2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[SnowLabrador]

Has anyone else noticed that the Democrats have been doing pretty well in generic ballot polling recently? On January 5, 2018, the Dems were up 11 points on the RCP aggregate. The GOP is up by 1.6 right now. 538 had the Democrats up 10, but the Republicans are up by only 0.5 at the moment. The midterms are obviously still going to swing R, but it's probably not going to be some 2010 or 2014 redux like some doomers on here are heralding.

That could be a good point but there is a possibility that republicans will overperform their current polling or gain in their polling lead as the year goes on

This. No Democratic President has had an approval rating lower than Biden's. 2022 will be a red wave of Biblical proportions.

[SnowLabrador]

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) continued to pad her re-election campaign war chest through the end of 2021, raking in more than $3.3 million in the final months of the year and boosting her cash on hand to $10.4 million — a record number for any U.S. Senate candidate in Nevada entering an election year.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/cortez-masto-banks-3-3-million-for-senate-bid-in-last-quarter-of-2021

She's still going to lose. If that NJ Senate leader could lose to a truck driver who spent $150 on his campaign, Cortez Masto will lose to Laxalt.

[SnowLabrador]

Based on Biden's approval rating, undecideds likely lean Republican.

[SnowLabrador]

Sadly, I'm not that surprised.

[SnowLabrador]

GCB Polls are now starting to match up more with Bidens Job Approval.

InsiderAdvantage R 49 / D 42

Havard-Harris R 53 / D 47

To be expected, sadly.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm so sick of hearing about John James.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1490722959174033415?s=20&t=ITYsve6...

Yeah, I don't believe this at all.

[SnowLabrador]

(A-) rated Trafalgar Group*

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/COSA-National-Issues-Full-Report-0209.pdf
1,073   LV   

R 54%
D 42%

If the gold standard says R+12, that means a bigger red wave than 2010. Thanks, DNC, for choosing Biden over Bernie.

[SnowLabrador]

(A-) rated Trafalgar Group*

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/COSA-National-Issues-Full-Report-0209.pdf
1,073   LV   

R 54%
D 42%

If the gold standard says R+12, that means a bigger red wave than 2010. Thanks, DNC, for choosing Biden over Bernie.

If Bernie had been nominated*, 2022 wouldn't be a red wave because it would be President Trump's six-year itch midterm. That's not better.

*A decision the voters make, not the DNC.

No that’d be much better.  Biden being President is destroying the Democrats, just like Obama.  I don’t think Democrats being a long term minority party below the Presidency is better than another four years of Trump.  If this election really is R+10 or worse, it will set the Democrats back at least a decade downballot when they can ill afford it (they are already quite weak in that respect).

Other than maybe a Supreme Court confirmation, what else will Dems have gained from Biden being President? 

The country not becoming a dictatorship during a second Trump term

Like that actually was going to happen.

To be fair, it probably would have. But I think Bernie would have beaten Trump by a larger margin. He'd certainly be fighting a lot harder for his agenda right now, as opposed to Biden, who's just rolling over and letting Republicans walk all over him.

[SnowLabrador]

Bye-bye democracy, I'll miss you.

[SnowLabrador]

This is sickening.

[SnowLabrador]

Am hearing rumors that Ted Deutch will be announcing his retirement shortly.

Well, that sucks.

[SnowLabrador]

The future looks very grim indeed.

[SnowLabrador]

Fundraising doesn't matter.

[SnowLabrador]

The 2022 Midterm Election will be a FULL BLOWN Disaster for Democrats if they can't close the Enthusiasm Gap.
According to a new ABC/Ipsos Poll Republicans lead Democrats by a whopping 20-Percentage Point margin
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/democrats-enthusiasm-problems-worsen-ahead-of-midterms-the-note/ar-AAW4ZJ6

Forget about all the GCB Polls who are showing a tight Race. The Enthusiasm matters most in Base Elections.

I expect Record Turnout in every Republican Primary for the next few months.

I mean it makes sense. Democrats have barely done anything, and the GOP's midterm strategy seems to just be boosting base turnout as much as humanly possible.

American politics: The feckless vs. the fascists. The feckless party doesn't fix the fascists' mess quickly enough, so they're voted out. Eventually they're voted in again after the fascists screw up once more. Only next time, we won't be able to get this country back.

[SnowLabrador]

FWIW Cook has moved 8 races rightward to either lean D or tossup, and Amy Walters said R’s have very little chance of not taking the house

Congratulations 47th President Trump in that case. I used to want to move to Canada, but the UK or Australia may be a better option, to be further from the US.

[SnowLabrador]

FWIW Cook has moved 8 races rightward to either lean D or tossup, and Amy Walters said R’s have very little chance of not taking the house

Congratulations 47th President Trump in that case. I used to want to move to Canada, but the UK or Australia may be a better option, to be further from the US.

I'm pretty bullish on Trump's 2024 chances, but a bad midterm for an incumbent doesn't necessarily mean losing re-election. What it does mean is that Biden will have to completely change his approach to everything in his last two years and somehow turn the political environment around.

Except that Republicans taking the House and swing state Governorships means they can overturn the election if a Democrat wins.

[SnowLabrador]

New Insider Advantage Poll has Republicans leading Democrats among Likely Voters by 12 Points (51-39). That seems more in line with the National Environment Democrats are facing.

The left-leaning Havard/Harris Poll has the GCB tied which is crap

https://amgreatness.com/2022/04/25/insider-advantage-poll-trump-would-beat-biden-47-percent-to-43-percent-if-election-were-held-today/

Trump leads Biden 47-43 in 2024 Rematch.

To be fair, I think a poll from the "Center for American Greatness" is probably R-leaning. But there's little doubt in my mind it'll be a red tsunami that makes 2010 look like child's play.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/Cavalewis/status/1520095372949049346?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

This year will make 2010 look like a blue wave.

[SnowLabrador]

Well, that sucks. I've said it before and I'll say it again: The United States is not a pro-choice country, as much as I may wish it were.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1522670972909805569

What the hell? The Democrats suck #$%@ at messaging!

[SnowLabrador]

Monmouth has R+7

50
43

Yeah, Roe being overturned isn't going to save Democrats. This country is doomed.

[SnowLabrador]

President Biden has a 70 % Disapproval Rating in Michigan according to a new EPIC-MRA Poll

https://www.wlns.com/news/local-news/poll-michigan-residents-want-roe-v-wade-to-stand/

Michigans want Roe vs Wade to stand by a large margin but that has no bearings at Bidens JA.

If the 70 % Disapproval Number is even close to be accurate the Election is over folks.

I believe this, but can't open the file because I'm in Italy right now.

[SnowLabrador]

Although the horrendous effects of this decision will be lasting, the public outrage will not be. The ruling itself will likely be forgotten in a few weeks, and then they'll start talking about gas prices again.

[SnowLabrador]

Well, that sucks. The one good thing that could have come out of overturning Roe v. Wade doesn't seem to be materializing.