French presidential election 2017 if Sarkozy was re-elected in 2012

[UWS]

What if incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy stuns the world by winning re-election in 2012 over Francois Hollande, who would win the 2017 French presidential election?

[brucejoel99]

Montebourg or Aubry.

[Lechasseur]

I think this is very much an open question.

The PS has had serious issues in terms of bench since Jospin lost in 2002.

If the economy is doing well in 2017, I could see the UMP hold on to power running Juppé or (more moderate) Fillon or maybe even someone else like Baroin.

I think if Sarkozy survives in 2012, the PS struggles to find someone to beat the UMP.

I actually wouldn't be surprised if Valls ended up as the nominee in this scenario (in order to try the New Democrat/New Labour strategy).