Which will be the easier state for Republicans at the federal level going forward?

[MT Treasurer]

Prior to this election, NH was widely considered a far more competitive state than ME. Yet, this was the first election since 2004 in which NH trended D, and it also had a stronger D swing (7.01% so far) than ME (5.74%). The Democratic percentage of the vote was almost identical in both states, however (Biden received 52.86% in NH, 52.89% in ME).

While ME's long-term Republican trend may be less dramatic than some of us (including myself) expected, I still think it’ll be more fertile ground for the GOP in future elections, certainly at the federal level (maybe with one or two exceptions like Sununu in 2022). The D margins out of the Portland area/Cumberland County and a potential long-term trend in Bangor should concern ME Republicans, but even though Trump won ME-02, Democrats are still very reliant on rural/small-town strength in ME whereas I feel like NH is more susceptible to some of the cultural influences and demographic shifts that turned VT/MA into 65%+ D bastions. Virtually every region in NH (not just historically more R parts of the state along the MA border, but even areas in which Republicans had been making some inroads before this election, e.g. some of the counties bordering VT and the North Woods) trended D this year. I think Republicans have a much more reliable base of support to build on in ME, regardless how fast improvements actually occur.