forsythvoter
Jr. Member
Posts: 736
|
 |
« on: November 20, 2020, 10:47:05 PM » |
|
I think VA is probably the more appropriate IL of the South - although it's proximity to the Mid-Atlantic doesn't make it seem as much of an outlier on the map.
For GA to become an Illinois, I think one or both the following would need to happen:
1) The exurban counties like Forsyth, Cherokee, Hall, Coweta and Paulding vote more like McHenry or Kendall counties rather than 60-70% R.
2) The suburban counties (Cobb and Gwinnett) start voting like Fairfax or Montgomery Counties outside of DC.
While these counties certainly are trending D, I think reaching those levels of Democratic support isn't going to happen for at least 2-3 more cycles. That said, I do think GA is likely to become the second most Democratic leaning state behind Virginia for a long time. Metro Atlanta is driving the vast majority of the state's population growth and it is undeniably trending younger and more diverse. This has the dual effect of making the white vote more D-leaning even as the minority vote share grows.
|
