Why are NC non-black rural areas so democratic in2020

[SaneDemocrat]

Places in Wester North Carolina and the center of the state are way more democratic than one would think.

[kwabbit]

Still some residual strength from when Democrats were stronger in that region. The presence of a city in Asheville also aids Dems. I suspect that some of the strength in Appalachia is that Dems still fight for votes in North Carolina. Because when you go one county over into Tennessee, where Democrats have long given up, Republicans are winning these rural Appalachian counties by 50 points instead of 20.

Democratic strength in western NC is part of why NC has a nearly static trend. Democrats have a long way to fall in much of rural/exurban NC, counteracting the growth of Charlotte and the Research Triangle.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Is it all ancestral Dem strength or is it Vermont/Rocky Mountain type liberals who move for the scenery? I know Asheville has it and it would make sense if other parts of western NC did as well.

[Horus]

Is it all ancestral Dem strength or is it Vermont/Rocky Mountain type liberals who move for the scenery? I know Asheville has it and it would make sense if other parts of western NC did as well.

fwiw I have cousins from Vermont who recently moved to the area south of Asheville. I guess that's not an uncommon retirement spot for liberal northeasterners.

[Gracile]

Western NC is also a popular retiree destination (Henderson County particularly, which had a 9% swing toward Biden), so it might fit in with a nationwide movement of senior citizens toward Biden.

[forsythvoter]

Isn't there also a decent sized tourism presence in Western NC? I actually remember going skiing in NC not too far from Boone when I was younger. Wonder if that type of industry in the area attracts a more left-leaning workforce.

[DINGO Joe]

Just look at a map with college education numbers.  WNC has numerous counties with relatively high education level, especially for Appalachia.  Not Colorado high but it may get there one day. 

[SaneDemocrat]

Yeah it’s not just seemingly WAY less southern than SC or TN

[DINGO Joe]

Places in Wester North Carolina and the center of the state are way more democratic than one would think.

I'm curious what the "center of the state" is more Dem than you would expect though?

[ottermax]

In Western NC could there have been any pushback against Madison Cawthorn? He seems to have underperformed a bit.

[Fascism Must Be Defeated]

I'm from Boone, AMA

Cawthorn underperformed because he was crazy young guy in a district which is has a big D base, even if it isn't winnable for Democrats.

Western NC's politics are interesting. Traditionally, the Democratic area of strength in WNC is in Central Western NC (Madison, Haywood, Yancey, Jackson, Swain, and Buncombe, which was urban but wasn't bohemian until more recently), as well as a traditional D node in Ashe/Alleghany and to a lesser extent Watauga. You can see this pretty clearly in the 1992 Gubernatorial Map.

The latter node has withered away, though you can still see vague traces. But the former actually still has some legs, reinforced by the proximity to Asheville as well as several small education institutions and ASU/Western Carolina.

Interesting, although a little beside the point of the usual discussion--Madison County NC has an interesting political history. It used to be a unionist Republican county in the same way as Avery or Mitchell, but flipped in the 1950s to Democrats, thanks to the aggressive efforts by what would become the Ponder Machine. A rural Southern county flipping to the Democrats in the 1950s is not what you'd expect, but that's what happened in Madison County!

[SaneDemocrat]

I'm from Boone, AMA

Cawthorn was a underperformed because he was crazy young guy in a district which is has a big D base, even if it isn't winnable for Democrats.

Western NC's politics are interesting. Traditionally, the Democratic area of strength in WNC is in Central Western NC (Madison, Haywood, Yancey, Jackson, Swain, and Buncombe, which was urban but wasn't bohemian until more recently), as well as a traditional D node in Ashe/Alleghany and to a lesser extent Watauga. You can see this pretty clearly in the 1992 Gubernatorial Map.

The latter node has withered away, though you can still see vague traces. But the former actually still has some legs, reinforced by the proximity to Asheville as well as several small education institutions and ASU/Western Carolina.

Interesting, although a little beside the point of the usual discussion--Madison County NC has an interesting political history. It used to be a unionist Republican county in the same way as Avery or Mitchell, but flipped in the 1950s to Democrats, thanks to the aggressive efforts by what would become the Ponder Machine. A rural Southern county flipping to the Democrats in the 1950s is not what you'd expect, but that's what happened in Madison County!

Madison county is a huge outlier because it has a good deal of evangelicals.

[Wormless Gourd]

Basically what Sol said.
There's a mild GOP underperfomance with WNC in western NC in and around Buncombe county especially.
It's not all educated transplants/resorty areas since the GOP pretty consistently stay under 70% or barely pass 65% in 95% white, quite poor and <15% college educated precincts. Dems have a very sturdy floor. A demographically similar area in the central part of the state(Randolph county, for instance) would be in the low to mid 80s.
There's a mix of residual support to the Dem brand and indifference(as opposed to active anger/disappointment) by many others. I'd also add there's a "secular" factor where have where fewer culture war issues take precedent and Dems win out with some unchurched WNC, especially within Buncombe county.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I find the difference between the major Appalachian tourism centers of Western North Carolina and East Tennessee really interesting because they are so close to one another.  At the end of the day, I think a lot of it comes down to how they market themselves.  To use a more familiar analogy, Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge is Myrtle Beach, while Asheville is Charleston.

[Fascism Must Be Defeated]

I'm from Boone, AMA

Cawthorn was a underperformed because he was crazy young guy in a district which is has a big D base, even if it isn't winnable for Democrats.

Western NC's politics are interesting. Traditionally, the Democratic area of strength in WNC is in Central Western NC (Madison, Haywood, Yancey, Jackson, Swain, and Buncombe, which was urban but wasn't bohemian until more recently), as well as a traditional D node in Ashe/Alleghany and to a lesser extent Watauga. You can see this pretty clearly in the 1992 Gubernatorial Map.

The latter node has withered away, though you can still see vague traces. But the former actually still has some legs, reinforced by the proximity to Asheville as well as several small education institutions and ASU/Western Carolina.

Interesting, although a little beside the point of the usual discussion--Madison County NC has an interesting political history. It used to be a unionist Republican county in the same way as Avery or Mitchell, but flipped in the 1950s to Democrats, thanks to the aggressive efforts by what would become the Ponder Machine. A rural Southern county flipping to the Democrats in the 1950s is not what you'd expect, but that's what happened in Madison County!

Madison county is a huge outlier because it has a good deal of evangelicals.

Idk what you mean--there are a lot of evangelicals everywhere in Western NC, and that wouldn't much suggest a more Democrat voting pattern as you see in Madison.

[Fascism Must Be Defeated]

I find the difference between the major Appalachian tourism centers of Western North Carolina and East Tennessee really interesting because they are so close to one another.  At the end of the day, I think a lot of it comes down to how they market themselves.  To use a more familiar analogy, Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge is Myrtle Beach, while Asheville is Charleston.

I don't know about that. Asheville definitely caters to an affluent crowd, but it's also a magnet for 'alternative' people in a way which Charleston isn't.

[Gracile]

Sol, how sustainable do you see the Democratic swings in Henderson County?

[Fascism Must Be Defeated]

Sol, how sustainable do you see the Democratic swings in Henderson County?

Moderately, I guess?

Henderson is the most suburban county in Western NC, so I think a lot of it depends on your general theory of how those areas will vote in the future. If things stay as they are those people are going to be sticking with the Dems.

I suspect much of that shift though is from retirees, who are a big population in Hendersonville. I doubt those voters are staying with Democrats in the long term.

Worth watching are some of the shifts in Southern Buncombe--Democrats appear to have won Biltmore Forest for the first time in ages, for example.

[Fascism Must Be Defeated]

Places in Wester North Carolina and the center of the state are way more democratic than one would think.

Because of Yankee transplants in those areas. Native North Carolineans tend to vote Republican.

not necessarily accurate

[Non Swing Voter]

Anecdotal but everyone I know from NC (not transplants) is less conservative than white people from the Deep South (Alabama, Georgia, etc.).  It was never really considered the Deep South culturally.  Definitely much more conservative than the Northeast or even a lot of Virginia but I wouldn't expect Republicans to win by the ridiculous margins they do in rural white areas of MS/AL/GA. 

This is why I think NC will remain a 50/50 state for a long time.  The GOP still has room for growth among rural whites there.  They are much more maxed out in places like Georgia.  That's why I think Georgia will just go the way of Virginia.  The only growth will be for Democrats.

[DINGO Joe]

Cawthorn's district actually has the highest % of people 65 and over of any district outside of Florida, however it attracts a higher income higher educated retiree than other places, Buncombe is over 40% and Henderson, Jackson and Transylvania are over 30% college educated.

Transylvania actually has a small college noted for it's classical music program and has a summer series of concerts that attract up to 50,000 attendees. 

The very white Uber Republican county in the center of the State, Randolph has a college ed rate of 15% which really stands out as it is surrounded on most sides by far more educated, and diverse counties.

[Fascism Must Be Defeated]

Cawthorn's district actually has the highest % of people 65 and over of any district outside of Florida, however it attracts a higher income higher educated retiree than other places, Buncombe is over 40% and Henderson, Jackson and Transylvania are over 30% college educated.

Transylvania actually has a small college noted for it's classical music program and has a summer series of concerts that attract up to 50,000 attendees. 

The very white Uber Republican county in the center of the State, Randolph has a college ed rate of 15% which really stands out as it is surrounded on most sides by far more educated, and diverse counties.

The quintessential WNC retiree is an affluent Floridian who might still live in Land O' Lakes or Boca Raton in the wintertime. A decent number of these folks are also Yankees who moved to Florida at some other point; allegedly they're called half-backs though I've never heard anyone in real life use that term.

Randolph is very Republican, though it's not thaat much more so than say, Davidson. The gap there is more explained IMO by Black population. Both are rural/exurban counties, but Davidson has Lexington and Thomasville, which have large Black communities. On the other hand, Asheboro has a very small Black community (but a large yet mostly nonvoting Latino community too).

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

GA is becoming more racially diverse along with VA than the other Southern states. TX and FL are different due to Conservative Latinos. It's obvious that AA like Atlanta more than Charlotte, now

[Pericles]

Western NC is also a popular retiree destination (Henderson County particularly, which had a 9% swing toward Biden), so it might fit in with a nationwide movement of senior citizens toward Biden.

Did that end up happening though, or was it just a mirage from the polling? Like how the polling said there would be a big swing to Biden among non college-educated whites, even when comparing to the 22016 polling rather than results, but that didn't happen.

[Fascism Must Be Defeated]

It seems like it happened to some extent but not to the degree expected, and a lot depended on the kind of retiree--i.e. NC ones are wealthier than Florida ones.

This swing map in WNC maps pretty closely to retirees.