2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[2016]

Another great recruitment from the Republican Party!

https://twitter.com/ehananoki/status/1534904409339076608?s=20&t=etP5z8T5yqoR...

Curious that you mentioned Paladino and not Langworthy, who is the NY GOP State Party Chair and is the Odds-On Favourite to be nominated.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ousted-centrist-rep-kurt-schrader-182605265.html

The red wave begins in Oregon – Oregon’s 5th district,” he told KATU on Thursday. “That’s unfortunate.”

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee have both pledged their full support for McLeod-Skinner, but Schrader has yet to officially endorse her.

Schrader also revealed in the interview that there is a “significant chance” he will endorse independent centrist Betsy Johnson’s gubernatorial campaign, rather than backing Democratic nominee Tina Kotek, the former speaker of the state’s House of Representatives.

“I think people are exhausted with the extreme, far-right Trumpites. I think they’re very concerned about the socialist drift on the Democrat left,” Schrader said. “So that opens up the middle.”

[Gracile]

https://rollcall.com/2022/06/14/dccc-designates-four-more-members-for-special-protection/

The DCCC has added the incumbents in MD-06, NH-02, NM-03, and IN-01 to their list of Frontline Democrats.

They have also added candidates in a number of seats to their Red to Blue program which identifies possible Republican-held and open seats as targets:

-Jevin Hodge (AZ-01, Schweikert)
-Annette Taddeo (FL-27, Taddeo)
-Don Davis (NC-01, OPEN)
-Wiley Nickel (NC-13, OPEN)
-Jeff Jackson (NC-14, OPEN)
-Bridget Fleming (NY-01, OPEN)
-Francis Conole (NY-22, OPEN)
-Val Hoyle (OR-04, OPEN)
-Jamie McLeod Skinner (OR-05, OPEN)
-Andrea Salinas (OR-06, New Seat)
-Chris Deluzio (PA-17, OPEN)

[Person Man]

Sabato/Kondik update their House Ratings after the June 7th Primaries


Republican 214
Democrat 193
Toss Up 28

It substantiates my thinking that Republicans had a "good year" if they win 20 seats and a landslide if they win 30 or more(all the tossups plus some safer Democratic ones). If they win more than 30, I think Biden should probably retire. It would mean the brand has gotten toxic under him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sabato/Kondik update their House Ratings after the June 7th Primaries


Republican 214
Democrat 193
Toss Up 28

It substantiates my thinking that Republicans had a "good year" if they win 20 seats and a landslide if they win 30 or more(all the tossups plus some safer Democratic ones). If they win more than 30, I think Biden should probably retire. It would mean the brand has gotten toxic under him.

Rs are not winning 20 seats and Biden isn't at 35% Approval he is closer to 50 than 40 Whitmer is leading by 23 pts if Biden was so low Whitner wouldn't be up by 23 You Gov has him at 44/49 and Trump at 40/54 not QU 35/59

It's closer to 10 not 20 but it's still possible D's can hold the Trifecta
The Election is Nov not now

The same QU that had Biden ahead by 14 pts against Trump

[wbrocks67]

80% total? Talk about incredibly unhelpful and not useful.

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1537787981515341826

[Gracile]

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-june-22-2022/

Sabato's Crystal Ball made three rating changes today, all in favor of Republicans:

AK-AL Special- Likely R > Safe R
CA-45 (Steel)- Toss-up > Lean R
VA-10 (Wexton)- Safe D > Likely D

[2016]

@gracile


Republicans 215
Democrats 193
Toss Up 27

Their Main House Guru Kyle Kondik though hinted that they might move VA-2 (Luria vs Higgans) to Leans Republican soon.

[wesmoorenerd]

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-june-22-2022/

Sabato's Crystal Ball made three rating changes today, all in favor of Republicans:

AK-AL Special- Likely R > Safe R
CA-45 (Steel)- Toss-up > Lean R
VA-10 (Wexton)- Safe D > Likely D

The Alaska and CA-45 moves are reasonable. The VA-10 move is laughable.

[wbrocks67]

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-june-22-2022/

Sabato's Crystal Ball made three rating changes today, all in favor of Republicans:

AK-AL Special- Likely R > Safe R
CA-45 (Steel)- Toss-up > Lean R
VA-10 (Wexton)- Safe D > Likely D

The Alaska and CA-45 moves are reasonable. The VA-10 move is laughable.

Real "NJ -> Leans D" 2018 vibes

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-june-22-2022/

Sabato's Crystal Ball made three rating changes today, all in favor of Republicans:

AK-AL Special- Likely R > Safe R
CA-45 (Steel)- Toss-up > Lean R
VA-10 (Wexton)- Safe D > Likely D

The Alaska and CA-45 moves are reasonable. The VA-10 move is laughable.

Real "NJ -> Leans D" 2018 vibes

Likely D isn't too unreasonable given the likely nature of the year and the fact Youngkin came close in the district. Def on the more solid end of it though so imo there wasn't really a need to move it, but the district did get slightly redder from redistricting and Wexton "only" won by 13 in 2020.

It's no different to how in 2020 many forecasters had states such as Kansas as Likely Trump even though statistically they were probably safe.

[wesmoorenerd]

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-june-22-2022/

Sabato's Crystal Ball made three rating changes today, all in favor of Republicans:

AK-AL Special- Likely R > Safe R
CA-45 (Steel)- Toss-up > Lean R
VA-10 (Wexton)- Safe D > Likely D

The Alaska and CA-45 moves are reasonable. The VA-10 move is laughable.

Real "NJ -> Leans D" 2018 vibes

Likely D isn't too unreasonable given the likely nature of the year and the fact Youngkin came close in the district. Def on the more solid end of it though so imo there wasn't really a need to move it, but the district did get slightly redder from redistricting and Wexton "only" won by 13 in 2020.

It's no different to how in 2020 many forecasters had states such as Kansas as Likely Trump even though statistically they were probably safe.

Put that another way: Youngkin wasn't able to win this district despite winning a state that's basically safely blue at this point. I'm reminded of VA-05, a district that Dems tried to contest a few times last decade even though Corey freaking Stewart won it. Tim Kaine couldn't break through there, and neither could Cockburn or Webb. Youngkin couldn't break through in VA-10, and Cao won't be able to either.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-june-22-2022/

Sabato's Crystal Ball made three rating changes today, all in favor of Republicans:

AK-AL Special- Likely R > Safe R
CA-45 (Steel)- Toss-up > Lean R
VA-10 (Wexton)- Safe D > Likely D

The Alaska and CA-45 moves are reasonable. The VA-10 move is laughable.

Real "NJ -> Leans D" 2018 vibes

Likely D isn't too unreasonable given the likely nature of the year and the fact Youngkin came close in the district. Def on the more solid end of it though so imo there wasn't really a need to move it, but the district did get slightly redder from redistricting and Wexton "only" won by 13 in 2020.

It's no different to how in 2020 many forecasters had states such as Kansas as Likely Trump even though statistically they were probably safe.

Put that another way: Youngkin wasn't able to win this district despite winning a state that's basically safely blue at this point. I'm reminded of VA-05, a district that Dems tried to contest a few times last decade even though Corey freaking Stewart won it. Tim Kaine couldn't break through there, and neither could Cockburn or Webb. Youngkin couldn't break through in VA-10, and Cao won't be able to either.

Most likely not, but theoretically, the votes are there for Cao to win whereas trying to win say VA-08 would be literally impossible.

Also you're assuming Younkin is the maximum perfomance by a R in VA these days. Most likely is pretty close to it but surely not the true max.

[Politician]

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-june-22-2022/

Sabato's Crystal Ball made three rating changes today, all in favor of Republicans:

AK-AL Special- Likely R > Safe R
CA-45 (Steel)- Toss-up > Lean R
VA-10 (Wexton)- Safe D > Likely D

The Alaska and CA-45 moves are reasonable. The VA-10 move is laughable.

Real "NJ -> Leans D" 2018 vibes

Real ironic coming from the guy who believed Democrats were winning in Trump +double digit seats in 2020!

[S019]

The year will be 2040 and Republicans will still be obsessed with winning VA-10, it’s quite hilarious. Even if they somehow win it this year, it’d be an obvious rental and thus not a particularly good source of resources.

[xavier110]

https://rollcall.com/2022/06/14/dccc-designates-four-more-members-for-special-protection/

The DCCC has added the incumbents in MD-06, NH-02, NM-03, and IN-01 to their list of Frontline Democrats.

They have also added candidates in a number of seats to their Red to Blue program which identifies possible Republican-held and open seats as targets:

-Jevin Hodge (AZ-01, Schweikert)
-Annette Taddeo (FL-27, Taddeo)
-Don Davis (NC-01, OPEN)
-Wiley Nickel (NC-13, OPEN)
-Jeff Jackson (NC-14, OPEN)
-Bridget Fleming (NY-01, OPEN)
-Francis Conole (NY-22, OPEN)
-Val Hoyle (OR-04, OPEN)
-Jamie McLeod Skinner (OR-05, OPEN)
-Andrea Salinas (OR-06, New Seat)
-Chris Deluzio (PA-17, OPEN)

Jevin Hodge SUCKS. Don’t know if I could stomach voting for him, and I hope he loses the primary.

[wesmoorenerd]

https://rollcall.com/2022/06/14/dccc-designates-four-more-members-for-special-protection/

The DCCC has added the incumbents in MD-06, NH-02, NM-03, and IN-01 to their list of Frontline Democrats.

They have also added candidates in a number of seats to their Red to Blue program which identifies possible Republican-held and open seats as targets:

-Jevin Hodge (AZ-01, Schweikert)
-Annette Taddeo (FL-27, Taddeo)
-Don Davis (NC-01, OPEN)
-Wiley Nickel (NC-13, OPEN)
-Jeff Jackson (NC-14, OPEN)
-Bridget Fleming (NY-01, OPEN)
-Francis Conole (NY-22, OPEN)
-Val Hoyle (OR-04, OPEN)
-Jamie McLeod Skinner (OR-05, OPEN)
-Andrea Salinas (OR-06, New Seat)
-Chris Deluzio (PA-17, OPEN)

Jevin Hodge SUCKS. Don’t know if I could stomach voting for him, and I hope he loses the primary.

He didn't seem like a particularly impressive addition. What's so bad about him?

[Brittain33]

Marist finds D+7 after Dobbs.

https://www.npr.org/2022/06/27/1107733632/poll-majorities-oppose-supreme-courts-abortion-ruling-and-worry-about-other-righ

It seems like the argument that “everybody already knows how they feel about abortion, nothing will change, red tsunami incoming” doesn’t work well when the legal status of abortion changes dramatically and becomes illegal in half of the country.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist finds D+7 after Dobbs.

https://www.npr.org/2022/06/27/1107733632/poll-majorities-oppose-supreme-courts-abortion-ruling-and-worry-about-other-righ

It seems like the argument that “everybody already knows how they feel about abortion, nothing will change, red tsunami incoming” doesn’t work well when the legal status of abortion changes dramatically and becomes illegal in half of the country.

To recap:

In April (pre-Dobbs decision leak) they had Republicans leading 47-44.  In May (post leak) they had Democrats up 47-42.  This month it's 48-41 D.

Prior to April, they had not done a poll since November so it's hard to compare trends before that (i.e. it's possible April was an outlier).

Survey data

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a VBM anyways H and S races and Gov races weren't called immediately if it was close it came down to Provisional ballots anyways it can take hrs or days to count all the ballots, but this is excitthat D's are now AHEAD

Back2Donating again, this is like 2012 right after Akin comment

I expect Beasley, Demings and Crist to get a second chance Ryan was already leading Vance he is as weak as Mandel in 2012

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We know this is it, if Rs do poorly, in this Election they are gonna lose everything, DC and PR statehood and possibly two more SCOTUS picks in Child's and Kruger, the LGBT said if Schumer sends Biden a Crt packing bill he won't veto it, they will ensure that

The Rs only started to recover after Voting Rights was blocked and the Ukraine war had high gas prices, now they are gonna lose again

[wbrocks67]

The important # in the Marist poll is that Indies +4 on the GCB. If Democrats want a fighting chance this fall, they need to do well with Indies.

[wesmoorenerd]

Just one data point, of course, but obviously a good one for Dems. FiveThirtyEight GCB average is below R+2 for the first time since early February.

[wbrocks67]

Politico/Morning Consult from June 24-25 raises to D+3, from even last week.

Also of note, the suburban sample is nearly 1,000 people, and it's D+7

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/06/27123300/2206184_crosstabs_POLITICO_ROE_DECISION_RV_RVs_v1.pdf

[ajc0918]

Only two polls but both show a decent shift toward Dems. That coupled with poor recruitment and gaffes could be some positive momentum for Dems.