2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread
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Author Topic: 2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 166596 times)
Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #250 on: May 04, 2021, 02:51:06 PM »

The NRCC is adding a ten more districts to their target list:



CA-07, CA-16, CA-36, IL-03, MI-05, NY-04, NY-20, NY-25, NY-26, PA-06

(Obviously, all of these seats are pretty big stretches in their current forms, but it's likely in anticipation of these seats being changed significantly in redistricting.)

Concerning the NYS targets I guess that they are betting on democrats adopting a very agressive gerrymander and that it will result in a massive dummymander in the Upstate (a lot of Biden+5 districts which could be vulnerable in a unfavourable climate).
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #251 on: May 04, 2021, 02:51:58 PM »



Look Ron, I think you've generally done a good job in office. But this is ridiculous.

Though it was equally ridiculous when Cuomo and Newsom kept NY-27 and CA-50 vacant forever.

At least he called a special.  Thought he was going to leave it open until 2022 unless a court ordered a special.
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beesley
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« Reply #252 on: May 05, 2021, 09:28:28 AM »



I'd be surprised if he was the nominee, but a credible candidate nonetheless.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #253 on: May 05, 2021, 09:30:32 AM »



I'd be surprised if he was the nominee, but a credible candidate nonetheless.

I doubt FL-13 will still be winnable for Dems as redrawn.  That’s a good part of the reason why Crist is running for governor.
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Canis
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« Reply #254 on: May 07, 2021, 12:55:29 PM »

Ojeda Launches a PAC to run and recruit candidates in Rural Districts
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #255 on: May 07, 2021, 01:16:51 PM »

Ojeda Launches a PAC to run and recruit candidates in Rural Districts

He's still active! Nice to see his passion. Do you reckon he has any income at the moment?
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Canis
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« Reply #256 on: May 07, 2021, 01:24:11 PM »

Ojeda Launches a PAC to run and recruit candidates in Rural Districts

He's still active! Nice to see his passion. Do you reckon he has any income at the moment?
No idea lol. Paula Jean has Twitter ranted about him for the past 3 weeks calling him a moderate and lover of Joe Manchin and apparently, she's saying he moved to North Carolina so maybe he's planning on carpetbagging their. Launching this though he might be too busy recruiting and fundraising for his candidates to run his own campaign.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #257 on: May 07, 2021, 03:03:05 PM »

Best place to post this...Congress is somehow not unpopular? Clearly there has been a opinion shift among the Democrats.

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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #258 on: May 07, 2021, 05:12:32 PM »

Best place to post this...Congress is somehow not unpopular? Clearly there has been a opinion shift among the Democrats.



That poll is a huge outlier. They also have Biden approval at +21%, which is way too high. Although Congress does now have the highest approval they've had since 2009. Democrats clearly now like Congress that they've got both chambers. Republicans though have always disliked it even when they had control, as much of late Obama/early Trump was spent below 20%.
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #259 on: May 14, 2021, 12:35:55 PM »

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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #260 on: May 14, 2021, 12:46:27 PM »



Link to the poll and its crosstabs?
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #261 on: May 14, 2021, 12:47:59 PM »



Link to the poll and its crosstabs?

https://democracycorps.com/uncategorized/trumps-engaged-party-defining-the-battle-for-2022/

They did mention that they intentionally oversampled Republicans.
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Devils30
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« Reply #262 on: May 14, 2021, 03:07:52 PM »

The oversampling Rs is fine, giving Dems a scare. The tie is also in battlegrounds even with this oversample. Hate these multiple state/combined district polls, such a weird sample.

A battleground phone poll of 1,000 registered voters, with an oversample of 500 Republicans was
conducted by phone April 27-May 3, 2021 from a voter-file sample. 67% of respondents were reached
on cell phones in order to accurately reflect the American electorate. The margin of error is +/- 3.5
percentage points.

4 South/Sunbelt States = AZ (+5), FL (+2), GA (+5), NV (+1)
7 Blue Wall States = MI (+1), ME (+3), MN (+1), NH (-), OH (+3), PA (-), WI (-)
13 Additional Frontline Congressional Districts:
• CA-39(+3), CA-45 (+3), CA-48 (+1), CA-49 (+4)
• NJ-03 (+3), NJ-05 (+1), NJ-07(+1), NJ-11 (-)
• TX-22 (+4), TX-24 (+2), TX-32 (+1)
• VA-02 (+1), VA-07 (+3)
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #263 on: May 14, 2021, 08:39:35 PM »

You guys really are paying attention to polls which are meaningless a yr out from the Election
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
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« Reply #264 on: May 15, 2021, 08:56:51 AM »

The oversampling Rs is fine, giving Dems a scare. The tie is also in battlegrounds even with this oversample. Hate these multiple state/combined district polls, such a weird sample.

A battleground phone poll of 1,000 registered voters, with an oversample of 500 Republicans was
conducted by phone April 27-May 3, 2021 from a voter-file sample. 67% of respondents were reached
on cell phones in order to accurately reflect the American electorate. The margin of error is +/- 3.5
percentage points.

4 South/Sunbelt States = AZ (+5), FL (+2), GA (+5), NV (+1)
7 Blue Wall States = MI (+1), ME (+3), MN (+1), NH (-), OH (+3), PA (-), WI (-)
13 Additional Frontline Congressional Districts:
• CA-39(+3), CA-45 (+3), CA-48 (+1), CA-49 (+4)
• NJ-03 (+3), NJ-05 (+1), NJ-07(+1), NJ-11 (-)
• TX-22 (+4), TX-24 (+2), TX-32 (+1)
• VA-02 (+1), VA-07 (+3)

Oversampling of Republicans (or any other group) doesn't mean [at all] that the poll's skewed. They don't give more weight to R. They just wanted to decrease MOE *inside* the group to study Republicans' attitudes towards Trump etc.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #265 on: May 15, 2021, 09:52:14 AM »

I would remind all these Doomers that predict a Red wave Rs typically suppose to net 23 seats in a typical midterm, the fact D's are tied and Biden is at 50 isn't bad news, unless Biden has a subpar approvals, D's will do well in the Midterms
D's didn't win 33H seats in 2017, D's won them in 2018, as s I said befire blue wave is meaningless a yr before an Election
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #266 on: May 16, 2021, 09:11:41 PM »

Generic ballot test doesn't mean anything, unless Rs start taking a lead on it, they're not taking the H right now it's tied but it's been plus 5 and unless Biden is a 44 percent Prez, the D's aren't gonna lose their lead on the ballot
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #267 on: May 17, 2021, 08:49:18 AM »

The oversampling Rs is fine, giving Dems a scare. The tie is also in battlegrounds even with this oversample. Hate these multiple state/combined district polls, such a weird sample.

A battleground phone poll of 1,000 registered voters, with an oversample of 500 Republicans was
conducted by phone April 27-May 3, 2021 from a voter-file sample. 67% of respondents were reached
on cell phones in order to accurately reflect the American electorate. The margin of error is +/- 3.5
percentage points.

4 South/Sunbelt States = AZ (+5), FL (+2), GA (+5), NV (+1)
7 Blue Wall States = MI (+1), ME (+3), MN (+1), NH (-), OH (+3), PA (-), WI (-)
13 Additional Frontline Congressional Districts:
• CA-39(+3), CA-45 (+3), CA-48 (+1), CA-49 (+4)
• NJ-03 (+3), NJ-05 (+1), NJ-07(+1), NJ-11 (-)
• TX-22 (+4), TX-24 (+2), TX-32 (+1)
• VA-02 (+1), VA-07 (+3)

Oversampling of Republicans (or any other group) doesn't mean [at all] that the poll's skewed. They don't give more weight to R. They just wanted to decrease MOE *inside* the group to study Republicans' attitudes towards Trump etc.

Oversampling is going to be critical to any sort of rebound in polling accuracy. And it shouldn't necessarily be Republicans, but the demographics associated with non-response, like region, education, etc. Also need a variety of sampling methods since live caller is nearly obsolete at this point.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #268 on: May 17, 2021, 05:54:16 PM »

While history suggests the GOP should be doing well, the flip-side for them is that midterms tend to be more white and more educated...demographics which have been trending Dem in most cases.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #269 on: May 17, 2021, 06:01:14 PM »

While history suggests the GOP should be doing well, the flip-side for them is that midterms tend to be more white and more educated...demographics which have been trending Dem in most cases.


Do you trust them in down-ballot races though? 2020 ticket-splitting made me very hesitant to have confidence in them to recognize the GOP as the Trump hive-mind they truly are.
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Lognog
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« Reply #270 on: May 17, 2021, 09:19:27 PM »

While history suggests the GOP should be doing well, the flip-side for them is that midterms tend to be more white and more educated...demographics which have been trending Dem in most cases.


I see this take a lot, but it totally ignores that minorities are the true back bone of the Democratic Party. Yes, the suburban gains were key to almost every win in 2020, however, the dems wouldn't have won much outside of New England with just white voters
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Brittain33
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« Reply #271 on: May 18, 2021, 12:01:38 PM »

My Hopium is wearing off with all the Dems jumping ship so early in the cycle.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
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« Reply #272 on: May 18, 2021, 04:35:05 PM »

My Hopium is wearing off with all the Dems jumping ship so early in the cycle.

Huh
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The Smiling Face On Your TV
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« Reply #273 on: May 18, 2021, 04:42:23 PM »



Link to the poll and its crosstabs?

https://democracycorps.com/uncategorized/trumps-engaged-party-defining-the-battle-for-2022/

They did mention that they intentionally oversampled Republicans.




From the poll's body:


Quote
Trump’s continuing battle to reverse an election stolen by Democrats and
Black voters brings out the drivers of GOP identity — deep hostility to
Black Lives Matter, undocumented immigrants, and Antifa.




Um..... I have my share of doubts regarding this poll's credibility.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #274 on: May 20, 2021, 11:19:01 AM »
« Edited: May 20, 2021, 02:30:29 PM by Roll Roons »

Sabato and his team put out an interesting article on how they'd hypothetically rate House seats if the same lines were being used in 2022:



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