2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

Already seems like a better candidate than Finello-

https://twitter.com/ashley_ehasz/status/1447879730682896385

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Stop worrying about Approval ratings until Aug 22/ we won 40H seats in Aug 2018/ not Nov 2017 we have 365 days til Election and Trump keep lying about he won and AZ audit shows he lost

If we get 52+ seats and a 222/216 we clinch the 2024/TESTER, RYAN AND DEMINGS SAID THEY WILL MAKE RS  Do AT very MINIMUM A STANDING FILIBUSTER AND SUPPORT DC Statehood, if 52 it's probably DC Statehood, if it's 53 PR Statehood and Reparations and comprehensive immigration reform, we need both immigration reform and enforce the Wall, I support full enforcement of the Wall

[Devils30]

Already seems like a better candidate than Finello-

https://twitter.com/ashley_ehasz/status/1447879730682896385

No chance unless the PA supreme court decides to crack Philly and make PA-1 a Biden +17 type of seat. IMO very unlikely.

[Roll Roons]

Already seems like a better candidate than Finello-

https://twitter.com/ashley_ehasz/status/1447879730682896385

No chance unless the PA supreme court decides to crack Philly and make PA-1 a Biden +17 type of seat. IMO very unlikely.

Yup. Likely R with Fitzpatrick, much closer to Safe than Lean. And this district isn't likely to change much.

[Roll Roons]

John Yarmuth retiring:
https://twitter.com/RepJohnYarmuth/status/1447973858527563778?ref_src=twsrc%5Ego...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

John Yarmuth retiring:
https://twitter.com/RepJohnYarmuth/status/1447973858527563778?ref_src=twsrc%5Ego...

Increases the odds of the Louisville seat being chopped up

[Devils30]

Already seems like a better candidate than Finello-

https://twitter.com/ashley_ehasz/status/1447879730682896385

No chance unless the PA supreme court decides to crack Philly and make PA-1 a Biden +17 type of seat. IMO very unlikely.

Yup. Likely R with Fitzpatrick, much closer to Safe than Lean. And this district isn't likely to change much.

Best chance for Ds is for him to lose primary to a MAGA challenger. But Rs won't get him voting to overturn elections, that's why he's much more popular than generic R.

Wonder if KY GOP is more tempted to crack Louisville now, the center-left KY Sup. Ct is a big obstacle for that though.

[Leroy McPherson fan]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NewsCenter1/status/1448106258289111045

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1448250267934330883

[SnowLabrador]

Fundraising means next to nothing. I wouldn't be surprised if Rubio won by double digits.

[wbrocks67]

Fundraising means next to nothing. I wouldn't be surprised if Rubio won by double digits.

This is the fundraising thread.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1448284727543205889

[ElectionsGuy]

Imagine believing the Democrats are going to do 5 points better than in 2020 in a midterm when the incumbent Democratic president is nearly 10 points underwater. lo freaking l.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Imagine believing the Democrats are going to do 5 points better than in 2020 in a midterm when the incumbent Democratic president is nearly 10 points underwater. lo freaking l.

Muh January 6th

[Progressive Pessimist]

Imagine believing the Democrats are going to do 5 points better than in 2020 in a midterm when the incumbent Democratic president is nearly 10 points underwater. lo freaking l.

Muh January 6th

You joke, and don't mistake me for being optimistic about 2022, but the GOP are not acting very accessible to Americans outside of their tribe. Don't underestimate how much they may be scaring the s*** out of many, especially soft-Democrats who may be disappointed with Biden but can't bear to vote Republican still.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Imagine believing the Democrats are going to do 5 points better than in 2020 in a midterm when the incumbent Democratic president is nearly 10 points underwater. lo freaking l.

This is the generic ballot thread, I'm just posting polls as I see them, they're not an implicit endorsement of them on my part (IMO this one has way too many undecideds).

That said, IIRC you said the exact same thing about a Stansbury +13 poll, in the exact same rude, haughty tone, so maybe your feelings on polls don't always match with reality.

[Xing]

Republicans are going to do well in 2022, but they can thank the Democrats for being bad at messaging and voters for reflexively taking out their anger on the incumbent party than anything that they're doing. If Democrats were better at responding to a platform that basically consists of "Trump good! Socialism bad! CRT bad!", Republicans would have less representation in Congress than they had after 2008.

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1448250267934330883

I'd never noticed it before, but does Marco Rubio have really big ears?

[ElectionsGuy]

Imagine believing the Democrats are going to do 5 points better than in 2020 in a midterm when the incumbent Democratic president is nearly 10 points underwater. lo freaking l.

This is the generic ballot thread, I'm just posting polls as I see them, they're not an implicit endorsement of them on my part (IMO this one has way too many undecideds).

That said, IIRC you said the exact same thing about a Stansbury +13 poll, in the exact same rude, haughty tone, so maybe your feelings on polls don't always match with reality.

I don't think that's true (I think the poll was better for Stansbury than that) but I remember saying you guys are setting yourselves up for egg on your face if you believe a race is certain based off one poll. And I stand by that, despite it not coming into use for that election. This is about the generic ballot, a much more broad and certain measure than a congressional special election.

By the way the "believe" part wasn't directed at anyone in particular. It wasn't meant to be rude, it was a light-hearted post actually. But we know people out there will just believe any polls that are out there no matter how unrealistic they are. That's why I said "imagine".

[ElectionsGuy]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1448250267934330883

I'd never noticed it before, but does Marco Rubio have really big ears?

Yes. They're massive.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Imagine believing the Democrats are going to do 5 points better than in 2020 in a midterm when the incumbent Democratic president is nearly 10 points underwater. lo freaking l.

This is the generic ballot thread, I'm just posting polls as I see them, they're not an implicit endorsement of them on my part (IMO this one has way too many undecideds).

That said, IIRC you said the exact same thing about a Stansbury +13 poll, in the exact same rude, haughty tone, so maybe your feelings on polls don't always match with reality.

I don't think that's true (I think the poll was better for Stansbury than that) but I remember saying you guys are setting yourselves up for egg on your face if you believe a race is certain based off one poll. And I stand by that, despite it not coming into use for that election. This is about the generic ballot, a much more broad and certain measure than a congressional special election.

By the way the "believe" part wasn't directed at anyone in particular. It wasn't meant to be rude, it was a light-hearted post actually. But we know people out there will just believe any polls that are out there no matter how unrealistic they are. That's why I said "imagine".

Understood! Sorry for reading your post as targeted at me -- that was my bad.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

I'd never noticed it before, but does Marco Rubio have really big ears?

Political caricaturists here had an absolute blast with him during the 2016 primary campaign.

[Pericles]

Just so you know, 538 has Democrats averaging the exact same 3 point House lead they got last year. You could easily adjust it to be a narrow Republican lead, or just count on the generic ballot being a lagging indicator compared to presidential approval. So far, it's better than the 39% and 7 point deficit 2018 Republicans were recording at this point, but that doesn't mean they'll retain the House.

[Vosem]

Just so you know, 538 has Democrats averaging the exact same 3 point House lead they got last year. You could easily adjust it to be a narrow Republican lead, or just count on the generic ballot being a lagging indicator compared to presidential approval. So far, it's better than the 39% and 7 point deficit 2018 Republicans were recording at this point, but that doesn't mean they'll retain the House.

The issue with this is that it's hard to imagine notional 2020 results aren't a Republican House majority already.

[Pericles]

Just so you know, 538 has Democrats averaging the exact same 3 point House lead they got last year. You could easily adjust it to be a narrow Republican lead, or just count on the generic ballot being a lagging indicator compared to presidential approval. So far, it's better than the 39% and 7 point deficit 2018 Republicans were recording at this point, but that doesn't mean they'll retain the House.

The issue with this is that it's hard to imagine notional 2020 results aren't a Republican House majority already.

You're wishcasting a bit, that is not at all certain. Sure it could happen, but it's not currently a sure thing.