2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[ElectionsGuy]

Just so you know, 538 has Democrats averaging the exact same 3 point House lead they got last year. You could easily adjust it to be a narrow Republican lead, or just count on the generic ballot being a lagging indicator compared to presidential approval. So far, it's better than the 39% and 7 point deficit 2018 Republicans were recording at this point, but that doesn't mean they'll retain the House.

The generic ballot polling early on has a tendency to lag behind the shifting environment. I remember throughout much of 2013 and early 2014 Democrats led the generic ballot quite often, and only in the last few months did Republicans take a narrow lead, and then they went on to win by 5-6 points. In 2018, one of the only years recently that hasn't underestimated Republicans, Democrats had a softer ~6 point lead before getting into 8-9 territory before the election. In 2016, Democrats led by 3-5 throughout, and then it narrowed toward the end to a 1 point lead and Republicans won it by 1.

Given the polling for 2020 had Democrats cruising to a slightly smaller than 2018 margin, a Democrats +3 aggregate is not good. They're pretty much on track to lose the nationwide congressional vote. But if it doesn't get better for Republicans than this in next year of polling, I think we're looking at another historic miss. Especially as some pollsters still have a laughable +8 at this point, that doesn't make me confident that polling is getting better, in fact it may be continuing to get worse.

There's no election, none, in the last 30 years or so where the incumbent's party did better or as well as the previous presidential election when the incumbent's approval rating is underwater. And when you pin down who's undecided, it's very disproportionately independents who disapprove of Biden. Gee, how do you think they're going to break eventually? The people who still approve of Biden are on the D train no matter what, but the people who don't only have one political party to blame and one other to choose from.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

https://twitter.com/TomOHalleran/status/1449019462582210586?s=20

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1449721867179335688

[Spectator]

Surprised no one has mentioned it, but California Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D) announced against Valadao today. He’s the best possible challenger in this seat.

[wbrocks67]

Surprised no one has mentioned it, but California Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D) announced against Valadao today. He’s the best possible challenger in this seat.

Is Valado even likely to keep his seat with redistricting?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MT Treasurer sti thinks Kelly will lose

[MT Treasurer]

MT Treasurer sti thinks Kelly will lose

I can’t help being delusional. Clearly I should know better than to predict that Republicans will somehow win a Senate race in Arizona of all states in a Democratic trifecta midterm (and beat an astronaut at that!), but alas...

[wbrocks67]

Politico/Morning Consult, Oct 16-18

GCB

Dems 45%
Reps 40%

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2021/10/20054637/2110084_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v1_SH.pdf

[wbrocks67]

538 is saying the new Echelon poll has Dems +1, 46-45.

I'm seeing 46-42... am I missing something?

http://60p3co1nax34ovc830mr2sak-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/October-2021-Omnibus-External-Topline1.pdf

[sting in the rafters]

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/mzvq4c7ty8/econTabReport.pdf


YouGov weekly tracking has D+5 42/37. Sheer number of undecided indies indicates both parties are at base support.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1451541777572368391?s=20

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1451541777572368391?s=20

that's the result they had in 2020 and very close to their 2018 one.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm not going to try and unskew this poll, but the wording of these questions seems biased towards the GOP. That said, I do expect 2022 to be a bloodbath for Democrats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1451541777572368391?s=20

You keep posting R favored polls and D's are favored in every 304 swing state poll when have Rs have they lead in AZ Sen or VA Gov

[MT Treasurer]

NC-Cygnal (R):

GCB: GOP +7 (50-43)
Biden approval: -17 (39/56)

Conducted October 15 - 17, 2021
n=600 | ±4.00%

https://s3.amazonaws.com/carolinajournal.com/app/uploads/2021/10/21125410/2110046-JLF-NC-Toplines.pdf

[Devils30]

NC-Cygnal (R):

GCB: GOP +7 (50-43)
Biden approval: -17 (39/56)

Conducted October 15 - 17, 2021
n=600 | ±4.00%

https://s3.amazonaws.com/carolinajournal.com/app/uploads/2021/10/21125410/2110046-JLF-NC-Toplines.pdf

They had bad numbers early in the year for NC Dems as well.

[SnowLabrador]

NC-Cygnal (R):

GCB: GOP +7 (50-43)
Biden approval: -17 (39/56)

Conducted October 15 - 17, 2021
n=600 | ±4.00%

https://s3.amazonaws.com/carolinajournal.com/app/uploads/2021/10/21125410/2110046-JLF-NC-Toplines.pdf

They had bad numbers early in the year for NC Dems as well.

Of course they had bad numbers for Democrats, they're a Republican pollster. Doesn't mean they can't be accurate, of course.

[MT Treasurer]

NC-Cygnal (R):

GCB: GOP +7 (50-43)
Biden approval: -17 (39/56)

Conducted October 15 - 17, 2021
n=600 | ±4.00%

https://s3.amazonaws.com/carolinajournal.com/app/uploads/2021/10/21125410/2110046-JLF-NC-Toplines.pdf

They had bad numbers early in the year for NC Dems as well.

This is somewhat of an exaggeration and completely ignores the sharp R swing since then.

Their May numbers:

GCB: GOP +1 (47-46)
Biden approval: -1 (48/49)

Conducted May 6 - 8, 2021
n=600 | ±4.0%

(hardly that bad for Democrats)

https://s3.amazonaws.com/carolinajournal.com/app/uploads/2021/05/14135751/2105024-JLF-NC-Toplines-v2.pdf

[😥]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1452594047504289800?s=20

[MT Treasurer]

IA-Cygnal (R):

GCB: GOP +18 (55-37)
Biden favorability: 40/59 (-19)

Conducted October 18 - 19, 2021
n=600 | ±4.0%

https://itrfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ITR-Foundation-Poll-Toplines-10-22-2021.pdf

[SnowLabrador]

IA-Cygnal (R):

GCB: GOP +18 (55-37)
Biden favorability: 40/59 (-19)

Conducted October 18 - 19, 2021
n=600 | ±4.0%

https://itrfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ITR-Foundation-Poll-Toplines-10-22-2021.pdf

That's rather sobering, to say the least. Obviously Iowa is well to the right of the national average, but it's not that red unless it's going to be a bloodbath.

[Gracile]

NRCC poll of 85 "battleground" congressional districts-

GCB:
Republicans 43%
Democrats 40%

Biden approval: 45/51 (down from 51/45 in July)

http://www.nrcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/NRCC-October-Battleground-Memo-FINAL.pdf

[wbrocks67]

NRCC poll of 85 "battleground" congressional districts-

GCB:
Republicans 43%
Democrats 40%

Biden approval: 45/51 (down from 51/45 in July)

http://www.nrcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/NRCC-October-Battleground-Memo-FINAL.pdf

Honestly, given the downturn in Biden's approval since July, 45/51 is not that terrible, especially coming from the GOP's own internal polling.

[Pollster]

Getting in now to raise money, will probably switch districts after the redraw.

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1452961592547713030?s=20

[Mr.Phips]

NRCC poll of 85 "battleground" congressional districts-

GCB:
Republicans 43%
Democrats 40%

Biden approval: 45/51 (down from 51/45 in July)

http://www.nrcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/NRCC-October-Battleground-Memo-FINAL.pdf

What are these 85 districts?  There are literally probably only 45 Dems in anything close to battleground districts.