2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I think it'll be either 54 or 55 Republicans in the Senate come 2023. That hinges on Colorado. That would mean the tipping-point state is the one Democrats lose by the largest margin, which I think is Arizona.

I don't see Democrats losing Nevada or Colorado. Even in the 2010 Wave they managed to hold those States.

In the 2010 NV Sen race, the Republicans ran a really terrible canidate against an entrenched Senate majority leader who constantly won by close margins and the rurals were a lot less red back then for the Senate races. In 2012, Dean Heller managed to held on even in a bad year for the GOP up and down the ballot. In 2018, Rosen only won by 5 in a blue wave year.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

GG 70-80 seats
https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1457412028872761349?s=20

I just find it amazing how the Democrats are always elected to clean up the messes left by Republicans, but then the voters decide to hand power back to the Republicans because they don't think the Democrats are cleaning up fast enough.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/RealignmentP/status/1457419368120430603?s=20

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/RealignmentP/status/1457419368120430603?s=20

This sort of speculation is a little silly considering redistricting isn't finished yet.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/RealignmentP/status/1457419368120430603?s=20

This is sort of speculation is a little silly considering redistricting isn't finished yet.

Yeah redistricting probably will raise the floor somewhat for Dems while also lowering their ceiling.  For instance, Dems are likely to lose FL-07, NC-01, GA-06, VA-07, FL-13, OH-13, and TX-15 in redistricting.  Well, if the swing is this bad, they would have lost those seats anyway.

It would be quite scary for Dems if they actually fall below their post 1928 low of 188 seats (reached in 1946 and 2014).

[2016]

The "BUILT BACK BETTER" Plan will define Democrats in 2022. Yes, they might get Progressives energized and riled up BUT they likely will lose a ton of Suburban Voters, particularly moms in the processs.

Democrats have been put into a corner thanks to Jayapal, AOC and the House Progressive Caucus.

[SnowLabrador]

The American public is like the narrator from the song "Mamma Mia!" by ABBA. We've been cheated by the GOP for decades, so we vote them out. But then we vote them back in. When will we ever learn?

Narrator: When it's too late.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

The American public is like the narrator from the song "Mamma Mia!" by ABBA. We've been cheated by the GOP for decades, so we vote them out. But then we vote them back in. When will we ever learn?

Narrator: When it's too late.

Trump did a better job than Biden so far. And I didn't vote for Trump in either 2016 or 2020.

And one of Biden's only good accomplishments - his infrastructure bill - got numerous GOP votes. The senate GOP allowed it to easily pass filibuster.

[AZDem]

The American public is like the narrator from the song "Mamma Mia!" by ABBA. We've been cheated by the GOP for decades, so we vote them out. But then we vote them back in. When will we ever learn?

Narrator: When it's too late.

Trump did a better job than Biden so far. And I didn't vote for Trump in either 2016 or 2020.

It's easy to do a good job when you inherit pretty robust economic growth and decreasing unemployment from your predecessor and then still manage to have slower economic growth in your first 3 years after passing a massive tax cut that didn't make sense. All while you increased the national debt and are now trying to blame the Democrats for the money you put on the credit card.

But CRT!, WOKENESS!, DR SEUSS!, BIG BIRD!, ABORTION!, THE GAYS!, MASKS!, VACCINES!

That's ok. Your party is about to make it next to impossible for the Dems to win in the next few years so you all get to own any and all disasters that befall us. If history is any indication, they will happen because your party can't actually govern, just dole out tax cuts to the wealthy, shut down the government, and then turn around and rack up more debt when corporations need a bailout. We've seen the both movie and the sequel and it gets worse each time. Only maybe you'll actually be left having to clean up the mess.

Can't wait for your your party to try to impeach Biden for whatever reason you decide will help your cause. It'll probably be Afghanistan or Hunter.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

The American public is like the narrator from the song "Mamma Mia!" by ABBA. We've been cheated by the GOP for decades, so we vote them out. But then we vote them back in. When will we ever learn?

Narrator: When it's too late.

Trump did a better job than Biden so far. And I didn't vote for Trump in either 2016 or 2020.

It's easy to do a good job when you inherit pretty robust economic growth and decreasing unemployment from your predecessor and then still manage to have slower economic growth in your first 3 years after passing a massive tax cut that didn't make sense. All while you increased the national debt and are now trying to blame the Democrats for the money you put on the credit card.

But CRT!, WOKENESS!, DR SEUSS!, BIG BIRD!, ABORTION!, THE GAYS!, MASKS!, VACCINES!

That's ok. Your party is about to make it next to impossible for the Dems to win in the next few years so you all get to own any and all disasters that befall us. If history is any indication, they will happen because your party can't actually govern, just dole out tax cuts to the wealthy and then turn around and rack up more debt when corporations need a bailout. We've seen the both the movie and the sequel and it gets worse each time.

Can't wait for your your party to try to impeach Biden for whatever reason you decide will help your cause. It'll probably be Afghanistan or Hunter. Good luck!

You're screaming into the void. I don't support half of the things you describe, nor am I a partisan Republican. I am very clear what the democratic party should do to get back my vote in 2022. I voted for Hillary / Stacey Abrams / Joe Biden and currently plan on voting almost exclusively GOP in 2022.

[wbrocks67]

The "BUILT BACK BETTER" Plan will define Democrats in 2022. Yes, they might get Progressives energized and riled up BUT they likely will lose a ton of Suburban Voters, particularly moms in the processs.

Democrats have been put into a corner thanks to Jayapal, AOC and the House Progressive Caucus.

I'm not sure where this narrative is coming from that BBB is some progressive wishlist, but it's not ... accurate at all  Why would suburban women backlash at getting paid family leave and universal pre-K? I feel like this entire narrative is just being made up out of thin air.

[wbrocks67]

The American public is like the narrator from the song "Mamma Mia!" by ABBA. We've been cheated by the GOP for decades, so we vote them out. But then we vote them back in. When will we ever learn?

Narrator: When it's too late.

Trump did a better job than Biden so far. And I didn't vote for Trump in either 2016 or 2020.

And one of Biden's only good accomplishments - his infrastructure bill - got numerous GOP votes. The senate GOP allowed it to easily pass filibuster.

What did Trump get accomplished in year one? Literally just corporate tax cuts. Biden is on track to probably pass 3 huge bills in year 1.

It's honestly like people don't want to give Biden the credit he deserves, and as usual, for some reason, want to give the GOP some benefit of the doubt that is not provided to Dems. The GOP really did a great job last time they had a trifecta, didn't they? Sure, let's go back to that!

[wbrocks67]

Sorry for triple post, but I'm not sure if anyone posted that list from NRCC / Kevin McCarthy where he added like 10 new districts to their 2022 list, and that list, among others, included VA-10 (Wexton, which was still like D+4 last week despite Youngkins win), and.... PA-04, Madeleine Dean. My home district.

Uh, Kevin, Biden won by 26% in Montco in 2020, Dean won by 20%, and McLaughlin will win by about 21% *this year* in Montco (most of PA-04), so... good luck with that

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1457438451436081154

[jaichind]

I doubt GOP is really ahead in the GCB by 7 or 8.  A lot of this are marginal Dems not saying they will vote Dem due to the most recent drubbing in elections due to the embarrassment factor.  They will still mostly turnout in 2022 and vote Dem.

[wbrocks67]

I doubt GOP is really ahead in the GCB by 7 or 8.  A lot of this are marginal Dems not saying they will vote Dem due to the most recent drubbing in elections due to the embarrassment factor.  They will still mostly turnout in 2022 and vote Dem.

Not to mention people - as always - are promoting the worst possible poll for Dems instead of going by the average, which is still D+1, b/c there is other polls that are not showing anywhere near that amount.

[Sir Mohamed]

I doubt GOP is really ahead in the GCB by 7 or 8.  A lot of this are marginal Dems not saying they will vote Dem due to the most recent drubbing in elections due to the embarrassment factor.  They will still mostly turnout in 2022 and vote Dem.

Yup, especially with such a high number of undecided. A 44-37% for example is a different lead than polls showing a race at 52-45%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Russian bear love to post polls favoring Rs a yr before the Election anyways these polls don't matter until Aug 22 anyways

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Russian bear love to post polls favoring Rs a yr before the Election anyways these polls don't matter until Aug 22 anyways

Yes, I do! But this time I posted Nate Cohn's take, that this results are consistent with VA/NJ outcomes.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I doubt GOP is really ahead in the GCB by 7 or 8.  A lot of this are marginal Dems not saying they will vote Dem due to the most recent drubbing in elections due to the embarrassment factor.  They will still mostly turnout in 2022 and vote Dem.

There is also, fairly or unfairly, enormous frustration with the perceived failure of Democrats to accomplish anything folks care about (no one remembers the stimulus checks and the public wrongly believes the economy has gotten worse under Biden).  In terms of the low hanging fruit, passing the even the House’s version BBB would go a really long way.

[wbrocks67]

I doubt GOP is really ahead in the GCB by 7 or 8.  A lot of this are marginal Dems not saying they will vote Dem due to the most recent drubbing in elections due to the embarrassment factor.  They will still mostly turnout in 2022 and vote Dem.

There is also, fairly or unfairly, enormous frustration with the perceived failure of Democrats to accomplish anything folks care about (no one remembers the stimulus checks and the public wrongly believes the economy has gotten worse under Biden).  In terms of the low hanging fruit, passing the even the House’s version BBB would go a really long way.

Yeah, if BBB passes before years end, nobody can use the 'biden didn't get anything done' in good faith anymore.

[libertpaulian]

Shri Thanedar might launch a primary challenge against Tlaib.

https://twitter.com/AlexClearfield/status/1457684840434782212?t=zR0DfVCeLmLd12JC...

[SnowLabrador]

Hot take: It will be a bigger red wave than 2010.

[wbrocks67]

Hot take: It will be a bigger red wave than 2010.

Keep in mind - there will also be less competitive districts next year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hot take: It will be a bigger red wave than 2010.

Biden Approvals are near where he won the NPVI he won by 50/45 is all where he needs to be by in order to get a 304 map


BIDEN DIDNOT WIN 60/40% HE WON BY 50/45 ITS A 304 MAP PLAIN AND SIMPLE


Snowlabrador you predicted Warnock and Gary Peters to lose and they won