2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread
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Author Topic: 2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 166643 times)
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #750 on: November 09, 2021, 12:53:01 PM »

New CNN poll (Nov 1-4) has GCB at D+5

Democrats 49%
Republicans 44%

I'm sure it will get the same amount of coverage as the Suffolk poll though!

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/08/politics/cnn-poll-biden-job-approval/index.html
With all due respect, if you still believe any poll that has dems leading on the GB after what just happened, I don't know what to tell you

I didn't say I believed it, did I? Please don't put words in my mouth. My point is that people will run with whatever one they believe the most. People love the Dems in Disarray narrative, so naturally the Suffolk poll got a lot of mileage. This one doesn't say that, so it won't.

My thoughts are it goes into the average. The average is basically tied right now, which seems reasonable.

The CGB is definitely not tied right now. Everything about this past Tuesday indicates an environment at least R+5, maybe more.

If we went by the results in 2009, they had an R+20 at this point.

Virginia Gov indicated R+16, NJ indicated R+11, if you go strictly by PVI. State races weren't as nationalized then. I imagine if Deeds brought in the entirety of the Democratic party, maybe he would've lost by 11 instead of 17.

The fact that the main races of Tuesday had congruent results, along with the multitude of downballot races across the nation that went hard for Republicans, would suggest at least R+5. The gubernatorial elections themselves imply R+8, so I am discounting the result to an extent.

I would say GCB of R+5 is what we would have if the election was today.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #751 on: November 09, 2021, 01:11:09 PM »

This is a great ad, but isn't SC-01 only becoming more red in redistricting?



Yeah they’re going to make it more R. When I played around in DRA, it was quite difficult to make it very R if you keep Horry whole. Definitely a seat Dems will pick up this decade almost regardless of its new shape.
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andjey
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« Reply #752 on: November 09, 2021, 05:05:52 PM »

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lfromnj
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« Reply #753 on: November 10, 2021, 11:33:58 AM »



Quote
A star Republican congressional candidate in Texas was accused last month by her estranged husband in court documents of “cruel and aggressive conduct” toward his 14-year-old daughter, including verbal abuse and pinching the child to stop her from crying.
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
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« Reply #754 on: November 10, 2021, 11:46:59 AM »

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lfromnj
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« Reply #755 on: November 10, 2021, 09:33:34 PM »



Cawthorn to carpetbag over a mildly competitive seat.
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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #756 on: November 10, 2021, 09:57:07 PM »


Cawthorn to carpetbag over a mildly competitive seat.
So he's moving from a Trump +7.4 seat to a Trump +20.4 one. I wonder who will take over NC-14.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #757 on: November 10, 2021, 10:11:58 PM »



Cawthorn to carpetbag over a mildly competitive seat.

Someone didn't like that the brand he curated wouldn't last long in a Blue Ridge Mountains seat with two liberal enclaves instead of one - a less well know GOP'er still shouldn't have a problem. And said seat has 0% chance of changing via the lawsuit so...
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Pollster
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« Reply #758 on: November 10, 2021, 10:23:29 PM »

Huge opening for Andrew Yang’s Forward Party



or whatever it’s called
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Person Man
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« Reply #759 on: November 11, 2021, 08:56:15 AM »

Huge opening for Andrew Yang’s Forward Party



or whatever it’s called

This is the poll that had Biden in the 30s?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #760 on: November 11, 2021, 08:20:51 PM »


Lol
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Thunder98
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« Reply #761 on: November 11, 2021, 08:23:45 PM »


Lol

Lmao, so the GOP leg drew a map just for him, but decides not to run anyways. Makes no sense at all.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #762 on: November 12, 2021, 05:59:11 AM »
« Edited: November 12, 2021, 06:12:46 AM by Mr. MANDELA BARNES »

Huge opening for Andrew Yang’s Forward Party



or whatever it’s called

This is the poll that had Biden in the 30s?

If it's a 304 map why is Gretchen W trailing by Six and Evers is under 50% they should be ahead

Civitas polls showing Biden Approvals low in all the purple states should be a red flag for Whitmer and Tony Evers, they're not gonna easily win like they did in 201

There is not any campaign for Cali Gov, but Newsom said give him another yr, the Recall reelected him for 1 more yr it wasnt for 4 we don't know about Cali Gov race either, any red wave will wash out Newsom with Eider remember Quinn in 2014/ he was assured a Reelection and he was washed out by an R wave, that can happen to Newsom, Whitmer or Evers whom are weak

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Pollster
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« Reply #763 on: November 12, 2021, 01:44:18 PM »



Quote
A star Republican congressional candidate in Texas was accused last month by her estranged husband in court documents of “cruel and aggressive conduct” toward his 14-year-old daughter, including verbal abuse and pinching the child to stop her from crying.

It was a bit surprising to see McCarthy/the GOP apparatus line up behind her regardless of the validity of these claims - she was a nobody candidate who raised little money and mostly rode Trump's coattails against a Democrat who didn't take the race seriously. Should have done a far more thorough vet.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #764 on: November 12, 2021, 04:01:47 PM »

https://www.yahoo.com/news/devin-nunes-josh-harder-could-130000931.html
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Horus
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« Reply #765 on: November 12, 2021, 04:08:05 PM »

Good riddance, hopefully Issa is also on the way out.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #766 on: November 13, 2021, 10:56:09 AM »
« Edited: November 13, 2021, 11:06:15 AM by Roll Roons »

https://nypost.com/2021/11/13/retirement-talk-growing-around-rep-jerry-nadler/

So Jerry Nadler apparently might retire, with outgoing NYC Comptroller and former Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer being the early frontrunner for the seat. Though I'm sure it will attract a very crowded primary.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #767 on: November 13, 2021, 11:48:24 AM »

Nunes can still win in that seat, but it'd be harder to hold after '22.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #768 on: November 13, 2021, 01:07:38 PM »

https://nypost.com/2021/11/13/retirement-talk-growing-around-rep-jerry-nadler/

So Jerry Nadler apparently might retire, with outgoing NYC Comptroller and former Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer being the early frontrunner for the seat. Though I'm sure it will attract a very crowded primary.

Stringer wouldn’t win the primary, although I am sure the NY Post is rooting for him simply b/c his election would be an embarrassment to Democrats.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #769 on: November 13, 2021, 01:14:17 PM »

Nadler's potential retirement is more evidence, if it were needed, that 2022 will be a bloodbath for the Democrats.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« Reply #770 on: November 13, 2021, 01:34:52 PM »

Nadler's potential retirement is more evidence, if it were needed, that 2022 will be a bloodbath for the Democrats.

Um, no?
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UncleSam
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« Reply #771 on: November 13, 2021, 02:05:16 PM »

Nunes is just gonna run in Harder’s district from the sounds of that article, which just is equivalent to losing Harder. Not sure how this is good for Ds but also the maps are far from finished
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #772 on: November 13, 2021, 04:43:12 PM »

Nunes can still win in that seat, but it'd be harder to hold after '22.

No he wont, he will lose
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Matty
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« Reply #773 on: November 14, 2021, 12:28:18 AM »

New Wapo poll has R+10 on generic ballot
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BigSerg
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« Reply #774 on: November 14, 2021, 01:13:58 AM »

Gg


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