2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread
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Author Topic: 2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 166648 times)
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1550 on: June 28, 2022, 02:38:21 PM »

Meanwhile back in reality, Trafalgar has R+9 on the generic ballot

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/nat-generic-ballot-0627/
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UncleSam
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« Reply #1551 on: June 28, 2022, 02:50:47 PM »

What was the survey period for this? It just says ‘June’…and I believe that this wa what the generic ballot was among LV for November as of a week or two ago. Today is a completely different story, however.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1552 on: June 28, 2022, 02:51:17 PM »

What was the survey period for this? It just says ‘June’…and I believe that this wa what the generic ballot was among LV for November as of a week or two ago. Today is a completely different story, however.
To be fair, this was before the Dobbs decision.
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Gracile
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1553 on: June 28, 2022, 02:53:24 PM »

What was the survey period for this? It just says ‘June’…and I believe that this wa what the generic ballot was among LV for November as of a week or two ago. Today is a completely different story, however.

It was June 20-23.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #1554 on: June 28, 2022, 03:08:25 PM »

What was the survey period for this? It just says ‘June’…and I believe that this wa what the generic ballot was among LV for November as of a week or two ago. Today is a completely different story, however.

It was June 20-23.
So this was conducted before the single biggest political development of the year (most likely). Kinda makes it out of date.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #1555 on: June 28, 2022, 03:10:19 PM »

>enter discussion of possible Dobbs bump for Democrats on GCB
>post good GCB poll for Rs
>partisan R pollster
>conducted before Dobbs
>exact same GCB spread as their poll from two months ago even though Biden's approval dropped by 10 points since then
>refuse to elaborate
>leave
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1556 on: June 28, 2022, 04:59:56 PM »



Even with Dobbs, I wonder if PA-12 could be closer than expected just because of the people who vote for Republican Mike Doyle and think they're voting for the retiring incumbent.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1557 on: June 28, 2022, 06:14:42 PM »



Even with Dobbs, I wonder if PA-12 could be closer than expected just because of the people who vote for Republican Mike Doyle and think they're voting for the retiring incumbent.
Not to mention the Democrat is an AOC/Omar type leftist.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1558 on: June 28, 2022, 09:47:48 PM »



Looks like Democrats have the weatherman winning for this Illinois district.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1559 on: June 29, 2022, 12:42:45 AM »
« Edited: June 29, 2022, 02:36:17 AM by MT Treasurer »

>exact same GCB spread as their poll from two months ago even though Biden's approval dropped by 10 points since then

What even is this supposed to mean? There’s no reason for these two (GCB margin & Biden approval) to move in unison given how extremely inflexible the Democratic base is.

You can think that Biden is doing an even worse job than before without supporting Republicans as an (and the only) alternative. At some point, there’s going to be a ceiling for Republicans which can’t be inferred from the Biden approval/disapproval spread.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1560 on: June 29, 2022, 08:45:57 AM »

>exact same GCB spread as their poll from two months ago even though Biden's approval dropped by 10 points since then

What even is this supposed to mean? There’s no reason for these two (GCB margin & Biden approval) to move in unison given how extremely inflexible the Democratic base is.

You can think that Biden is doing an even worse job than before without supporting Republicans as an (and the only) alternative. At some point, there’s going to be a ceiling for Republicans which can’t be inferred from the Biden approval/disapproval spread.
.
The Rs are losing in MI, WI and PA and NV anyways despite Biden Approvals and Trump had the same Approvals the Rs are the only ones that think it's not solidified we lead in NV, MI, WI and PA whether Biden is at 50 or 42%
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1561 on: June 29, 2022, 09:54:43 AM »

Wonky result from YouGov/Economist - their GCB remains at R+5 for a second week, but Ds have a 2pt advantage on both the questions of "what is your preferred senate/house outcome this year" ....

Also genuine question - is this thing weighted between age groups? Their sample contains only 150 people who are <44 years old but 620+ people who are >44 lol

(also makes crosstabs essentially useless for many categories including <44, blacks, hispanics, etc.)

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/uhxw71f4tf/econTabReport.pdf
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kwabbit
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« Reply #1562 on: June 29, 2022, 10:13:37 AM »

Wonky result from YouGov/Economist - their GCB remains at R+5 for a second week, but Ds have a 2pt advantage on both the questions of "what is your preferred senate/house outcome this year" ....

Also genuine question - is this thing weighted between age groups? Their sample contains only 150 people who are <44 years old but 620+ people who are >44 lol

(also makes crosstabs essentially useless for many categories including <44, blacks, hispanics, etc.)

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/uhxw71f4tf/econTabReport.pdf

Yes it is weighted. It is a professionally done poll.

The GCB is moving a few points to the Dems at the moment, possibly as a result of Dobbs. Given that polls are random sampling, a zero week to week change in some polls is to be expected, along with the movement to the Dems in some of the other polls.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1563 on: June 29, 2022, 10:25:14 AM »

Wonky result from YouGov/Economist - their GCB remains at R+5 for a second week, but Ds have a 2pt advantage on both the questions of "what is your preferred senate/house outcome this year" ....

Also genuine question - is this thing weighted between age groups? Their sample contains only 150 people who are <44 years old but 620+ people who are >44 lol

(also makes crosstabs essentially useless for many categories including <44, blacks, hispanics, etc.)

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/uhxw71f4tf/econTabReport.pdf

Yes it is weighted. It is a professionally done poll.

The GCB is moving a few points to the Dems at the moment, possibly as a result of Dobbs. Given that polls are random sampling, a zero week to week change in some polls is to be expected, along with the movement to the Dems in some of the other polls.

also of note, the approval for SCOTUS overturning roe in this poll is 43/50, way closer than any other poll I've seen.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1564 on: June 29, 2022, 10:30:25 AM »
« Edited: June 29, 2022, 10:39:25 AM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

Wonky result from YouGov/Economist - their GCB remains at R+5 for a second week, but Ds have a 2pt advantage on both the questions of "what is your preferred senate/house outcome this year" ....

Also genuine question - is this thing weighted between age groups? Their sample contains only 150 people who are <44 years old but 620+ people who are >44 lol

(also makes crosstabs essentially useless for many categories including <44, blacks, hispanics, etc.)

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/uhxw71f4tf/econTabReport.pdf

Yes it is weighted. It is a professionally done poll.

The GCB is moving a few points to the Dems at the moment, possibly as a result of Dobbs. Given that polls are random sampling, a zero week to week change in some polls is to be expected, along with the movement to the Dems in some of the other polls.

The Rs we're losing in WI, PA, MI and NV and CO before Dobbs, the GCB moving a couple of pts the Insurrectionists commission is damaging the Rs anyways, users think Ds have to win Red states to get to 270, and think 303 blue wall states are Red, lol  Ra only won them in 1 PE in 2016 since 1988 Gore and Kerry lost CO, VA and NV not MI, WI and PA
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1565 on: June 29, 2022, 02:31:06 PM »



Any guesses?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1566 on: June 29, 2022, 02:46:47 PM »



Any guesses?

I would guess Ds taking the senate/ adding seats?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #1567 on: June 29, 2022, 03:13:19 PM »

The Rs deserve to lose the used the Filibuster to block Biden Agenda
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1568 on: June 29, 2022, 03:17:12 PM »



Any guesses?

I would guess Ds taking the senate/ adding seats?

Or Democrats projected to suffer a wipeout bigger than 2010?
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Matty
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« Reply #1569 on: June 29, 2022, 03:26:34 PM »



Any guesses?

I would guess Ds taking the senate/ adding seats?

Or Democrats projected to suffer a wipeout bigger than 2010?

Depends on how the model weights potus approvals
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #1570 on: June 30, 2022, 12:08:33 PM »
« Edited: June 30, 2022, 12:14:18 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

It won't matter in Approvals Trump netted seats in 2018/2020 on the same Approvals as Biden as I keep saying this why because Trump got 75M votes and D's got 80M it's based on Turnout not Approvals and Matty doesn't realize Rs are behind in all the swing states 2010 was a different animal it was 10% unemployment and 95M votes

The models on Twitter shows a 230R H and 52/48D S and 26/24 Govs with Crist beating DeSantis but the Election is after Labor Day not after 4th of July anyways, Rs think Approvals are gonna save them and they are losing in every  blue wall state in S

Believe me I would just make an R nut map if I believe the Rs are gonna win but they're not winning Ryan and Crist are ahead and Demings and Beto and Beasley are down 5 pts MOE is 5/6 pts but I can't update my prediction on EDay and I don't want the Rs to win anyway
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #1571 on: June 30, 2022, 01:26:45 PM »

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/ipsos-core-political-presidential-approval-tracker-06232022

IPSOS Tracking has R Approvals at 7% that's not gonna bite D anyways


For Matty and all R users the reason why Biden Approvals are 36% is because Republican not D's and Indies have Biden at 36, Rs approvals of Biden is 7% so to say the Rs are gonna absolutely sweep everything if disingenuous it's the Rs not Ds holding down Biden Approvals that's why we lead in all the swing states for the record

 Biden isn't at 36% he's at 44% like Trump was in 2018/2020
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #1572 on: June 30, 2022, 05:12:08 PM »



Any guesses?

I would guess Ds taking the senate/ adding seats?

Or Democrats projected to suffer a wipeout bigger than 2010?

Depends on how the model weights potus approvals

Matty did it again associating Biden Approvals, D's again lead in all swing states, ARF🤩🤩🤩🤩
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Gracile
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1573 on: July 01, 2022, 09:35:33 AM »

Emerson GCB:

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/national-poll-biden-with-higher-approval-than-us-congress-trump-leads-gop-nomination-contest/

Republicans 46%
Democrats 43%

1271 registered voters, 2.7%
6/28-6/29
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SnowLabrador
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1574 on: July 01, 2022, 09:50:46 AM »

Well, that sucks. The one good thing that could have come out of overturning Roe v. Wade doesn't seem to be materializing.
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