2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread
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Author Topic: 2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 166614 times)
S019
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« Reply #200 on: April 16, 2021, 03:10:18 PM »

TJ Cox is out in CA-21 after poor Q1 fundraising-



Very good, he was literally driftwood in 2018, we need someone better. I am personally hoping Salas runs.
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Lognog
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« Reply #201 on: April 16, 2021, 05:43:11 PM »

TJ Cox is out in CA-21 after poor Q1 fundraising-



thank god
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JMT
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« Reply #202 on: April 17, 2021, 04:08:03 PM »

Not entirely sure what this means, but it could be relevant for the 2022 CO-04 election:

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Born to Slay. Forced to Work.
leecannon
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« Reply #203 on: April 17, 2021, 04:10:40 PM »

Not entirely sure what this means, but it could be relevant for the 2022 CO-04 election:



He already said he wasn’t running for Senate iirc, he’s probably retiring or running for some other statewide office?
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #204 on: April 17, 2021, 04:16:03 PM »

Not entirely sure what this means, but it could be relevant for the 2022 CO-04 election:



He already said he wasn’t running for Senate iirc, he’s probably retiring or running for some other statewide office?

Maybe running for Governor? But even that would very much be a longshot.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #205 on: April 18, 2021, 06:10:22 PM »

Did we ever get any fundraising numbers for TX-06?
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #206 on: April 19, 2021, 04:11:31 PM »

Did we ever get any fundraising numbers for TX-06?
They're coming out in pieces today.



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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #207 on: April 21, 2021, 08:52:59 AM »

PEM MANAGEMENT GENERIC BALLOT POLL (for a pro Bolton PAC) :

Republicans : 43%
Democrats : 40%

https://boltonsuperpac.com/pdfs/crostabs_04202021.pdf
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #208 on: April 21, 2021, 04:44:44 PM »

PEM MANAGEMENT GENERIC BALLOT POLL (for a pro Bolton PAC) :

Republicans : 43%
Democrats : 40%

https://boltonsuperpac.com/pdfs/crostabs_04202021.pdf

This sounds like it would be a Republican-leaning poll. That said, not good, especially if polling underestimates the GOP yet again.
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Matty
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« Reply #209 on: April 22, 2021, 09:50:26 PM »

That poll seems way off.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #210 on: April 23, 2021, 06:44:20 AM »
« Edited: April 23, 2021, 07:07:10 AM by We Made PA Blue Again! »

PEM MANAGEMENT GENERIC BALLOT POLL (for a pro Bolton PAC) :

Republicans : 43%
Democrats : 40%

https://boltonsuperpac.com/pdfs/crostabs_04202021.pdf

This sounds like it would be a Republican-leaning poll. That said, not good, especially if polling underestimates the GOP yet again.

The past four years of elections have given us ample amount of evidence that really only happens when Trump is actually on the ballot. There is no shy Republican vote.

Besides, the poll sample is only D +0.7
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #211 on: April 23, 2021, 07:36:14 AM »

PEM MANAGEMENT GENERIC BALLOT POLL (for a pro Bolton PAC) :

Republicans : 43%
Democrats : 40%

https://boltonsuperpac.com/pdfs/crostabs_04202021.pdf

This sounds like it would be a Republican-leaning poll. That said, not good, especially if polling underestimates the GOP yet again.

The past four years of elections have given us ample amount of evidence that really only happens when Trump is actually on the ballot. There is no shy Republican vote.

Besides, the poll sample is only D +0.7

Were you alive during the 2014 midterms ? That year Republicans overperformed the generic ballot by 3 points and polls generally overestimated democratic candidates in most competitive races (Crist up in FL, democrats winning in KS, Hagan ahead of Thom Tillis, the IA-Sen race).

And 2018 was hardly better for the polling industry with big failures in Ohio (Cordray was ahead by 4 points according to the polling average !), Indiana, Missouri but also Florida and Tennessee.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #212 on: April 23, 2021, 07:57:57 AM »
« Edited: April 23, 2021, 05:12:50 PM by We Made PA Blue Again! »

PEM MANAGEMENT GENERIC BALLOT POLL (for a pro Bolton PAC) :

Republicans : 43%
Democrats : 40%

https://boltonsuperpac.com/pdfs/crostabs_04202021.pdf

This sounds like it would be a Republican-leaning poll. That said, not good, especially if polling underestimates the GOP yet again.

The past four years of elections have given us ample amount of evidence that really only happens when Trump is actually on the ballot. There is no shy Republican vote.

Besides, the poll sample is only D +0.7

Were you alive during the 2014 midterms ? That year Republicans overperformed the generic ballot by 3 points and polls generally overestimated democratic candidates in most competitive races (Crist up in FL, democrats winning in KS, Hagan ahead of Thom Tillis, the IA-Sen race).

And 2018 was hardly better for the polling industry with big failures in Ohio (Cordray was ahead by 4 points according to the polling average !), Indiana, Missouri but also Florida and Tennessee.

Lol and polls underestimated the Democrats in 2012. My point is that there is no shy Republican vote, and that stands.

And what about 2018? The Democrats did about as well nationwide as the polls suggested. In fact, they even over performed in the House election. Every election is going to have a few races that are off.
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beesley
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« Reply #213 on: April 23, 2021, 04:44:01 PM »



Couldn't find anywhere else to put this.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #214 on: April 25, 2021, 05:15:33 AM »

PEM MANAGEMENT GENERIC BALLOT POLL (for a pro Bolton PAC) :

Republicans : 43%
Democrats : 40%

https://boltonsuperpac.com/pdfs/crostabs_04202021.pdf

This sounds like it would be a Republican-leaning poll. That said, not good, especially if polling underestimates the GOP yet again.

The past four years of elections have given us ample amount of evidence that really only happens when Trump is actually on the ballot. There is no shy Republican vote.

Besides, the poll sample is only D +0.7

Were you alive during the 2014 midterms ? That year Republicans overperformed the generic ballot by 3 points and polls generally overestimated democratic candidates in most competitive races (Crist up in FL, democrats winning in KS, Hagan ahead of Thom Tillis, the IA-Sen race).

And 2018 was hardly better for the polling industry with big failures in Ohio (Cordray was ahead by 4 points according to the polling average !), Indiana, Missouri but also Florida and Tennessee.

Lol and polls underestimated the Democrats in 2012. My point is that there is no shy Republican vote, and that stands.

And what about 2018? The Democrats did about as well nationwide as the polls suggested. In fact, they even over performed in the House election. Every election is going to have a few races that are off.

Yeah, and it's actually pretty telling that democrats have not overperformed their polling numbers since 2012, an era in which they were far more reliant on white non college voters (= the voters who are the most likely to refuse to answer polls), and considering how both parties' coalitions are evolving it is fairly plausible that polls will overestimate democrats once again next year. Concerning the reason why democrats tend to do better in polls than in the real life, I don't think it has anything to do with '' shy republican voters '' but more with the fact that white liberals are more likely to answers pollsters' calls than other social groups.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #215 on: April 25, 2021, 09:08:02 AM »

NBC News Generic Ballot Poll : D+5

D : 47% (-1 vs October 2020)
R : 42% (-1 vs October 2020)

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/20690434-210098-nbc-news-april-poll-4-25-21-release

(By the way they have Biden approval at +8 among RVs and the sample is D+8)
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Devils30
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« Reply #216 on: April 25, 2021, 10:14:25 AM »

No change from 2020. Don't expect much anytime soon either as Biden approvals pretty much reflect last year's numbers, the only group where he's improved by a bit relative to 2020 is Hispanics which bodes well for Dems in NV, AZ.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #217 on: April 25, 2021, 10:41:39 AM »

NBC News Generic Ballot Poll : D+5

D : 47% (-1 vs October 2020)
R : 42% (-1 vs October 2020)

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/20690434-210098-nbc-news-april-poll-4-25-21-release

(By the way they have Biden approval at +8 among RVs and the sample is D+8)


The sample is a bit D friendly, isn't it? Anyways, so far out that pretty much tells us nothing. Biden isn't even prez for 100 days.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #218 on: April 25, 2021, 11:54:09 AM »

No change from 2020. Don't expect much anytime soon either as Biden approvals pretty much reflect last year's numbers, the only group where he's improved by a bit relative to 2020 is Hispanics which bodes well for Dems in NV, AZ.

It seems that Biden is, to the contrary, overperforming relatively more among white voters than among hispanics, for example the last Yougov poll has his approval rate among hispanics at " only " +21 and Quinnipiac gives him even lower numbers among them (+16 only). MC is a exception to this trend as they give him a +41 approval rate among hispanics but Morning Consult is a also much more favourable to Biden than other polls as they routinely give him a +20 approval.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #219 on: April 25, 2021, 03:46:43 PM »

If D's are at 47/42 I don't see how they win in 2022, even at this early date, they are the Insurrectionists party
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #220 on: April 28, 2021, 12:21:49 AM »

PEM MANAGEMENT GENERIC BALLOT POLL (for a pro Bolton PAC) :

Republicans : 43%
Democrats : 40%

https://boltonsuperpac.com/pdfs/crostabs_04202021.pdf

This sounds like it would be a Republican-leaning poll. That said, not good, especially if polling underestimates the GOP yet again.

The past four years of elections have given us ample amount of evidence that really only happens when Trump is actually on the ballot. There is no shy Republican vote.

Besides, the poll sample is only D +0.7

Were you alive during the 2014 midterms ? That year Republicans overperformed the generic ballot by 3 points and polls generally overestimated democratic candidates in most competitive races (Crist up in FL, democrats winning in KS, Hagan ahead of Thom Tillis, the IA-Sen race).

And 2018 was hardly better for the polling industry with big failures in Ohio (Cordray was ahead by 4 points according to the polling average !), Indiana, Missouri but also Florida and Tennessee.

Lol and polls underestimated the Democrats in 2012. My point is that there is no shy Republican vote, and that stands.

And what about 2018? The Democrats did about as well nationwide as the polls suggested. In fact, they even over performed in the House election. Every election is going to have a few races that are off.

Yeah, and it's actually pretty telling that democrats have not overperformed their polling numbers since 2012, an era in which they were far more reliant on white non college voters (= the voters who are the most likely to refuse to answer polls), and considering how both parties' coalitions are evolving it is fairly plausible that polls will overestimate democrats once again next year. Concerning the reason why democrats tend to do better in polls than in the real life, I don't think it has anything to do with '' shy republican voters '' but more with the fact that white liberals are more likely to answers pollsters' calls than other social groups.

I wonder what happened from 2012 to 2014 that pushed non-college whites towards the GOP.
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beesley
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« Reply #221 on: April 29, 2021, 02:26:18 PM »


Worth cross-posting here. If this is confirmed and if Murphy runs for Senate as well, that all but guarantees a new Democrat Rep. in the Orlando area.
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beesley
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« Reply #222 on: April 30, 2021, 08:50:40 AM »



The former Huntsville Superintendent of Education or whatever the title is.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #223 on: April 30, 2021, 03:44:18 PM »

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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #224 on: May 02, 2021, 02:29:06 PM »
« Edited: May 02, 2021, 03:14:21 PM by Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon »

Pretty obvious we're getting this on Jan 3, 2023, if not earlier.

Pledge your loyalty and discuss how the House will improve under his leadership.

(mods please sticky)
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