I was expecting a better midterm for Democrats than I currently am, I didn’t really understand why people were so bullish about Democratic chances in PA/AZ/NV while simultaneously being more pessimistic about Democrats in NH/GA for some reason, even though the D lean/trend has consistently been favoring Democrats in those two states. From a pure 'fundamentals' perspective, Democrats were always going to struggle in PA/AZ/NV in a midterm under a D trifecta, which is why it made so little sense to argue that the Senate was far less likely to flip than the House (where gerrymandering can significantly mitigate Democratic losses). I’m not saying that any of these races are already lost for Democrats or anything (and I do think Republicans are still vulnerable in PA, especially if Parnell somehow really ends up as the likely nominee there), but I’d be surprised if the House/Senate didn’t move in unison in this election.

It’s just hilarious that a few months ago, picking Republicans to win NV-SEN was considered a "bold" prediction.

Biden Approvals in a USA Today or ABC poll won't be at 38 or 41 percent a year from now, they will be at 50 percent

Second of all look Ryan, Fetterman Mandela Barnes and Warnock and CCM and Hassan have never lost before, wbrooks is right when was the last time RS cracked the blue wall 2016 6 yrs ago with a flawed Hillary, you guys only won CO in 2014 and you picked up no blue states in Senate 2018 or 2020 and Trump beat a flawed Hillary


Brnovich is not Ducey, Ducey is Cindy McCain buddy Brnovich isn't Cindy McCain best Budd, that's why Brnovich hasn't lead in a single poll against Kelly

Last poll taken has Kelly leading every R 43/39 percent

[Senator Incitatus]

Prettymuch the only good news for Democrats at the current moment is that this round of redistricting will leave them with far more districts able to withstand an R wave than 2010.

This is why people need to stop the whole "GOP will win 60 seats!!!!" thing. There aren't going to be anywhere close to that up for grabs, even in a red wave.

edit: Totally misinterpreted the post as being about the Senate not the House. Sixty seats is within reach for Republicans but obviously not expected. But read on for a discussion of just how out of reach the Senate is about to become for Democrats.

I'm pretty sure the "60 seats" talk is in reference to post-2024, in which case it actually looks more likely than not. They need ten of the following thirteen seats, all of which Biden won by single digits or lost:

AZ-2022
GA-2022
NH-2022
NV-2022
---------
AZ-2024
ME-2024
MI-2024
MN-2024
MT-2024
NV-2024
OH-2024
PA-2024
WI-2024
WV-2024

This assumes no losses. Losses are definitely possible in 2022 with the wrong candidates in PA and NC but are likely not happening in 2024, where Republicans just need to defend TX and FL.

It also assumes in the opposite direction that none of the roughly Biden +15 states (OR, VA, CO, NJ, NM) become surprisingly competitive, which they of course could if it's a true landslide environment with the right candidates. (I'm keeping my eye on Bremer in Colorado.)

The map is really against them and the saving grace might be that 2024 gives some of those states time to distance themselves from Biden if he's not running or looks like a goner.

[MT Treasurer]

^The one thing that does give me pause is that Republicans have a real history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory every single time the Class I Senate seats are up for election. It’s somewhat comparable to the bad luck Democrats have had with the Class III map although more attributable to self-inflicted wounds in the case of the GOP (e.g. not prioritizing WV-SEN/MT-SEN in 2018, likely not prioritizing AZ-SEN 2024 if Sinema wins the D primary, nominating abysmal candidates in some of these races, etc.).

[2016]

Prettymuch the only good news for Democrats at the current moment is that this round of redistricting will leave them with far more districts able to withstand an R wave than 2010.

This is why people need to stop the whole "GOP will win 60 seats!!!!" thing. There aren't going to be anywhere close to that up for grabs, even in a red wave.

Maybe not 60 but certainly 30 in a Red Wave!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs aren't gonna beat Bob Casey Jr and MT Treasurer talking about Rs retaining PA in 22 and AZ Kelly losing is laughable because those seatsare expected to go D


Toomey would have lost in 2016 if Sestak not McGonty were nominated he barely beat her but 2 percent

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Rs aren't gonna beat Bob Casey Jr and MT Treasurer talking about Rs retaining PA in 22 and AZ Kelly losing is laughable because those seatsare expected to go D


Toomey would have lost in 2016 if Sestak not McGonty were nominated he barely beat her but 2 percent

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1461376150651998217

[progressive85]

Prettymuch the only good news for Democrats at the current moment is that this round of redistricting will leave them with far more districts able to withstand an R wave than 2010.

I think the Republican tide is going to sweep out a lot of Democrats that appear safe now.  It's going to be at least a 60 seat pickup.  The Democrats, by having Biden as their President, are going down in a historic way in 2022.

Now, in Trump's second midterm, 2026, the Democrats will probably reverse the miserable fortunes from the first 5 years of the 20s decade but it will take 5 years to do it.

The party needs to completely rebuilt.  It has the trifecta today but it's basically useless under our current system.  This is not a Parliamentary system and just because Nancy Pelosi is the Speaker (Prime Minister in other countries) that doesn't mean the party can put forward an agenda, run on it, and deliver on those promises.

[Mr.Phips]

Prettymuch the only good news for Democrats at the current moment is that this round of redistricting will leave them with far more districts able to withstand an R wave than 2010.

I think the Republican tide is going to sweep out a lot of Democrats that appear safe now.  It's going to be at least a 60 seat pickup.  The Democrats, by having Biden as their President, are going down in a historic way in 2022.

Now, in Trump's second midterm, 2026, the Democrats will probably reverse the miserable fortunes from the first 5 years of the 20s decade but it will take 5 years to do it.

The party needs to completely rebuilt.  It has the trifecta today but it's basically useless under our current system.  This is not a Parliamentary system and just because Nancy Pelosi is the Speaker (Prime Minister in other countries) that doesn't mean the party can put forward an agenda, run on it, and deliver on those promises.

If it’s actually a 60 pickup Biden will probably announce he’s not running again the next day.  I mean, what would the point be with a 273-162 Republican House? 

[progressive85]

Prettymuch the only good news for Democrats at the current moment is that this round of redistricting will leave them with far more districts able to withstand an R wave than 2010.

I think the Republican tide is going to sweep out a lot of Democrats that appear safe now.  It's going to be at least a 60 seat pickup.  The Democrats, by having Biden as their President, are going down in a historic way in 2022.

Now, in Trump's second midterm, 2026, the Democrats will probably reverse the miserable fortunes from the first 5 years of the 20s decade but it will take 5 years to do it.

The party needs to completely rebuilt.  It has the trifecta today but it's basically useless under our current system.  This is not a Parliamentary system and just because Nancy Pelosi is the Speaker (Prime Minister in other countries) that doesn't mean the party can put forward an agenda, run on it, and deliver on those promises.

If it’s actually a 60 pickup Biden will probably announce he’s not running again the next day.  I mean, what would the point be with a 273-162 Republican House? 

He can't run.  He's practically a lame duck and there's still technically 3 years to go.  I don't think some of the hardcore Democrat partisans realize how low the opinion is of him with young progressives.  He cannot win a primary and is not even desired as the nominee in '24.  That makes him practically cancelled by everyone except those that just like him because he's got a D next to his name.

[Mr.Phips]

Prettymuch the only good news for Democrats at the current moment is that this round of redistricting will leave them with far more districts able to withstand an R wave than 2010.

I think the Republican tide is going to sweep out a lot of Democrats that appear safe now.  It's going to be at least a 60 seat pickup.  The Democrats, by having Biden as their President, are going down in a historic way in 2022.

Now, in Trump's second midterm, 2026, the Democrats will probably reverse the miserable fortunes from the first 5 years of the 20s decade but it will take 5 years to do it.

The party needs to completely rebuilt.  It has the trifecta today but it's basically useless under our current system.  This is not a Parliamentary system and just because Nancy Pelosi is the Speaker (Prime Minister in other countries) that doesn't mean the party can put forward an agenda, run on it, and deliver on those promises.

If it’s actually a 60 pickup Biden will probably announce he’s not running again the next day.  I mean, what would the point be with a 273-162 Republican House? 

He can't run.  He's practically a lame duck and there's still technically 3 years to go.  I don't think some of the hardcore Democrat partisans realize how low the opinion is of him with young progressives.  He cannot win a primary and is not even desired as the nominee in '24.  That makes him practically cancelled by everyone except those that just like him because he's got a D next to his name.

Unfortunately it’s highly  unlikely that anyone would challenge him in a primary.

[2016]

Bidens Job Approval is under water in Safe Democratic Districts like Frank Mrvan (IN-1). Democrats will still hold that District BUT him underwater there doesn't bode very well for 2022.

[Pericles]

Bidens Job Approval is under water in Safe Democratic Districts like Frank Mrvan (IN-1). Democrats will still hold that District BUT him underwater there doesn't bode very well for 2022.

I told you it was a sleeper race, I wouldn't be surprised to see that seat flip actually.

[2016]

Bidens Job Approval is under water in Safe Democratic Districts like Frank Mrvan (IN-1). Democrats will still hold that District BUT him underwater there doesn't bode very well for 2022.

I told you it was a sleeper race, I wouldn't be surprised to see that seat flip actually.

Maybe you are right? We shall see!

[Roll Roons]

In a long-overdue move:
https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1461692451727441925

[Mr.Phips]

In a long-overdue move:
https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1461692451727441925

Yes long overdue.  Dems better hope to hell they can somehow keep their Senate losses at a seat or two.  Otherwise, they likely aren’t getting the Senate back until the 2030s.

[MT Treasurer]

In a long-overdue move:
*SNIP*

The replies to this tweet/ratings change announcement illustrate just how much Twitter has devolved into a cesspit of delusional, irrational, largely Democratic partisans under Trump. "Don’t move those races to Tossup yet because Trump is still in the headlines" — poor souls.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/PollWatch2020/status/1461800671716519946?s=20

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1462475479018004483

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/PollWatch2020/status/1461800671716519946?s=20

This poll is meaningless it's 1000 days til Election day