2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Devils30]

A 50.5-48 Dem popular vote win would give them a chance to keep the House. This is why the DCCC can't listen to the bedwetting against pro impeachment Rs. Dems have to win the MI-3, OH-1, CA 22,27 and NM-2 places to offset any losses.

[Devils30]

The topline number is still good for the GOP, problem is the momentum was continuous for them in the late months of 2010-14 and it does appear Dems are showing signs of late life. GOP is a big big favorite in the House but still probably have like a 20% chance of losing everything.

[Devils30]

The topline number is still good for the GOP, problem is the momentum was continuous for them in the late months of 2010-14 and it does appear Dems are showing signs of late life. GOP is a big big favorite in the House but still probably have like a 20% chance of losing everything.

Other than the Dobbs report what else caused the shift in the momentum. Also, what do you think would shift it back in the GOPs favor?

Dobbs is the main driver, but there's also Trump being unfavorably back in the news due to the J6 hearings, and possibly gas prices coming down quite consistently for the last month-plus.

Not to mention, better news for Biden in terms of "getting things done" while little things will add up, like GOP voting against constantly popular issues like same sex marriage rights, contraception, abortion rights, etc.

The Manchin bill passing can’t hurt. Although just like Biden’s approval drop hasn’t hurt Ds, it rising 5% might not help as it will mainly get D voters anyway.

If I’m GOP I’d be a tad concerned about numbers with independents. Awful in GA PA races and let’s see what’s coming in Arizona after primary.

[Devils30]

Here's the CBS/YouGov battleground tracker - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/republicans-house-2022-midterm-elections-opinion-poll-2022-07-31/

They also have a new LV poll for GCB at R+2, 45-43.

The latest poll seems modeled towards an R+4 electorate, which is what they expect right now in terms of turnout in Nov.

It's a model not a poll. Dems up 7 with independents will not be R+2 under any circumstance. i have no idea what we can expect but Dems have plenty of high propensity suburban voters now. Using 2014 turnout models seems risky, these are high profile races and both sides will likely turn out big.

[Devils30]

National Journal released their rankings of the top 20 House seats most likely to flip:

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/718341/ihotlineis-2022-house-power-rankings/

1. WI-03 (Open)
2. MI-10 (Open)
3. AZ-02 (D, O'Halleran)
4. AZ-06 (Open)
5. TX-15 (Open)
6. IA-03 (Axne)
7. NJ-07 (Malinowski)
8. PA-07 (Wild)
9. MI-07 (Slotkin)
10. MI-08 (Kildee)
11. CA-22 (Valadao)
12. VA-02 (Luria)
13. OH-09 (Kaptur)
14. ME-02 (Golden)
15. IL-17 (Open)
16. PA-08 (Cartwright)
17. MI-03 (Meijer)
18. PA-17 (Open)
19. NV-03 (Lee)
20. NY-22 (Open)

All of these districts are highly vulnerable (and the Democratic-held ones especially will likely flip), but the ordering of these rankings and some omissions (TN-05, GA-06, the two D-held Florida districts that were made more Republican in redistricting - although they might see those ones as givens already - as well as seats like CA-27 and IL-13 which are more Democratic than the D seats on here) don't make a lot of sense.

Funny thing is how you can sort of see how it would fall apart for GOP. If Kelly, Hobbs win in AZ against a very extreme GOP ticket, they probably carry AZ-6, Whitmer could easily win MI-10 and Mastriano is a problem in PA-7,8.

[Devils30]

The RV sample is more realistic in the same poll, has D+3 at 49-46 versus the D+7 of all adults.

But the trendline is pretty clear regardless.

D+3 would do it, D+4 might get them the House and 52 in the Senate.

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/joshkraushaar/status/1555535600966582279?s=21&t=7LpzdkAli_YrqUIgtzFPtA

Six new House rating changes from @CookPolitical: three move towards Ds, three move towards Rs.

Biggest eye-catcher: Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon moves to toss-up status, with internal polls showing him tied or trailing.


Makes you wonder, NE-1 result suggests Dobbs impact real. If Bacon is in trouble, how much is the rest of the House GOP path built on a shaky foundation? If Dems pick up NE-2, MI-3, OH-1, CA-27 (maybe 22,45) it would offset some of the GOPs easy pickups. Also wonder if NJ-7 (similar demographics to NE-2) could move to tossup.

[Devils30]

It's hard seeing OR-4 or 6 flipping, 5 is a different story with the Warren type of lefty nominee the Dems have.

[Devils30]

I wouldn't be surprised if Ds just gave up on PA-01 at this point.

Fitzpatrick voted with the Dems on almost everything the last two months, he's safe. You wonder if he will even run in 2024.

[Devils30]

Given that Rasmussen is terrible, they should still be giving results of like R+5 in a neutral environment. Not only is their GCB close but it keeps narrowing.

There was a point where I think reality was truly R +6 or 7 and November couldn’t come fast enough, but at this point we need time for a change of course. 52-54 dems would not be out of the question which is enough for extremist legislation

If it’s any consolation, polls in the individual races are almost definitely overestimating Dems in places like Arizona and Pennsylvania and Ohio. I still ultimately expect Democrats to win those races, but by small margins (except for Ohio because Democrats obviously aren’t flipping a Trump+8 state this year).

Ohio definitely. The Dems could have a great night and hold GA, NV, AZ, pick up PA, WI, NC while even gaining 5 House seats AND still lose Ohio by 4%. Ohio is a red state, I expect Biden +2 seats to stay blue long before Ohio flips.

[Devils30]

Given that Rasmussen is terrible, they should still be giving results of like R+5 in a neutral environment. Not only is their GCB close but it keeps narrowing.

There was a point where I think reality was truly R +6 or 7 and November couldn’t come fast enough, but at this point we need time for a change of course. 52-54 dems would not be out of the question which is enough for extremist legislation

If it’s any consolation, polls in the individual races are almost definitely overestimating Dems in places like Arizona and Pennsylvania and Ohio. I still ultimately expect Democrats to win those races, but by small margins (except for Ohio because Democrats obviously aren’t flipping a Trump+8 state this year).

Ohio definitely. The Dems could have a great night and hold GA, NV, AZ, pick up PA, WI, NC while even gaining 5 House seats AND still lose Ohio by 4%. Ohio is a red state, I expect Biden +2 seats to stay blue long before Ohio flips.

Ohio flips before NC or a net gain in the House

Ehh, polling has very much overestimated Dems in Ohio.

[Devils30]

The GCB result in WA-08 for example is better for Dems than even in 2020, so that's interesting for sure.

Yeah, these Biden +6 suburban seats are looking good for the Dems right now. The next 4-8 weeks are crucial in determining where the party should spend. Dems should resist burning money Ohio Senate and load up these marginal seats like AZ-1, AZ-6, CA-22,27,45, IA-3, NE-2, FL-27, OH-1, IL-17 where their nominees could use some cash.

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1557458057390694405

As gracile can attest, I'm not huge on this move. A cash deficit is impermanent. The fact is, Marlinga has a stronger brand than James here and that could make this race competitive. Lean R was a fair rating.

James didn’t even win the district in 2020 Senate and Whitmer will probably win it this year. Cash only goes so far, we just need Marlinga to get some late funding.

[Devils30]

41-41 is practically useless, but at least it's another trendpoint for Ds from their last poll

It's weird how the undecideds are increasing....you wonder if some of these pollsters get D+6 but are scared to release the poll.

[Devils30]

Michigan being higher than CO is.... certainly something

Agreed. For what it's worth, I think Joe O'Dea has serious Youngkin potential this November.

Even if he gets the 12% Youngkin swing in CO, he still falls 1.5% short.

[Devils30]

Tbf, CA Latinos are disproportionately concentrated in greater LA so are prolly more prone to being liberal by default. You also have potentially more conservative ones in the Central Valley but those tend to be lower turnout and even then a lot are concentrated in liberal parts of Fresno and Bakerspider.

Good news for the GOP, there's absolutely no competitive districts in the Greater LA area

But a slight Latino shift back to the left cab flip 22,27 and 45 easily while making 40,41 competitive. Kim is probably safe for this year but long term who knows.

[Devils30]

Cyngal has R+3 at 47-44 on NC's generic ballot. Considering the state's lean is like 6 points red that's very consistent with a close House race overall.

[Devils30]

The NBC news poll out today has R+2 when it was previously tied back in May. That would seem to be evidence that the Dobbs boost for Democrats was only temporary. How sickening this country is.

It's one data point out of hundreds. So is the Marquette poll with Barnes up 7 and the Fetterman +15 junk.

[Devils30]

The Inflation Reduction Act also has like a 42/31 approval in that same NBC poll, so... certainly being very selective with that.

I should've expected SnowLabrador to make a new thread about the Dobbs bounce after *one* poll.

If anything, the NBC poll is certainly in the MoE, but having the GCB be worse for Dems *right now* than it was in May is certainly a bit of an outlier.

It's not out of realm of possibility the GOP picks up the House but it's a meager 10 seat gain and something like this.

https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/jMGD6l5

[Devils30]

The NBC news poll out today has R+2 when it was previously tied back in May. That would seem to be evidence that the Dobbs boost for Democrats was only temporary. How sickening this country is.

It's one data point out of hundreds. So is the Marquette poll with Barnes up 7 and the Fetterman +15 junk.

Doomers live in a world where it is always Monday, raining, and the car has a flat tire.

“Doomers” were ones to call BS on Dems winning FLA and NC. “Doomers” thought Biden winning Texas was laughable. “Doomers” laughed their ass off at polls saying Biden +17 in Wisconsin.

Other than my stubborn stance on Georgia…. “Doomers” on here are right.

GOP +2 is a GOP House of 240 seats and a likely takeover of the Senate.

TIED is a GOP House if 230 seats and a Tilt GOP takeover of Senate
Dem +2 is a GOP House of 220-225 seats and a Dem 50/50 Senate or Tilt D 51/49
Dem +3.5 is a tossup House with approximate 220-216 seats and a Dem gain in the Senate
Dem +4 is a Dem house of 225 seats and a Dem 52-48 Senate.

Nonsense, I am going to call the Senate right now for Democrats and I say this as a staunch Republican America First Supporter. Oz is going to lose and Ron Johnson is in a very precarious Position as well. If those two Seats don't turn around soon Democrats will likely maintain control of the Senate.

I can see your point on Pennsylvania. However Wisconsin is laughable - that’s the worst pooled state in the nation. Polls are always way way way off. Johnson wins that seat

We'll see on Wisconsin. Senator Johnson has very high Negatives.

Who would have thought Adam Laxalt having a better chance of winning compared to Blake Masters or Herschel Walker. Certainly not me but that's where we are at the moment.

The Economy in NV is still very bad and Governor Sisolaks draconian COVID-19 Mandates did not help either.

Nevada seems to be the brightest spot for Republicans among the competitive states.  I'm inclined to think both Sisolak and CCM are slight underdogs at the moment, with the caveat that Democrats have usually tended to outperform their polling in the state.

Dean Heller was at 60% on PredictIt 2 weeks before the 2018 election. I do think media is being very careful with polling after 2016 and 2020.

[Devils30]

Also Pew having D+2 while having Bidens approval at -23 sure is something lmao.

Undecideds are very Dem friendly in this one too.

[Devils30]

YouGov/Economist has GCB at D+5 this week, 44-39. Relatively unchanged, was 45-39 last week.

YouGov/Yahoo finds GCB at D+6 this week, 45-39
https://www.scribd.com/document/588832466/20220822-Yahoo-Tabs-Biden-Economy

Last night was  D+6 type of result FWIW.

[Devils30]

Calvert's seat is confusing... Rs only outvoted Ds 53-46 in the primary.

I don't know what inside elections is smoking.

NE-2 is rightfully a tossup, 50%+ college NJ-7 should be as well.

MN-2, NH-1, NY-18 should all be lean Dem and probably even CA-27

[Devils30]

Emerson GCB, R+1, 45-44

same as July

The D+5 should be taken seriously if the R+1 are. NY-19 was 3 points more R than Biden's popular vote in 2020 and 3 points more R than the 8% Dem win in 2018. Ryan +2.4 now....which would equate to D+5.

[Devils30]

CBS/YouGov's battleground tracker is updated. With a new poll, their outlook has gone from Rs leading 230-205 seats to 226-209

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1563896693359247361

The poll also has a ton of conservatives, few moderates, Dems winning independents but a GOP gain. The red flags for GOP are beginning to show, we should take the idea of Dems retaining the majority seriously.