2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Devils30]

The Ds special election performance with college voters (look at Ithaca, Rochester MN, Lincoln) is a wildcard for 2022. If they improve on Biden in these types of places it will likely limit the losses, oddly polling kind of missing these in the specials.

OTOH, a Youngkin style WWC showing where Dems get 25% of this group should also not be ruled out and could give Johnson a 5-6% win in WI.

[Devils30]

Zooming out to see the bigger picture-

538 GCB average

June 19: R+2.3
July 19: R+1.7
August 19: D+0.5
September 19: D+1.4
October 19: D+0.3

A lot of hay has been made of GOP momentum, but we're... essentially where we were two months ago, and in the same place we've been for three months now (Tied-D+1-ish)

The 538 GCB is the same it was on the night Pat Ryan won NY-19, D+0.3

[Devils30]

Zooming out to see the bigger picture-

538 GCB average

June 19: R+2.3
July 19: R+1.7
August 19: D+0.5
September 19: D+1.4
October 19: D+0.3

A lot of hay has been made of GOP momentum, but we're... essentially where we were two months ago, and in the same place we've been for three months now (Tied-D+1-ish)

I think a lot of people set their expectations too high or misunderstood what a neutral environment might look like. A lot of people were acting like we're in a 2012/2018 style environment, but the people who think we've reverted to a 2010/1994 style environment are also wrong.

It's a 2016/2020 style environment. That means Republicans win the House, probably not more than 20-25 seats. Democrats likely keep the Senate, but they could still lose it if a lot of races are close.

A 2016/2020 style environment would average out to like D+1 though, (which is where the average is pointing us), and that would mean a probably pretty close House result, wouldn't it? (I feel like Ds need to win by 2 to have a chance)

Somewhere between D+2 and D+3 is the likely break-even point.  If it gets in that vicinity, it depends on which districts each party overperforms in.

Yeah on 2020 Pres the median district VA-02 which is Biden +2.1, and 538 has the median seat with a PVI around R+2.3 iiirc.

The only case where this wouldn't be true is if Dems experience the largest turnout dropoff in safe D cities like NY and CA hence wasting far fewer votes in those districts.

There will almost certainly be an R bias but a lot of Dems in safe areas seem among the most likely to defect. A lot of people in NYC have tired of the homeless people attacking.

[Devils30]

CNBC / Hart is good for the GOP. +2 in RV. GCB on 538 will cross back into the red in the next few days it seems.

Will probably today if Monmouth finds an R lead.

They found R+2 in September, D+3 in August among RV.

I actually think Monmouth is likely to be unchanged. They just got an R friendly sample in September, which might not happen again even if there’s some actual movement. I’m thinking R+3 on RV, which might not be enough of a swing to change it.

Monmouth is R+4. Of course Dems will lose if they only win moderates by 6, lose white college by 1 and lose 35-54 by 16 as this poll suggests. It is worth wondering if they’ve lost some white college support since August. A few polls suggest this.

[Devils30]

The coalitions are suited for a natural GOP senate majority, a very tight House and a GOP electoral college edge. Things can change but the 2020s Dem coalition is just ill suited to winning close elections. Of course if a 2025 GOP passes a national abortion ban well get a D+11 2026 election but they might be savvy enough to keep it with the states.

Even the Monmouth poll was only R+13 with whites. The Dems were just winning minorities by only 16. The numbers could be off a bit but this is far more than simply a white backlash like 1994 and 2010.

[Devils30]

The coalitions are suited for a natural GOP senate majority, a very tight House and a GOP electoral college edge. Things can change but the 2020s Dem coalition is just ill suited to winning close elections. Of course if a 2025 GOP passes a national abortion ban well get a D+11 2026 election but they might be savvy enough to keep it with the states.

Even the Monmouth poll was only R+13 with whites. The Dems were just winning minorities by only 16. The numbers could be off a bit but this is far more than simply a white backlash like 1994 and 2010.

Awww change your mind after you insistence Ds would sweep for weeks? Well at least you have come to reason now.

I didn’t insist the Ds would sweep. I thought in late august the House with a 220 or so seat Dem majority and a 51-49 D senate was possible. The latter still is considering these poor GOP candidates in GA AZ PA along with a possible NV polling miss could help Ds.

Monmouth at only 31% college degree also seems quite low. Midterms are usually in the high 30s there. That said, I don’t see how you conclude the House odds are stronger than 10% for Ds.

[Devils30]

Remember when everyone on here clowned me for calling this a 2014 redux back in September?

You are still a clown because the election hasn't happened yet and we won't know how it will turn out until we get results. Polling is not reliable as we've seen.

If I’m a clown, you must be a trapeze artist with all the mental gymnastics you are going through to justify your increasingly delusional takes.

Rs will have 52 seats in the senate and at least 240 house seats and you still will be insisting that Alaska isn’t 100% in yet.

Got a screenshot. We'll see, but polls are all over the place and I think we're in unpredictable territory.

The hilarious part is Alaska is probably going to be among the Dems brightest spots.

[Devils30]

The irony is that anytime there is a D+1 poll or something, no one cares, but suddenly when there is an outlier like R+6, suddenly that's the only poll that matters.

I have to laugh that many of these same people were crapping all over Monmouth for being terrible and now suddenly they are the gold standard(TM) of polling results.

Was Monmouth "the one where the guy said he wouldn't do more polls because he botched the 2021 New Jersey Gubernatorial election?" (which is also the title of my favorite FRIENDS episode). 

Yes. And I'm not saying Monmouth is wrong. But I think it's hypocritical for the many people who have also discounted Monmouth went they've had favorable results for Ds to now suddenly believe them when it finds a good result for the GOP.

There are plenty of results that we continue to get that show we are not in an R+4 or R+6 year. Hell, we just got a poll out of Pennsylvania with a *D+2 GCB*. You're not getting that in a "red wave" year. But at this point, it's just choose what you want to believe.

The GOP is the clear favorite to win the House lets be honest. That said, usually by now in a wave you begin to see polls with challengers pulling away with a clear edge and we really haven't so far. Golden, Wild, Axne would be well behind by now (even with a GOP polling bias) in a 2010 type year and yet they are at worst still in the game.

[Devils30]

The irony is that anytime there is a D+1 poll or something, no one cares, but suddenly when there is an outlier like R+6, suddenly that's the only poll that matters.

I have to laugh that many of these same people were crapping all over Monmouth for being terrible and now suddenly they are the gold standard(TM) of polling results.

Was Monmouth "the one where the guy said he wouldn't do more polls because he botched the 2021 New Jersey Gubernatorial election?" (which is also the title of my favorite FRIENDS episode).  

Yes. And I'm not saying Monmouth is wrong. But I think it's hypocritical for the many people who have also discounted Monmouth went they've had favorable results for Ds to now suddenly believe them when it finds a good result for the GOP.

There are plenty of results that we continue to get that show we are not in an R+4 or R+6 year. Hell, we just got a poll out of Pennsylvania with a *D+2 GCB*. You're not getting that in a "red wave" year. But at this point, it's just choose what you want to believe.

The GOP is the clear favorite to win the House lets be honest. That said, usually by now in a wave you begin to see polls with challengers pulling away with a clear edge and we really haven't so far. Golden, Wild, Axne would be well behind by now (even with a GOP polling bias) in a 2010 type year and yet they are at worst still in the game.

In 2014, there were no Dem incumbents well behind at this point in the House.

There were few Dem incumbents in suspenseful races that year. Zeldin opened a clear late lead in NY-1 but other seats such as WV-3, GA-12, NC-7, UT-4 were double digit Romney seats that everyone knew would flip. IL-12 was a weak Dem incumbent in a R trending seat and I don't recall any IA-1 polls that year but it was clear Braley was flopping weeks out. Apples and oranges comparison to this year as the Dems are not over exposed in red leaning seats.

[Devils30]

This is both 1) looking bleak for Dems and 2) a lot of very low quality polling all over the place- I don't know if Emerson's methodology has ever been sound even when they've been right.

Dems only hope at this stage is the falling gas prices expected over the next 2 weeks and their ad advantage on TV from pre booked reservations for final days of the campaign. They need it to be like the 2000 election where Gore had a great September, Bush surged and pulled away in October only to slip in the final week and make it a virtual tie.

I am curious who the remaining undecideds are at this stage. Dems haven't lost much in the averages but GOP leaners have come home. Oddly it seems like Dems have slipped the most with college whites the past few weeks, will be interesting to see if they can recover the D+10-15 margins here.

[Devils30]

Rassy back down to R+4..the same they had Labor Day.

My brain is pretty much fried...very conflicting signals from the RCP GCB and the VA-2, PA-7 polls. As I have said before, there is a 2000 like feeling where Gore surged in September, Bush in October and then it tightened at the end while state by state polls showed a closer race all along.

[Devils30]

House Majority PAC (D) is cutting back in the Los Angeles market (likely for CA-27) and Tuscon (AZ-06). They're also spending in MI-07 to support Elissa Slotkin, but not in MI-10-

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1583489247985954816

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1583489250254721025

For the 256th time, the Dems are NOT triaging CA-27. The pre-Dobbs primary was literally something like R+0.8 and usually CA gets more Dem for the general.

It is a smart strategy to not spend in this district, or NY-17, OR-6 and even RI-2. If the Dems get to 218 these will be in the list regardless. If they lose the House by 20 seats, who cares.

[Devils30]

Apparently NYT/Siena is going to poll 4-5 CDs. Despite the last poll having a quirky subsample of 85 independent women, they did a great job in 2018 and hoping they provide some clarification.

I would love to see NJ-7, NC-13, VA-2, CA-45, OH-13 of any 5 they could do.

[Devils30]

Pat Ryan's district being moved to Tilt D and Josh Riley's district being moved to toss-up are both kind of absurd. Pat Ryan outperformed incredibly in the special, and now he's an incumbent who just raised $2.3M+ last quarter with now more favorable territory.

Not just that, but Riley is a strong recruit in the new NY-19 who raised twice as much as Molinaro, and Molinaro lost the only favorable territory he actually had in the old NY-19.

Sounds like they're just doing this because of the messy NY state polling.

Special elections aren’t everything. See CA-25 in May 2020.

It was interesting how the same trend was repeated throughout every August special but it is just a different crowd than who votes in November.

[Devils30]

When does the NBC poll come out

NBC has 47-46 D with RV and 48-47 R with LV. Not really any change from prior polls. Gives GOP a big enthusiasm edge though.

[Devils30]

https://www.axios.com/2022/10/24/midterm-elections-cook-sean-patrick-maloney

NY-17 moving to tossup in Cook. This could either be a sign of a wave or the NRCC version of Hillary visits Ohio 7 times and never goes to Wisconsin.

[Devils30]

https://www.axios.com/2022/10/24/midterm-elections-cook-sean-patrick-maloney

NY-17 moving to tossup in Cook. This could either be a sign of a wave or the NRCC version of Hillary visits Ohio 7 times and never goes to Wisconsin.

He moved this race but not Pat Ryan's race? I think the two races are highly correlated; if Maloney is losing, Ryan is also losing.

How do the Dems win NY-18, NY-19 (no reason to think Molinaro should take a district 3% more Dem with Ithaca) and lose NY-17? Could polls be missing some of the Dems margin with college whites?

[Devils30]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/dccc-appears-to-be-bailing-on-malinowski/

Not sure if this means anything. Malinowski is completely self sufficient as a fundraiser and has like 3 million COH.

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1584954542202191873?t=AeCveOKoqUBBCYjcuPd...

Clearly a sign of a D+3 environment.

The primary vote here was literally even and usually gets more blue in the fall. I wonder if some of 2010-2018's polling misses in Sunbelt Latino heavy areas will return even if GOP as I expect wins the Ohio races by 5% more than polls indicate.

[Devils30]

Maybe they're trying to be clever by claiming it's because he's allegedly strong, when they have internals showing him actually losing and in fact Smith doesn't need the money.

no

Malinowski and Smith are both in very expensive media markets are do have plenty of COH. At least one of these races people think is over will go the other way.

[Devils30]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-ca25-3.html

Polls have missed here before...the 25th is the old version of the 27th.

[Devils30]

VA-10 gets moved right but KS-03 gets moved left? Blue district Democrats are struggling but NC-01 is moved to the left? A lot of this doesn't really make sense.

So magically the Dems are gaining where they did well this summer (KS-3, Alaska) and not being downgraded in NY-19 but the bottom is falling out in NY-17, Oregon and educated districts like Levin in CA? Polling firms are clearly having issues again and this time they might be missing everyone all around.

[Devils30]

VA-10 gets moved right but KS-03 gets moved left? Blue district Democrats are struggling but NC-01 is moved to the left? A lot of this doesn't really make sense.

So magically the Dems are gaining where they did well this summer (KS-3, Alaska) and not being downgraded in NY-19 but the bottom is falling out in NY-17, Oregon and educated districts like Levin in CA? Polling firms are clearly having issues again and this time they might be missing everyone all around.

Yeah, this is what I don't get. If the bottom was falling out in bluer areas, then NY-19 should've been downgraded, and I wouldn't expect a suburban district like KS-3 to get upgraded bluer, while a generally more bluer area (like CA-49) gets downgraded lower.

Kind of like how I feel about CT. Clearly the bottom is not falling out for Lamont or Blumenthal, most polls have them up by double digits. But somehow the bottom is falling out for.... Hayes in CT-05? An incumbent who hasn't really had any issues before? It just doesn't make sense to me.

Congressional races are still somewhat local and the campaigning matters. Kansas looks good for the Democrats this year and Davids is a good campaigner.

I think Levin is being downgraded in part because early vote data looks good for the GOP in OC and SD county.

I mean, if we're going by the early vote data then Christy Smith should be Lean D, lol. (That's the only thing that makes me question the whole "triaging" thing - it's still early but it's D+13 in the early vote so far, the biggest out of all the competitive CA races)

I don't think Garcia vs. Smith was necessarily triaged either. Money probably makes less of a difference in that House race among all possible competitive races. The TV market is extremely expensive and the candidates are running against each other for the third time. The Dems were paying a lot of money for comparatively little viewership by people who already have more of a hardened opinion of the candidates. They would get more bang for their buck defending Axne, Craig, Luria and all of the non major-metro incumbents who would make up a possible Democratic majority. Probably the same reason that Malinowski lost some money, given how expensive the NYC market is.

https://twitter.com/vanceulrich/status/1585023835598118912?s=46&t=8UDBrtuE1yQSHe1s0CfJKw

Triage my ass

[Devils30]

I’m referring to the NYT article today saying Rs are winning CA-27

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1585581558966132738?s=19

Good poll for Rs...yet I don't know if 21% of blacks will be voting red. Of course any scenario with 21% blacks and 40% Hispanics going R is going to be a GOP victory.