2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Devils30]

Should also be noted that CBS/YouGov estimating 226-209 based on an R+2 result.

Which means a 50/50 D+0 result on the GCB could result in a tied house or 1 or 2 in either direction.

The NY-19 was not consistent with R+2 whatsoever. Pollsters are trying to use their 2014 model with a mix of 2018 and a mix of finding underrepresented Trump non-responders. It's a mess. The GOP is assuring us they are too big to fail and the media is going right along...we shall see.

[Devils30]

Would explain the even generic ballot polls and the D+5 NY-19 results a bit.

[Devils30]

The most comparable generic ballots so far are 2002 (unprecedented incumbent victory) or 2014 (humiliating incumbent defeat).
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1564411069526843398?s=21&t=4q2kvDU...

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/29/us/politics/gop-trump-midterms.amp.html

Private polling shared with The New York Times showed the Republican candidate in the 19th District with a 36-percentage-point advantage among independents, driven by their concerns about the economy. But it’s hard to tell how many independents might have made the effort if they weren’t at the polls already for Primary Day.


And the NYT is buying into that poll as anything but complete garbage??

[Devils30]

It's time we take the chances of a Dem House seriously.

[Devils30]

Trafalgar out with R+6 (47-41). Their last poll was R+5.

Alaska turnout was around 67% of 2018 and 55% of 2020. Yes, turnout patterns will change in the midterms but how much?

[Devils30]

Glad they're realizing that much hyped Yesli Vega is now a flop candidate.

They should start more moves like PA-7, VA-2, NJ-7 to tossup.

[Devils30]

Glad they're realizing that much hyped Yesli Vega is now a flop candidate.

They should start more moves like PA-7, VA-2, NJ-7 to tossup.

Kean and Kiggans will probably still win, but I agree those districts are more like a tossup. It’s just hard to see Kean being a sizable favorite in a Biden+5 seat when Republicans are losing Trump+10 or Biden+1 seats.

Eh, I think Luria will still pull it out. Luria has much more $, and has a lot more visibility now due to the 1/6 panel. Kiggans seems like another hyped candidate like Vega that hasn't really borne out as much as people said they would.

A lot are saying Kean (and Steel, others for that matter) because they outran the top of the ticket in 2020. But was 1/6 and Dobbs the final straw for these ancestral R voters? Judging by the special elections in Lincoln, Rochester and NY-19, the answer might just be yes. The Dem in MN-1 outran Tina Smith by 8% and Biden by 6% in Olmsted. NJ-7 is 51% college and this group is VERY angry. Not to mention Malinowski already represents all of Kean's state senate seat so he isn't flying in with no name recognition.

[Devils30]

InsiderAdvantage (R) has D+1, 45-44.

Their last poll had R+1, 45-44 at the beginning of August.

https://amgreatness.com/2022/09/06/joe-bidens-approval-rating-surges-to-45-percent-in-new-insider-advantage-poll/

Fascinating racial crosstabs here-

Among white likely voters, 46.2 percent approved of Biden’s job performance. Among black likely voters, 56.9 percent approved. Only 35.8 percent of all other races approved of the job Biden is doing.

If this is even close to accurate, this midterm election has the potential to shatter traditional coalitions more so than any other one in recent history.

It isn't

[Devils30]

Rasmussen GCB at R+4, 46-42

https://t.co/FUHcEEvhfE

GOPs biggest concern now is the non-Rassy, Trafalgar, news nation polls show Dems up 4-6. Without the R+5 outliers in the average, Dems would have a number sufficient to get them control of the House. Overall none of these pollsters have any transparency and I won't buy Insider Advantage showing Dems stronger in FL than GA.

[Devils30]

Harvard-Harris GCB is at D+2, 51/49.  Their last poll in July was 50-50.  They never have undecideds; they must exclude them from their calculations.

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/HHP_Sept2022_KeyFindings.pdf

Sep. 7-8, 1854 RV.

This poll has support for Dobbs way higher than anything else, D+2 generic ballot is honestly a very solid result for them if you look at the entire sample including Trump favorability.

[Devils30]

Good news: the 538 general ballot is now D+2.0, the highest since last November.

Bad news: the last time Democrat’s had this “big” of a lead, they lost VA and almost NJ

I feel like the VA and NJ races FWIW were very outside of what was going on nationally and very specific races. VA had a ton of local headwinds while Murphy also had to contend with NJ not usually being willing to re-elect a sitting Dem gov.

I think to the PA result where the Supreme Court race was R+1, which lined up perfectly with a national GCB of D+2, compared to 2020 (Biden wins by 1 with +4 nationally)

The GOP actually rigged the nomination for Youngkin by having a convention and NJ's county line basically rigged it for Ciatterelli. Both were very strong candidates.

[Devils30]

All of the ratings sites are just reacting to polls. They have no more clue than all of us but won’t admit it.

[Devils30]

ABC/WashPo has R+1 with registered and Rs getting 18% of the black vote and Trump 23% in 2024. The topline isn't at all odd but if you expected a quality poll that made sense, this won't be it. We are going to have historic uncertainty on election day with all these polling misses the past 5 years.

[Devils30]

Been a strong September for republicans. Need to keep Dobbs/Abortion out of the news to keep recovering momentum.

They haven't been gaining in polls, it's just the Dems were never up 7 in WI and 10 in PA to begin with.

[Devils30]

July: R 230 - D 205 (R+25)
August: R 226 - D 209 (R+17)
September R 223 - D 212 (R+11)

GCB is R+1 here, was R+2 in August, and R+4 in July.

The sample is also like 43% identifying as conservative while Dems win moderates by 26 and independents. I am kind of glad fewer pollsters are herding but there is so much uncertainty this year. 72% are 45 and over as well...that number is absurd even for a midterm. Split should be closer to 65-35.

[Devils30]

I can already feel this damn election taking a toll on my mental health.

Lovely. Exactly what I needed.

You and me both. It already was before the Dobbs decision actually managed to change things for the better, but I still can't get rid of the nagging dread that we're being misled into being optimistic again.

It especially doesn't help with today's round of polling where things actively look worse in Oregon, Pennsylvania (Senate, not so much the gubernatorial race), and Wisconsin. Which all might be explained by Republican ad blitzes going into very high gear, time shifting further away from the shock and consequences of the Dobbs decision in the summer, gas going up again in some areas, inflation remaining stubborn, and Democratic accomplishments during the summer leaving peoples' memories. I was worried that Democrats would peak too early, as always seems to be the case, and while I can't say this is happening for sure right now (perhaps it's just statistical noise) I am becoming paranoid about it.

Part of me just wants these damn elections to be over, but the other part of me dreads how they end up and would rather not know at all.

And yet this week we also got Hassan +9, Warnock +5, Kelly +6, Fetterman +7/10, and two tied NC-SEN polls. If people want to create a narrative about WI, where things actually seem to have shifted a bit, that's fine, but elsewhere there doesn't seem to be anything really going on.

Also, the idea that 2 months after Dobbs, people were still angry and voted, but 4 months - closer to the actual election - they're just like "meh" is just kind of ridiculous.

Barnes just has a real problem because it's easy to tie him to the squad and those types when he's posing for photos with an abolish ICE slogan. I really think if the Dems are to somehow get 52, it's NC now not WI.

51 and keeping the House is a possibility, WI was Biden +0.6 and NC Trump +1.3 whereas the swingiest House seats are Biden +2.

[Devils30]

One thing people are forgetting is Wisconsin had a 3.8% Republican lean in 2020 that keeps getting bigger. Dems could win the popular vote by 3 to 3.5% and still be clean underdogs in Wisconsin...that margin is quite honestly pretty generous for 2022 expectations.

[Devils30]

Dems only seem to have a Wisconsin problem this week. Barnes and Evers need to hit back hard on Dobbs to try to increase their white college percentage.

That said...this is a good article today in the NYT:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/30/upshot/midterms-gerrymandering-republicans.html

Remember Wisconsin at Biden +0.6 is much less than the median Biden +2.1 seat and Dems are the ones with the candidate problem in WI.

[Devils30]

Dems only seem to have a Wisconsin problem this week. Barnes and Evers need to hit back hard on Dobbs to try to increase their white college percentage.

That said...this is a good article today in the NYT:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/30/upshot/midterms-gerrymandering-republicans.html

Remember Wisconsin at Biden +0.6 is much less than the median Biden +2.1 seat and Dems are the ones with the candidate problem in WI.

I would disagree with this. Evers has led more polls than Michels this cycle, and Michels is the one with the more out of touch positions. Not sure how Dems have a "candidate problem" there.

Barnes is the one I'm talking about, not Evers.

[Devils30]

FL-27 is interesting...

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1576927066724835329

FL-27 is Trump +0.3 but very elastic and decently educated. There really is no meaningful difference between this and a Biden +0.3 seat other than psychological effects.

[Devils30]

Monmouth has R+3....Dems are showing some real troubling signs in the past week.

[Devils30]

This is something to watch-

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1576957205441835008

Monmouth has had weird swings this year, had R+7 in January and then D+1 in March despite nothing happening in the news that would change anything. I still think there have been troubling signs for Dems the past week though.

[Devils30]

Monmouth has R+3....Dems are showing some real troubling signs in the past week.

R+2 among RV, 47-45. Really wanted to swing the other way from their D+7 last time lol.

Funny though, Monmouth lines up with Wapo. Wapo had 39/55 approval and R+1/5 and Monmouth has 38/55 approval R+2/3. However, both those are a decent bit off from the current avg (-9 approval)

Yeah, kind of strange how Monmouths ballot has gone from:

R+7 -> D+1 -> R+4 -> = -> D+7 = -> R+3

Wonder whats causing such huge shifts?

Edit: They were certainly off, but their generic ballot in 2020 was remarkably more stable.

This poll is weirdly already 9-12 days old as well, even before the Rasmussen R+1 one. The electorate will not be 31% college, midterms are usually 38-40% college. Still, the Dems have a big problem where people disagree with them on literally everything but abortion these days.

[Devils30]

As far as the Generic Ballot is concerned Democrats could win the House Popular Vote from anywhere between 1-3 Points and yet still lose the Chamber. Why? There is now a significant amount of evidence of a significant Overvote in Blue Districts and because of that we are seeing a lot of the GCB Tests having Democrats up.

[citation needed]

I'm trying to figure out what overvote is. 

I think he's saying that Democrats will "waste" much of their GCB advantage by piling up unneeded votes in districts that they were already going to win, meaning that they would fall short in close races.  Of course, there is zero evidence for this one way or the other at this point.

ABC/WaPo Poll from last week Sep 25:

And another result is notable: Among those living in congressional districts that are rated as at
least somewhat competitive by ABC’s FiveThirtyEight (neither solid Republican nor solid
Democratic), registered voters favor Republican candidates by a wide 55-34 percent – nearly as
big as the Republican lead in solid GOP districts (+24 points). Democrats lead by 35 points in
solid Democratic districts, pointing to a potential overvote where they’re most prevalent.


So, please stop saying that there is no evidence when there is:
D's lead by 35 Points in Blue Districts
R's lead by 24 Points in Red Districts
R lead 55-34 in competitive Disticts

These small subsamples of 80 people are meaningless.

[Devils30]

I feel vindicated in that PA-07 move.

TX-34 is interesting though, I still feel like there's just no way Flores has that big of a chance.

Yeah, even in the special where there was a 9 point swing from 2020, it would still put Gonzalez up 6 in TX-34. It is also more Dem downballot ancestrally. I also think Cuellar will be fine in TX-28 considering his rural strength in primary and the Cisneros areas in Bexar will hold their nose and vote for him in the general.

FL-27 is interesting because it had the same trends as South Texas but is not at all socially conservative. You can see Miami trends kind of flatlining if not slightly reversing and the RGV continuing its March right. Ironically, Dems might flip Texas in 2028 or 2032 even with a deep red RGV once they are winning Collin County by double-digits.