2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Frenchrepublican]

The House GOP's roadmap :

https://www.axios.com/house-gop-memo-trump-embrace-only-option-for-comeback-4cc95492-0c86-4fe5-b592-84ff12b7e5d0.html

Ah yes, embracing a complete failure who lost the House, the presidency, & then the Senate for the GOP is their only option for a comeback. It almost makes too much sense!!

I don't think you can really blame Trump for losing the Senate, I mean the main reason why Republicans don't have a majority in the Senate is because they totally screwed up 2018 MT/OH/WV Sen races, Trump was popular in these three states and you can't blame him if the geniuses at the NRSC decided not to target them a bit more seriously.

[Frenchrepublican]

I didn't realize CO was doing new lines this year. So what will Boebert's district likely look like in 2022?

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1377604181733875727

She's a grifter. Boebert isn't losing.

Boebert is beatable with the right candidate and a little luck, but Donovan is very much the wrong type of Democrat to flip this district.

Boebert is probably not beatable under the current lines, if the district becomes more competitive, yeah she would be vulnerable, but CO has a non partisan commission so it's a bit unlikely her district will become much more left leaning

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/VoteMeijer/status/1377811659398451201

[brucejoel99]

The House GOP's roadmap :

https://www.axios.com/house-gop-memo-trump-embrace-only-option-for-comeback-4cc95492-0c86-4fe5-b592-84ff12b7e5d0.html

Ah yes, embracing a complete failure who lost the House, the presidency, & then the Senate for the GOP is their only option for a comeback. It almost makes too much sense!!

I don't think you can really blame Trump for losing the Senate, I mean the main reason why Republicans don't have a majority in the Senate is because they totally screwed up 2018 MT/OH/WV Sen races, Trump was popular in these three states and you can't blame him if the geniuses at the NRSC decided not to target them a bit more seriously.

I'd vigorously refute the notion that the main reason why Republicans don't have the Senate majority right now is because of that so much as it's immediately moreso due to the death from a thousand cuts that was Trump spending the 2 months between Nov. 7th & Jan. 5th actively delegitimizing elections in general - & Georgian elections in particular - & saying that his voters' votes didn't matter since it was rigged against them anyway: as it turns out, enough of his voters listened.

[Frenchrepublican]

The House GOP's roadmap :

https://www.axios.com/house-gop-memo-trump-embrace-only-option-for-comeback-4cc95492-0c86-4fe5-b592-84ff12b7e5d0.html

Ah yes, embracing a complete failure who lost the House, the presidency, & then the Senate for the GOP is their only option for a comeback. It almost makes too much sense!!

I don't think you can really blame Trump for losing the Senate, I mean the main reason why Republicans don't have a majority in the Senate is because they totally screwed up 2018 MT/OH/WV Sen races, Trump was popular in these three states and you can't blame him if the geniuses at the NRSC decided not to target them a bit more seriously.

I'd vigorously refute the notion that the main reason why Republicans don't have the Senate majority right now is because of that so much as it's immediately moreso due to the death from a thousand cuts that was Trump spending the 2 months between Nov. 7th & Jan. 5th actively delegitimizing elections in general - & Georgian elections in particular - & saying that his voters' votes didn't matter since it was rigged against them anyway: as it turns out, enough of his voters listened.

Perdue and Loeffler received around 90% of the votes that Trump got two months earlier, besides both of them received more votes than Kemp got in 2018, so I don't think that the problem was a lack of enthusiasm among GOP voters, if you had told Perdue in November that he would get 2.2M votes in January he probably would have been very confident about the race.

[brucejoel99]

The House GOP's roadmap :

https://www.axios.com/house-gop-memo-trump-embrace-only-option-for-comeback-4cc95492-0c86-4fe5-b592-84ff12b7e5d0.html

Ah yes, embracing a complete failure who lost the House, the presidency, & then the Senate for the GOP is their only option for a comeback. It almost makes too much sense!!

I don't think you can really blame Trump for losing the Senate, I mean the main reason why Republicans don't have a majority in the Senate is because they totally screwed up 2018 MT/OH/WV Sen races, Trump was popular in these three states and you can't blame him if the geniuses at the NRSC decided not to target them a bit more seriously.

I'd vigorously refute the notion that the main reason why Republicans don't have the Senate majority right now is because of that so much as it's immediately moreso due to the death from a thousand cuts that was Trump spending the 2 months between Nov. 7th & Jan. 5th actively delegitimizing elections in general - & Georgian elections in particular - & saying that his voters' votes didn't matter since it was rigged against them anyway: as it turns out, enough of his voters listened.

Perdue and Loeffler received around 90% of the votes that Trump got two months earlier, besides both of them received more votes than Kemp got in 2018, so I don't think that the problem was a lack of enthusiasm among GOP voters, if you had told Perdue in November that he would get 2.2M votes in January he probably would have been very confident about the race.

What you've just said still doesn't actually negate what I said, though, & as for the bolded, it just can't be any farther from the truth when Trump's insistence that the election had been stolen from him but that he had actually won & would surely be re-inaugurated prevented Republicans from actively being able to remind the voters that control of the Senate was actually at stake & being able to appeal to suburbanite-swing voters who would've been open to the argument of putting a check on Biden's power since to do so would've been to not stick to Trump's big lie as even a 50-50 Senate would've still been controlled by Republicans if - as Trump was saying - Pence was gonna be re-inaugurated as VP alongside Trump, when many loyal Trumpists with large-enough platforms actively sought to discourage Republican turnout, & when the Republican candidates weren't enabled to distance themselves from Trump adequately enough in order to retain suburbanite-swing support. And all of that's before one even considers that the stupid-own-goal-for-the-Republicans that was the entirely-Trump-initiated debate over $2K checks took up the entirety of the campaign's final days & not only saw McConnell refuse to support it, but Perdue & Loeffler oppose it before then near-immediately backtracking given the obvious popularity thereof among even the Republican voters who they were gonna need to win: if they support them from the very beginning, or if Mitch just bites the bullet & lets it pass, or if Trump just doesn't open his stupid-for-the-Republicans mouth on it at all, then you probably see at least Perdue maintain enough ground to not lose to Ossoff by just 55K votes out of the nearly 4.5M votes cast, thereby maintaining Republican control of the Senate.

All of this is to say that if you literally change just one of these factors, then Mitch McConnell is still Majority Leader today.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/bresreports/status/1379029880252289028?s=20

[Lognog]

https://twitter.com/bresreports/status/1379029880252289028?s=20

That's going to be an R +20 district lol

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/dannyoconnor1/status/1379072842952679427?s=20

Running for the House, not Senate.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Am I the only one who thinks it’s weird that people are announcing for congressional races in states that don’t even have the districts they’d be running in yet?

[Frenchrepublican]

Am I the only one who thinks it’s weird that people are announcing for congressional races in states that don’t even have the districts they’d be running in yet?

I guess it allow you to raise funds

[Frenchrepublican]

A very useful reading about Senate elections :

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1379426962310041600?s=20

[beesley]

Didn't see this had been mentioned anywhere:

https://twitter.com/Transit_nerd/status/1366173029311520772?s=20

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/bresreports/status/1379029880252289028?s=20

Lol this district probably isn't even going to exist in the next election.

[MT Treasurer]

A very useful reading about Senate elections :

*SNIP*

Stating the obvious pundit talking points isn’t really that useful, suggesting that IA could come into play is as outright delusional as thinking that Tim Kaine could lose in 2018 after Trump had already won, using what is increasingly becoming an inherently subjective/meaningless criterion ("problematic candidate") as input into your model is problematic, and identifying 49% as the "breaking point" at which the Senate should be considered a true Tossup is fairly generous to Democrats. This is way too reliant on uniform swing as well.

[Gracile]

The DCCC released its offensive target list for 2022 yesterday:

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1379424480259362818

It's obviously a much more limited list of seats (mostly just close losses in 2020), though there are a few districts that seem like possible redistricting targets - as well as ignoring several seats where redistricting will take once competitive seats off the table.

[brucejoel99]

The DCCC released its offensive target list for 2022 yesterday:

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1379424480259362818

It's obviously a much more limited list of seats (mostly just close losses in 2020), though there are a few districts that seem like possible redistricting targets - as well as ignoring several seats where redistricting will take once competitive seats off the table.

No NY-11? I guess they're confident it'll be given enough more of Brooklyn in redistricting.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

The DCCC released its offensive target list for 2022 yesterday:

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1379424480259362818

It's obviously a much more limited list of seats (mostly just close losses in 2020), though there are a few districts that seem like possible redistricting targets - as well as ignoring several seats where redistricting will take once competitive seats off the table.

The four California seats and TX-24 are by far the five easiest targets on the list (not counting AZ-02, which shouldn't really be on there to begin with). I have an extremely hard time seeing any of the others flipping in a neutral or GOP-favorable midterm, aside from NY redistricting shaking things up there.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1380205641441058823

Huge news out of VA-02. Jen Kiggans is a State Senator in a Clinton district that no Republican has carried in a statewide race since.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1380205641441058823

Huge news out of VA-02. Jen Kiggans is a State Senator in a Clinton district that no Republican has carried in a statewide race since.

Cooch carried it in 2013 and Gillespie did in 2014.  Frank Wagner represented this district for quite a while before Kiggans.  And Kiggans only won her first (and as of right now, only) term by the skin of her teeth.  Clinton carried it by less than 0.3%.  I'm not saying Kiggan's not a solid recruit - she may very well be - but I wouldn't call this huge news either.  It's not too different from any other time a party recruits a decent candidate for a competitive House district.

[Frenchrepublican]

The DCCC released its offensive target list for 2022 yesterday:

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1379424480259362818

It's obviously a much more limited list of seats (mostly just close losses in 2020), though there are a few districts that seem like possible redistricting targets - as well as ignoring several seats where redistricting will take once competitive seats off the table.

The four California seats and TX-24 are by far the five easiest targets on the list (not counting AZ-02, which shouldn't really be on there to begin with). I have an extremely hard time seeing any of the others flipping in a neutral or GOP-favorable midterm, aside from NY redistricting shaking things up there.

I don't really see the point of targeting the two districts in Missouri/Indiana.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1380205747640836096

Solid recruit for the GOP. Redistricting probably won't shift this seat much in either direction.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1380205747640836096

Solid recruit for the GOP. Redistricting probably won't shift this seat much in either direction.

Already she has strong competition.

https://twitter.com/JaromeBellVA/status/1380754646298460171?s=19

[Wormless Gourd]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1382310796319948807?s=20
Large Q1 hauls for Rs in close seats and NV-4's D
Elise Stefanik raised $1.1 mil

[Gracile]

TJ Cox is out in CA-21 after poor Q1 fundraising-

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1383088376794927105