2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Devils30]

Wasserman kind of touching on it, but amazing that none of the pundits have even touched the fact that almost all of the nonpartisan house polling looks.... surprisingly good for Dems. Of course, it goes against their narrative so I'm not surprised.

If the Ds win those districts and do extremely well with college whites, it leaves them a path through NC-13, NJ-7, CO-8, NM-2 and maybe CA-45 that no one believes is possible but statistically are hardly unwinnable.

[Devils30]

Also it's kind of crazy that there could actually be four Republican House members from New England. They haven't had that many since before the 2006 midterms.

A lot of this list will be one termers and completely cooked with a Trump 2024 nomination. A lot of this list flips in an R+4 year but not an R+1, will be interesting.

I disagree completely with CA-49, Levin was up 6 and it voted no on the recall I believe.

[Devils30]

The ME-02 result is... odd? Considering even if Golden doesn't win outright, he's likely to win b/c of the Independent vote going for him in the 2nd round.

Cartwright losing also kind of goes against all the stuff we've seen from that district polling wise.

Quite a bit of curious choices on there.

They are both running in Trump districts in a year that will prolly be worse than 2020 for Dems. Yes they have both made an effort to distance themselves, but with the way things are looking, Golden may need like a 12 point overperformance of partisanship which is quite tricky though not impossible.

I mean I'm literally just going off of public polling, all of which has had Cartwright and Golden ahead.

We need to chill, they all know as much as we do. It's a guessing a game. That said, there are a lot of Biden +11 type seats I think the Rs will be disappointed about on election night.

[Devils30]

Trends happen, candidates matter but I have a real hard time squaring up these House races. If Dems really win PA-8, NM-2, KS-3 (big) and NY-19,22, are they really at any risk whatsoever in CT-5, RI-2, NY-17? These polls consistently have Dems holding their own in swing seats and if a lot actually hang on, are the Biden double digit seats really competitive?

[Devils30]

Wasserman's thoughts on how the Tossup races break:
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1589426102141079554?cxt=HHwWhMDS7cyn444sAA...

I wouldn't be surprised if he does one final ratings update tomorrow morning.

Fascinating; he's at 234-201, to RRH's final call of 245-190. Here are the races they're predicting break differently:

Wasserman blue, RRH red:
IN-1 (Mrvan)
MI-8 (Kildee) (Wasserman at Leans D)
NV-1 (Titus)
NV-4 (Horsford) (Wasserman at Leans D)
NY-3 (Suozzi)
NY-18 (Ryan) (Wasserman at Leans D)
NY-19 (Ryan)
OH-1 (Chabot)
PA-17 (Lamb)
TX-28 (Cuellar) (Wasserman at Leans D)
TX-34 (Flores)
VA-7 (Spanberger)

Wasserman red, RRH blue:
CA-49 (Levin)

There is probably one seat I've missed them disagreeing on, because the numbers need one more "Wasserman blue, RRH red" seat to add up, but for the life of me I can't find it. I guess, uh, pretend Wasserman didn't call Levin losing -- by far his weirdest call, points at a much redder year than everything else he said -- and then this all works, and there are 11 "especially controversial" seats to look at, where both sides seem confident.

EDIT: NVM, found it, was confused by Wasserman terming NY-19, which Ryan is leaving, to be "Ryan's seat", while RRH was terming NY-18, which he is coming to, as Ryan's seat. There are 12 seats that Wasserman has called blue but RRH has called red, and 1 seat that is the reverse; for some reason CA-49.

CNAnalysis's final call for the House is 230-205, so a little more pessimistic on GOP odds than Wasserman: https://projects.cnalysis.com/21-22/house

He has CA-49 going blue (...obviously), and of the races where Wasserman and RRH disagree, he has 10/12 going Democratic (all but NY-19 and OH-1, which he's calling for the GOP). This leaves 5 races he's calling for the Democrats which both RRH and Wasserman have going Republican:
CA-13 (Harder)
IL-17 (Bustos)
ME-2 (Golden)
MI-7 (Slotkin)
MN-2 (Craig)
WA-8 (Schrier)

...you'll notice 6. There is one race CN has going Republican which Wasserman and RRH both have as blue:
OH-13 (Gibbs)

~~

So, we have the following breakdown:
RRH red, Wasserman blue, CNAnalysis blue:
IN-1 (Mrvan)
MI-8 (Kildee)
NV-1 (Titus)
NV-4 (Horsford)
NY-3 (Suozzi)
NY-18 (Ryan)
PA-17 (Lamb)
TX-28 (Cuellar)
TX-34 (Flores) (R --> D possibility)
VA-7 (Spanberger)

RRH red, Wasserman blue, CNAnalysis red:
NY-19 (Tenney) (R --> D possibility)
OH-1 (Chabot) (R --> D possibility)

RRH red, Wasserman red, CNAnalysis blue:
CA-13 (Harder)
IL-17 (Bustos)
ME-2 (Golden)
MI-7 (Slotkin)
MN-2 (Craig)
WA-8 (Schrier)

RRH blue, Wasserman red, CNAnalysis blue:
CA-49 (Levin)

RRH blue, Wasserman blue, CNAnalysis red:
OH-13 (Gibbs) (R --> D possibility)

Seats that all of these analyses agree are flipping R to D: IL-13, MI-3

Seats that all of these analyses agree are flipping D to R: AZ-2, AZ-6, CT-5 (!!), FL-4, FL-7, FL-13, GA-6, IA-3, MI-10, NV-3 (!), NH-1 (!!), NJ-7, OR-5 (!!!), PA-7, PA-8 (!), RI-2 (!!!!), TN-5, TX-15, VA-2, WI-3

That is a strange and motley crew of seats everyone agrees are going Republican. (There also might need to be a category of 'seats that everyone notably thinks will be held by Democrats, even though they are obviously on-paper good targets' -- AK-AL, OH-9 and KS-3 fit in this category.)

I count 227 seats that all of these projections agree are voting Republican, though more than a couple of them are actually very weird calls.

I just find it weird the Senate with all these Biden +1 or less seats is a complete tossup, yet everyone is giving the GOP a ton of Biden +7-12 House seats with very little evidence. It would be one thing if we had multiple high quality polls in CT-5, RI-2, OR-5 but we have none. Meanwhile we have them in PA-8, NM-2, NY-19, NY-22, CA-49, MN-2, NH-1 and none are really bad for Dems.

Given polarization, it's just difficult seeing the GOP not winning the Senate but then winning 25 house seats as these analysts suggest. I feel like a 51-49 GOP Senate could come alongside a disappointing 12 house seat gain for them instead of a major wave. If they are gaining 25+ it very well may be a 53-47 Senate and Ds getting a 51-49 Senate may mean the GOP is sweating out the House for a week.

[Devils30]

From what I'm getting from Split/Ticket, Cook, and Crystal Ball, is essentially them saying the polls are wrong in GOP's favor lol. Because the GCB and specific house polling is not really correlating with their general predictions.

I wish I knew wtf was happening right now, but I don't!

[Devils30]

The language is a little more complicated, but I still read the implication that Walker could win on the night. And I don’t see that squaring with a CCM win.

This would go against all logic, that Dems are winning with working class voters of all races but losing ground with college whites. If anything I expect college whites in north Fulton, Cobb to be the firewall to limit Dem losses.