2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[SnowLabrador]

Fox has GCB at R+3, 44-41.

They had it at R+3 in June as well, 47-44.

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-voters-say-economy-bad-expect-get-worse?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=news_tab&mibextid=CqRI5M&fs=e&s=cl

The sample is a little high on "abortion should be illegal" at 46% based on national polls in the past but Fox is a solid pollster.

That sounds about right, since it's close to the percentage Trump got in both 2016 and 2020.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1550197073055711237

I suppose that's a good poll for Democrats.

[SnowLabrador]

Michigan being higher than CO is.... certainly something

Agreed. For what it's worth, I think Joe O'Dea has serious Youngkin potential this November.

[SnowLabrador]

Michigan being higher than CO is.... certainly something

Agreed. For what it's worth, I think Joe O'Dea has serious Youngkin potential this November.

Even if he gets the 12% Youngkin swing in CO, he still falls 1.5% short.

I'm not saying he'll win, but I wouldn't be surprised if the race was within 2-3 points. It might be this cycle's equivalent of VA-SEN 2014.

[SnowLabrador]

F***! The environment is improving for Republicans again, just like I said it would!

[SnowLabrador]

The NBC news poll out today has R+2 when it was previously tied back in May. That would seem to be evidence that the Dobbs boost for Democrats was only temporary. How sickening this country is.

[SnowLabrador]

I believe Rasmussen just came out with 42-43 R, which sounds really good for Republicans but their last poll was 42-46 R.

That is very much consistent with the hypothesis that after Dobbs, there are more shy GOP voters now. That's what I happen to believe.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/TomBevanRCP/status/1581948765472428032?t=iZiTctet06pSmL4cO5Q...

This country can rot in hell.

[SnowLabrador]

https://fightforua.org/

If you want to escape this country, here's a way out. Fighting for Ukraine.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm just going to lay this out in advance now if things do go catastrophically: if Dems lose both the House and the Senate this November, then the entire leadership needs to be purged. Pelosi, Hoyer, Schumer, Biden, Harris, Durbin, all of them. Burn it to the ground and start over, because everything that we think we know about politics is probably wrong anyway, and the option that would have been considered electoral suicide in any other scenario might actually be the only way to save the country. If the public can't recognize the threat the Republicans present because the present Dem leadership is too incompetent to portray it correctly, then we need to find literally anyone else who can get the point across.

This. So much this. Say what you will about the GOP, but they're smart enough to keep switching up who runs their party. That probably helps them win, or at least makes it seem like they're more in touch with what voters want.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm just going to lay this out in advance now if things do go catastrophically: if Dems lose both the House and the Senate this November, then the entire leadership needs to be purged. Pelosi, Hoyer, Schumer, Biden, Harris, Durbin, all of them. Burn it to the ground and start over, because everything that we think we know about politics is probably wrong anyway, and the option that would have been considered electoral suicide in any other scenario might actually be the only way to save the country. If the public can't recognize the threat the Republicans present because the present Dem leadership is too incompetent to portray it correctly, then we need to find literally anyone else who can get the point across.

This. So much this. Say what you will about the GOP, but they're smart enough to keep switching up who runs their party. That probably helps them win, or at least makes it seem like they're more in touch with what voters want.

is this a joke

I'm referring to their Congressional leadership, not Trump.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm not liking a lot of what I'm seeing.

Yep, Democrats are doing what they do best, choking at just the wrong time. Leadership needs a full cleaning out after this election.

This kind of stuff makes no sense. Democrats are focusing on the same thing now that they were in September, and the same thing that they were focusing in on August.

Perhaps, but the "undecided" voters weren't actually undecided. Dobbs resulted in an increase in "shy" voters (i.e. those who wouldn't tell pollsters they were voting Republican.) But now that Dobbs is no longer in the news as much (even if it's having a devastating impact still), these people feel comfortable admitting that they're bigots. That's what is happening here.

[SnowLabrador]

The only good thing about what increasingly looks like an absolute bloodbath across the board is that it will make it easier to finally get rid of these ancient morons running the Democratic party into the ground.

I hope you're right. Not about the bloodbath, but about cleaning house in Democratic leadership. I've said this a lot lately, but whatever you say about the GOP, they at least know that they need to switch up their Congressional leadership every few cycles. It's no wonder they seem more in touch than the Democrats do to so many voters.

That being said, even if it's a bigger shellacking than 2010 or 2014, I don't see Democrats changing course. They'll decide that they didn't surrender enough. They never, ever learn.

Of course, the lion's share of the blame has to rest with the voters. Right now, women are dying all over the country because they can't get an abortion, we're approaching more and more climate tipping points, and the Supreme Court is poised to eliminate even more rights. And yet, swing voters are willing to overlook all of that because they have to pay a couple cents more per gallon.

[SnowLabrador]

I’m referring to the NYT article today saying Rs are winning CA-27

Why the hell did we nominate Christy Smith again?

[SnowLabrador]

Cook moved AZ-SEN back to Tossup. In my opinion, it should never have been moved to Lean D.

[SnowLabrador]

I don't know who's going to win the midterms, but I do know that the polling industry is going to lose.

[SnowLabrador]

If this midterm goes as badly as it looks like it will, here's one question I have: Why would any party want to win the presidency? If even women losing their bodily autonomy doesn't change a single vote in a midterm, nothing can. Moreover, to those who say it's happening due to Biden's unpopularity: I honestly don't think any President will ever be popular again at this point in their term.

[SnowLabrador]

If this midterm goes as badly as it looks like it will, here's one question I have: Why would any party want to win the presidency? If even women losing their bodily autonomy doesn't change a single vote in a midterm, nothing can. Moreover, to those who say it's happening due to Biden's unpopularity: I honestly don't think any President will ever be popular again at this point in their term.

To enact their agenda.

I guess I should revise that to: Why would the Democrats want to win the presidency? When you think about it, the Democrats will likely never have a trifecta again after this. They're much better at winning elections when they're the opposition party.

[SnowLabrador]

Also, another pattern I've noticed: The Democrats do very well, until it's time for people to vote. Then they always underperform expectations. At some point you need to stop blaming the party and start blaming the voters.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1589330702360752128?s=20&t=jRI8iv...

We'll have to see what happens. What direction has Civiqs tended to lean relative to other polls this cycle?

[SnowLabrador]

The fact that they have Colorado in the same category as Wisconsin tells you all you need to know.

[SnowLabrador]

So they have Cortez Masto winning but Warnock losing? That seems...unlikely.