Why didn’t the suburbs revolt against previous trump-like figures?

[Matty]

Trump was absolutely not the first politician who engaged in the rhetoric or platform that he did.

There were plenty of Trump-like figures (or even worse) in house and senate elections well into 21st century who did much better than trump in suburban areas.

2010 saw many get elected and re-elected, as did 2012 and 2014.

Is the left perhaps doing what Shakespeare once warned about? “There are daggers in men’s smiles”

Are there bad apples in the suburbs?

Maybe progressive activists need to prepare for the very real possibility that the suburbs simply despised trump’s conduct, but that the suburbs still contain many voters who are totally opposite of the left on the culture war, economics, and even basic things like inclusivity.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The suburbs of the 2000s in many cases were still pretty different than the suburbs of today. For example Trump probably wins the 2004 version of Gwinnett by double digits, wins that Orange County as well.


2010 and 2014 were midterm backlashes against Obama so those are misleading and in 2012 Senate Republicans underperformed Romney across the board.

[Hope For A New Era]

OSR's mostly got it, but it might be good to add:

- Representatives and Senators are not as high-profile as Presidents, maybe it's different when the Trumpist is representing the whole country to the world

- Maybe those people were elected to Congress in spite of, not because of, their views and personalities - just swept into office on anti-Obama waves - and Trump has simply hit the limit of suburban tolerance for it.

- Suburbs have been moving toward Democrats since at least 2004. Trump seems to have accelerated all #trends across the board, so it's not surprising to see the suburbs take a big leftward jump.

[forsythvoter]

The party's emphasis on the issues have changed quite a bit in the last 20 years. I remember (growing up in a very R family and area) Republicans were perceived as the party of fiscal restraint, family values (and I don't mean around abortion or gay marriage here as much as I mean policies that make raising a family easier) and in favor of free trade. It's really hard for me to say any of these things about the party now that Trump is de facto head of the party, and so naturally my voting patterns have shifted more Dem since then.

Also, at least in the Atlanta suburbs I grew up, decency and manners were not a nice to have, but literaly part of our upbringing. I think it's upsetting to a lot of suburban parents trying to teach their children the same that the President is the antithesis of this.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

- Suburbs have been moving toward Democrats since at least 2004 1992.

They were obviously never going to all flip at once, but the last 3 decades of politics has seen a wave of suburbs flip with each election. First it was Westchester and Ventura. Then it was Osecola and Bergen. Then it was Fairfax and DuPage. Then it was Gwinnett and Orange. Now it's Maricopa and Williamson.

[OSR stands with Israel]

- Suburbs have been moving toward Democrats since at least 2004 1992.

They were obviously never going to all flip at once, but the last 3 decades of politics has seen a wave of suburbs flip with each election. First it was Westchester and Ventura. Then it was Osecola and Bergen. Then it was Fairfax and DuPage. Then it was Gwinnett and Orange. Now it's Maricopa and Williamson.

2000 and 2004 saw a swing in many suburbs back to the GOP though, especially in the sunbelt.

[It’s so Joever]

Well let’s think about it. The newer inhabitants of the suburbs likely have accumulated a huge amount of college debt and are more likely to be receptive towards the party that wants to help at least a bit. As opposed to the party of their debt overlords.
Many of them are well educated and know that climate change will hurt their children heavily in the future, you think they want that? Well guess what happens when a national party goes out of their way to claim climate change is a hoax.
Also, healthcare costs have risen dramatically in the past few years and many are now becoming increasing liberal on the issue as families get screwed over by the current industry. You think a stay at home mother will care about her marginal tax rates going up when Janey has a preexisting condition and the GOP wants to allow insurance companies to screw her over?

And finally gun control. As school shootings become more prevalent on the news, the GOP continues to make themselves look like they want to kill school children (yeah sorry that’s the sentiment) Fair or not, this is the image in the minds of many younger suburban parents these days.

Plus keep in mind more and more millennials are moving to the suburbs (these are the people who are primarily facing the above issues) and the suburbs themselves are diversifying.

And then of course you do have the politeness aspect, although I think this is overrated and is a tiny splash compared to the tsunami of reasons above.

In sum, the suburbs of 2020 don’t face the same political issues as the suburbs of the 1980s.

[Roronoa D. Law]

- Suburbs have been moving toward Democrats since at least 2004 1992.

They were obviously never going to all flip at once, but the last 3 decades of politics has seen a wave of suburbs flip with each election. First it was Westchester and Ventura. Then it was Osecola and Bergen. Then it was Fairfax and DuPage. Then it was Gwinnett and Orange. Now it's Maricopa and Williamson.

2000 and 2004 saw a swing in many suburbs back to the GOP though, especially in the sunbelt.

The country as a whole swung right and still the sunbelt suburbs barely moved or swung left. Most of the GOP swings in 2004 were in the exurbs and that was mostly because of migration