2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Lief 🗽]

Especially coming from infallible high-quality gold standard Quinnipiac!

Especially coming from infallible high-quality gold standard Quinnipiac!

The funny thing is they've been one of Biden's worst approval polls.

[Terlylane]

Working families Party endorses Boebert challenger Sol Sandoval.

https://mobile.twitter.com/COWorkingFam/status/1397695112491069442

[Matty]

It is very disappointing that people who should know better (harry enten, nate silver, cohn, etc) are still retweeting QPAC as if its polling is adequate.

they have burned their reputation. They don't deserve our trust until they have an accurate cycle again

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It is very disappointing that people who should know better (harry enten, nate silver, cohn, etc) are still retweeting QPAC as if its polling is adequate.

they have burned their reputation. They don't deserve our trust until they have an accurate cycle again

They use RV vs LV the RV plus up the D's numbers just like the QU poll has it plus nine on Generic ballot but it's probably like 4 pts because QU is known for using RV screen which helps D's alot

But at same time we have seen split voting behavior in AZ, OH and Rs are blocking Commission and the Election is 500 days from now.

We can have a very good Senate election while Rs still maintain dominance in Gov Elections

We need as many Senators as we can to help out H candidates to prevent an R takeover of the H, if RS win the H, they are known to become entrenched once they get power D's spent 12 and 8 yrs in Minority

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It is very disappointing that people who should know better (harry enten, nate silver, cohn, etc) are still retweeting QPAC as if its polling is adequate.

they have burned their reputation. They don't deserve our trust until they have an accurate cycle again

They’re probably going off the 538 poll ratings which are based on the window no wider than three weeks prior to the election, beyond which many of Quinnipiac’s worst misses lay.

These ratings also have Trafalgar down as an A- pollster. It might deserve that relative to other pollsters these days, but “A-“ suggests it and Quinnipiac are actually decent. This is a problem with relative grading, especially restricted to a single electoral cycle.

[ElectionsGuy]

It is very disappointing that people who should know better (harry enten, nate silver, cohn, etc) are still retweeting QPAC as if its polling is adequate.

they have burned their reputation. They don't deserve our trust until they have an accurate cycle again

They don't care. These people are Democrats so they like the numbers they put out. It's that simple. And at this point, it's hard not to come to the conclusion that some of these pollsters (like The Hill, Reuters) are not purposely inflating their numbers for the purpose of Republican demoralization or to feed their audience what they want. 

If polling was this systematically slanted against the Democratic Party, these poll watch prognosticators would not be behaving the same towards them. They would be getting even worse treatment than Trafalgar did last year.

[President Johnson]

Well, the polls is Quinnipiac. It remains to be seen whether these polls are more accurate again in 2022 without Trump on the ballot and pollsters potentially fixing their issues. If the polls are more like in 2018, when they were relatively accurate, this isn't a bad sign. It's still way too early though.

[Devils30]

Any good D year is probably more like D+6 with gains of 3-7 seats in House and PA WI NC in senate for 53-47.

9% just won't happen.

[Xing]

What? Did someone say polls overestimated Democrats in 2020? Funny, I've NEVER heard anyone bring that up before! And what's that, Democrats live in a "bubble"? What an interesting, unique, and fresh perspective! I'll definitely reassess my political analysis and leanings as a result of such riveting and cutting-edge political commentary.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Biden's numbers weren't anything spectacular in the Q poll. Perhaps a lot of people aren't fans of what happened on 1/6 and there isn't a huge Biden 2020/R congress 2022 vote ahead.

Increasing polarization is going to help Democrats if Biden stays moderately popular. On election day 2018 Trump was at -9 in approval. Democrats won the NPV by 8.6%.

This could all be a honeymoon period, but increasing polarization could mean they are over.

[Devils30]

Biden's numbers weren't anything spectacular in the Q poll. Perhaps a lot of people aren't fans of what happened on 1/6 and there isn't a huge Biden 2020/R congress 2022 vote ahead.

Increasing polarization is going to help Democrats if Biden stays moderately popular. On election day 2018 Trump was at -9 in approval. Democrats won the NPV by 8.6%.

This could all be a honeymoon period, but increasing polarization could mean they are over.

Yep. My point is that using models from years like 1954 probably make little sense where the electorate wasn't polarized and Dems could win the House even with a popular Eisenhower.

[sting in the rafters]

Anyone else look at the crosstabs for the Qpac poll? They have indies as a statistical tie. That alone points more in the direction of D+4 (most public data like Pew Research has the national party edge as roughly D+3-5) than D+10. Surely we've all learned the dangers of labeling polls as skewed but I have a very hard time believing Ds have a double-digit lead when the poll only has them at 40% with indies.

[Devils30]

Anyone else look at the crosstabs for the Qpac poll? They have indies as a statistical tie. That alone points more in the direction of D+4 (most public data like Pew Research has the national party edge as roughly D+3-5) than D+10. Surely we've all learned the dangers of labeling polls as skewed but I have a very hard time believing Ds have a double-digit lead when the poll only has them at 40% with indies.

Rs have had a decrease in people identifying as Rs since Trump's post-election sh**tshow. Plenty probably still vote R for congress so this might be why they look better with indies. I would use 2020 as the baseline and assume D+9 isn't happening but D+6 would be a great target that is unlikely but not impossible.

[SnowLabrador]

Anyone else look at the crosstabs for the Qpac poll? They have indies as a statistical tie. That alone points more in the direction of D+4 (most public data like Pew Research has the national party edge as roughly D+3-5) than D+10. Surely we've all learned the dangers of labeling polls as skewed but I have a very hard time believing Ds have a double-digit lead when the poll only has them at 40% with indies.

Looking at crosstabs isn't necessarily reliable. For instance, I remember an IA-SEN 2020 poll that had a Reynolds +3 sample, and had Greenfield +3. The 2018 GOV numbers were a representative sample, but the 2020 SEN results were way off, as we all know.

That being said, I agree that Democrats almost certainly aren't up by 10 points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a close Election the PVI would be 2.5, it's a RV not LV sample in QU poll but Rs haven't won PVI since 2014 as long as we are in a Pandemic

[sting in the rafters]

Anyone else look at the crosstabs for the Qpac poll? They have indies as a statistical tie. That alone points more in the direction of D+4 (most public data like Pew Research has the national party edge as roughly D+3-5) than D+10. Surely we've all learned the dangers of labeling polls as skewed but I have a very hard time believing Ds have a double-digit lead when the poll only has them at 40% with indies.

Looking at crosstabs isn't necessarily reliable. For instance, I remember an IA-SEN 2020 poll that had a Reynolds +3 sample, and had Greenfield +3. The 2018 GOV numbers were a representative sample, but the 2020 SEN results were way off, as we all know.

That being said, I agree that Democrats almost certainly aren't up by 10 points.

At the same time YouGov's ideology crosstabs nailed the NPV for 2016/2018/2020. Do agree though, looking at crosstabs or participating in unskewing polls opens its own can of worms. There are various quirks to each pollster to keep in mind,

For example, as Iowa is 90+% white and 55+% WWC, the method of "assign all undecideds to R" serves pretty well in statewide races.

In a close Election the PVI would be 2.5, it's a RV not LV sample in QU poll but Rs haven't won PVI since 2014 as long as we are in a Pandemic

Didn't Rs win the house NPV in 2016?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://s3.amazonaws.com/carolinajournal.com/app/uploads/2021/05/14135751/2105024-JLF-NC-Toplines-v2.pdf

Generic Ballot, North Carolina
Cygnal
May 6-8
600 likely voters
MoE: 4%
Changes with "March 2021"

Generic state legislature: R+3 (without rounding)
Republican 48% (+2)
Democratic 44% (-1)
Unsure 8% (n/c)

GCB: R+1
Republican 47% (n/c)
Democratic 46% (n/c)
Unsure 6% (n/c)

Approval ratings for Biden and Cooper also in there along with favourabilities for a bunch of Senate hopefuls.

[MT Treasurer]

Generic Ballot, North Carolina

GCB: R+1
Republican 47% (n/c)
Democratic 46% (n/c)
Unsure 6% (n/c)

Biden approval: 48/49 (-1)

The meme should have always been Titanium Tilt R NC, not FL!

[Devils30]

https://s3.amazonaws.com/carolinajournal.com/app/uploads/2021/05/14135751/2105024-JLF-NC-Toplines-v2.pdf

Generic Ballot, North Carolina
Cygnal
May 6-8
600 likely voters
MoE: 4%
Changes with "March 2021"

Generic state legislature: R+3 (without rounding)
Republican 48% (+2)
Democratic 44% (-1)
Unsure 8% (n/c)

GCB: R+1
Republican 47% (n/c)
Democratic 46% (n/c)
Unsure 6% (n/c)

Approval ratings for Biden and Cooper also in there along with favourabilities for a bunch of Senate hopefuls.

Cyngal is a GOP internal...and R+1 is only the same margin as Trump 2020 in North Carolina. Even here the GCB is tied to Biden's approval rating...which seems low compared to his national numbers.

[Xing]

Generic Ballot, North Carolina

GCB: R+1
Republican 47% (n/c)
Democratic 46% (n/c)
Unsure 6% (n/c)

Biden approval: 48/49 (-1)

The meme should have always been Titanium Tilt R NC, not FL!

It is now, they just switched places, now FL is Titanium Lean R. Here are my predictions for 2022 and 2024:

NC-SEN 2022
McCrory 48.6%
Jackson 47.2%

NC-PRES 2024
Trump 49.8%
Biden 48.6%

NC-GOV 2024
Bishop 48.8%
Manning 47.5%

BONUS: NC-SEN 2026
If Biden wins:
Tills 48.7%
Ross 47.3%

If a Republican wins:
Tillis 48.6%
Ross 47.4%

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/wusf/status/1400113516669849605?s=20

[Roll Roons]

Rebekah Jones is apparently running against Matt Gaetz. Time to drop nukes on that district.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Crist isn't beating DeSantis especially not without HR 1, since DeSantis already up by 5/10 and he will Redistrict the map the way he wants and voter Suppression Laws passed

[Devils30]

Crist isn't beating DeSantis especially not without HR 1, since DeSantis already up by 5/10 and he will Redistrict the map the way he wants and voter Suppression Laws passed

 HR1 or not...Dems won't win that race

[Young Conservative]

Crist isn't beating DeSantis especially not without HR 1, since DeSantis already up by 5/10 and he will Redistrict the map the way he wants and voter Suppression Laws passed

....how is redistricting going to affect a statewide race?