2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1459760630668283904?s=20

[jaichind]

But ABC had Biden +17 in WI in 2020 so I am not that sure we can take what they produce seriously.  Still, this seems to show that there is no bump for Biden/Dem for passing BIF.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

JFC. If it's true, it's not Red Wave anymore. It's Red Tsunami.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

JFC. If it's true, it's not Red Wave anymore. It's Red Tsunami.

NOT

No it's not Rs are trailing in 304 Senate seats D's are gonna win Man of Govs and keep the Sen and lose Seats on Cal, NY and IL for Redistricting stop trying to project a R Landsoa yr before an Election Biden and Trump are statistically tied just like they were deadlocked in 2020

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

JFC. If it's true, it's not Red Wave anymore. It's Red Tsunami.

NOT

No it's not Rs are trailing in 304 Senate seats D's are gonna win Man of Govs and keep the Sen and lose Seats on Cal, NY and IL for Redistricting stop trying to project a R Landsoa yr before an Election Biden and Trump are statistically tied just like they were deadlocked in 2020

[Agafin]

Dems in disarray (for real)

[Woody]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its a 304 map state polls show DS netting WI and PA Sen and GA going to a Runoff, there AROUND THE FLAG IN THE 304 CORRIDOR RS are Favs to take H aNd DS are Favs in the SEN SO


BUT, RS ARE GONNA LOSE STS IN CAL , iL and NY

BEASLEY AND DEMING'S WERENT GONNA WIN THEY REMIND VOTERS TOO MUCH OF Kamala Harria


The idea that Election Guy says that Issa ,Nunes and Garcia aren't gonna lose in Pelosi Cali is silly, Newsom won with almost 70 percent and Padilla us gonna help in Southern Cali, he is Latino and he wasn't on recall ballot

For me, Newsom isnt important this is his last term anyways but will I vote for him over Harris in 28 Primary yes I will, Harris messed up the Border
 

[SnowLabrador]

It's looking grim for Democrats, sure, but I don't see them losing every race by double digits.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's looking grim for Democrats, sure, but I don't see them losing every race by double digits.

State by state polls in AZ, PA and NV show DS holding their own in  S, RS have to crack the blue wall not DS cracking Red wall

Unless it's for wave insurance, it's still a yr before the Election

[ElectionsGuy]

The generic ballot polling at this point is more random than 2014's polling was. R+10 is still closer to reality than Economist's D+7, or CNN's D+5. Given we saw roughly R+7/8 results in VA/NJ, and Biden's approval in RCP was -8 at the time, we now have a decent idea of what's realistic and what isn't.

[Senator Incitatus]

Disaster poll. This poll would be something like a 60-70 seat gain for Republicans regardless. This is the "Pascrell in danger" scenario. The only saving grace for Democrats at this point may be gerrymandering CA and NY as much as possible to keep gains minimal.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1459902596693602311

[Mr.Phips]

Disaster poll. The only saving grace for Democrats at this point may be gerrymandering CA and NY as much as possible. This poll would be something like a 60-70 seat gain for Republicans regardless. This is the "Pascrell in danger" scenario.

This would likely be more like R+50.  Something like that would pretty much relegate the Democratic Party to the minor party Republicans were from 1932-1938.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Disaster poll. This poll would be something like a 60-70 seat gain for Republicans regardless. This is the "Pascrell in danger" scenario. The only saving grace for Democrats at this point may be gerrymandering CA and NY as much as possible to keep gains minimal.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1459902596693602311

You are still going by polls a yr before the Election
It's the 304 map will be duplicated some polls have Biden at 50/45 where he needs to be duplicate the Blue wall while others show a 40%

[Roll Roons]

I'm highly skeptical, but a wave of that size probably would actually make seats like VA-10 and MN-03 competitive again.

[Mr.Phips]

I'm highly skeptical, but a wave of that size probably would actually make seats like VA-10 and MN-03 competitive again.

VA-10 likely gets redrawn to be even more Dem than now, but I guess it’s possible you could see a 2010 VA-11 like close result in MN-03.

[NerdyBohemian]

I swear this country is an abusive relationship with the Republicans.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I swear this country is an abusive relationship with the Republicans.
[/quote

Rs are popular like DeSantis because low taxes resonate in an inflationary Economy

Not because Rs are an Insurrectionists party

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

VA-10 is not flipping yall.
But I could see anything Biden +12-16 could hold some surprise flips

[OSR stands with Israel]

Disaster poll. The only saving grace for Democrats at this point may be gerrymandering CA and NY as much as possible. This poll would be something like a 60-70 seat gain for Republicans regardless. This is the "Pascrell in danger" scenario.

This would likely be more like R+50.  Something like that would pretty much relegate the Democratic Party to the minor party Republicans were from 1932-1938.

Democrats would have to lose at least a 100 seats for that and even then they wouldn’t be as bad as a position as the GOP were from 1932-1938.

[Mr.Phips]

Disaster poll. The only saving grace for Democrats at this point may be gerrymandering CA and NY as much as possible. This poll would be something like a 60-70 seat gain for Republicans regardless. This is the "Pascrell in danger" scenario.

This would likely be more like R+50.  Something like that would pretty much relegate the Democratic Party to the minor party Republicans were from 1932-1938.

Democrats would have to lose at least a 100 seats for that and even then they wouldn’t be as bad as a position as the GOP were from 1932-1938.

Well you have to remember that in 1932-1938 Dems about 20-30 very conservative members from the south.  So really, you should add 20-30 to the Republican number to get the true level of conservative strength in congress then.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Disaster poll. The only saving grace for Democrats at this point may be gerrymandering CA and NY as much as possible. This poll would be something like a 60-70 seat gain for Republicans regardless. This is the "Pascrell in danger" scenario.

This would likely be more like R+50.  Something like that would pretty much relegate the Democratic Party to the minor party Republicans were from 1932-1938.

Democrats would have to lose at least a 100 seats for that and even then they wouldn’t be as bad as a position as the GOP were from 1932-1938.

Well you have to remember that in 1932-1938 Dems about 20-30 very conservative members from the south.  So really, you should add 20-30 to the Republican number to get the true level of conservative strength in congress then.

Even then republicans still would have to get to 280-290 seats to get to that level . I’d say 1958-1966 is a better comparison if you make that adjustment than 1932-1938.

[Sir Mohamed]

Disaster poll. The only saving grace for Democrats at this point may be gerrymandering CA and NY as much as possible. This poll would be something like a 60-70 seat gain for Republicans regardless. This is the "Pascrell in danger" scenario.

This would likely be more like R+50.  Something like that would pretty much relegate the Democratic Party to the minor party Republicans were from 1932-1938.

Democrats would have to lose at least a 100 seats for that and even then they wouldn’t be as bad as a position as the GOP were from 1932-1938.

Well you have to remember that in 1932-1938 Dems about 20-30 very conservative members from the south.  So really, you should add 20-30 to the Republican number to get the true level of conservative strength in congress then.

Even then republicans still would have to get to 280-290 seats to get to that level . I’d say 1958-1966 is a better comparison if you make that adjustment than 1932-1938.

There aren't enough competitive or semi-competitive seats today for either party get below 170-175 seats. The GOP in 2014 at 247 seats was pretty much maxed out.

If HRC was elected in 2016 and 2018 ended up an R wave, I don't think the GOP would have made more than 10-15 seats net gain.

[Mr.Phips]

Disaster poll. The only saving grace for Democrats at this point may be gerrymandering CA and NY as much as possible. This poll would be something like a 60-70 seat gain for Republicans regardless. This is the "Pascrell in danger" scenario.

This would likely be more like R+50.  Something like that would pretty much relegate the Democratic Party to the minor party Republicans were from 1932-1938.

Democrats would have to lose at least a 100 seats for that and even then they wouldn’t be as bad as a position as the GOP were from 1932-1938.

Well you have to remember that in 1932-1938 Dems about 20-30 very conservative members from the south.  So really, you should add 20-30 to the Republican number to get the true level of conservative strength in congress then.

Even then republicans still would have to get to 280-290 seats to get to that level . I’d say 1958-1966 is a better comparison if you make that adjustment than 1932-1938.

For the two year periods after 1958 and 1964, I’d agree.  1961-1965 had the more normal Dem level of around 260 seats (which would equal around 230-240 Republican seats today).  I’d throw in 1975-1981 as a period when Republicans were pretty close to irrelevant as well (Dems held between 277 and 292 seats).   Basically if Dems fall below 2014 levels (188 seats) in 2022, they are pretty much as bad off as Republicans were at their 1959-1960, 1965-1966, and 1975-1980 periods of complete irrelevance downballot.

[Mr.Phips]

Disaster poll. The only saving grace for Democrats at this point may be gerrymandering CA and NY as much as possible. This poll would be something like a 60-70 seat gain for Republicans regardless. This is the "Pascrell in danger" scenario.

This would likely be more like R+50.  Something like that would pretty much relegate the Democratic Party to the minor party Republicans were from 1932-1938.

Democrats would have to lose at least a 100 seats for that and even then they wouldn’t be as bad as a position as the GOP were from 1932-1938.

Well you have to remember that in 1932-1938 Dems about 20-30 very conservative members from the south.  So really, you should add 20-30 to the Republican number to get the true level of conservative strength in congress then.

Even then republicans still would have to get to 280-290 seats to get to that level . I’d say 1958-1966 is a better comparison if you make that adjustment than 1932-1938.

There aren't enough competitive or semi-competitive seats today for either party get below 170-175 seats. The GOP in 2014 at 247 seats was pretty much maxed out.

If HRC was elected in 2016 and 2018 ended up an R wave, I don't think the GOP would have made more than 10-15 seats net gain.

I tend to agree.  It will be interesting to see if Dems fall below their 2014 floor of 188 seats in 2022.  That’s an important psychological barrier.