|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 05, 2020, 05:41:36 PM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: VirginiŠ)
  Is Maine back to being a Safe D state on the presidential level?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Is Maine back to being a Safe D state on the presidential level?  (Read 593 times)
Catalyst138
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 559
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 20, 2020, 01:54:08 PM »

Maine definitely was scary for Democrats in 2016. After Obama had back-to-back 15-point victories in 2008 and 2012, the state suddenly swung 12 points and Hillary only won it by 3 (and Dems lost the second district for the first time since 1988). This has led to discussion about Maine being a future swing state.

However, 2020 saw a large snap back for Maine on the presidential level. Biden currently has a 10 point lead, and there are still more ballots to be counted with Bidenís lead only growing in the past few weeks. This makes Maine vote around 6 points left of the nation, on par with Virginia and reversing the heavy R trend from 2016. One interesting result is that the Second District still voted Trump by a sizable margin. This would indicate that Dems can more than make up losses there with gains in the First District, which voted for Biden by similar margins to 2008.

Is Maine on the table for future GOP presidential candidates, or is it back to being Safe Democrat?
Logged
KaiserDave
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,063
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.98, S: -4.11

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2020, 02:07:58 PM »

No definitely not.

Maine is still not trending in a Democratic direction.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,432


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2020, 02:08:36 PM »

No definitely not.

Maine is still not trending in a Democratic direction.

It just did.
Logged
KaiserDave
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,063
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.98, S: -4.11

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2020, 02:13:16 PM »

No definitely not.

Maine is still not trending in a Democratic direction.

It just did.

I see this as a temporary aberration

I was pleasantly surprised at how we did there, but over the long term Iím not very optimistic
Logged
Catalyst138
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 559
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2020, 02:14:49 PM »

No definitely not.

Maine is still not trending in a Democratic direction.

On the presidential level it definitely is. It went from Hillary +3 to Biden +10 when the popular vote only shifted by 2, meaning it trended D by 5%.

This is not an insignificant amount, Georgia only trended D by 3% and Arizona by 2%. Not that the trends will necessarily continue like that, but still.
Logged
KaiserDave
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,063
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.98, S: -4.11

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 20, 2020, 02:18:08 PM »

No definitely not.

Maine is still not trending in a Democratic direction.

On the presidential level it definitely is. It went from Hillary +3 to Biden +10 when the popular vote only shifted by 2, meaning it trended D by 5%.

This is not an insignificant amount, Georgia only trended D by 3% and Arizona by 2%. Not that the trends will necessarily continue like that, but still.


I hope youíre right
But Maine is quite elastic
Logged
kwabbit
Rookie
**
Posts: 199


Political Matrix
E: 0.00, S: -3.65

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 20, 2020, 02:42:33 PM »

I doubt it returns to 2008/2012 margins, but 2016 was something of an aberration. Clinton was a terrible fit for the state and the third party vote took away from her. Long-term it should trend R however. It has all the makings of Republican state: Extremely white, rural, relatively low educational attainment. In ME-02 especially the Democrats are on borrowed time. 
Logged
sev
SevenEleven
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,274


Political Matrix
E: -3.81, S: -8.26

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 20, 2020, 02:52:09 PM »

No definitely not.

Maine is still not trending in a Democratic direction.

On the presidential level it definitely is. It went from Hillary +3 to Biden +10 when the popular vote only shifted by 2, meaning it trended D by 5%.

This is not an insignificant amount, Georgia only trended D by 3% and Arizona by 2%. Not that the trends will necessarily continue like that, but still.


Two party splits are really lame in elections with high third party vote share. Trump lost about 1.5% on his 2016 total.
Logged
MATTROSE94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,553
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -6.43

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 21, 2020, 08:51:19 AM »

Ron DeSantis easily wins Maine in 2024 and might even hit Ronald Reagan 1984-levels there in his 2028 re-election bid.
Logged
ajc0918
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,511
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 21, 2020, 12:02:53 PM »

Can Maine Dems gerrymander its congressional districts so both voted for Biden without sacrificing either seat?
Logged
TML
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,077


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 21, 2020, 12:45:00 PM »

Can Maine Dems gerrymander its congressional districts so both voted for Biden without sacrificing either seat?

Sure, by moving Lewiston into district 1 and moving some coastal areas north/east of Portland into district 2. This would make both districts D-leaning.
Logged
TDAS04
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,452
Nepal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 21, 2020, 02:09:12 PM »

Maine is not safe.  It's one of the most unpredictable states, if not the most unpredictable.  A lot of people thought they would dump Susan Collins, when they obviously did not.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,708
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 21, 2020, 02:48:10 PM »

Can Maine Dems gerrymander its congressional districts so both voted for Biden without sacrificing either seat?

Sure, by moving Lewiston into district 1 and moving some coastal areas north/east of Portland into district 2. This would make both districts D-leaning.

This isnít as easy as you think. Portland City (obviously) and then South Portland/Brunswick are the bulk of Democratic strength in the First District, most of the other outlying/coastal areas are also fairly D but not as strongly D (except for Yarmouth, Falmouth, Cumberland) or not as populous. Thereís no way you can add enough D areas of CD-1 into CD-2 to make CD-2 reliably Democratic-leaning without risking a far more competitive CD-1. itís mostly a matter of population and Portland's geographic location, although the maps wouldnít be clean either -- you can add Brunswick but Portland/South Portland is more difficult and obviously not a compact map/a blatant gerrymander.
Logged
AGA
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,023
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 21, 2020, 08:56:48 PM »

It depends on how favorable the national environment, if Democrats are leading nationally by at least 2, then yes.
Logged
neostassenite31
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 268
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 21, 2020, 09:13:36 PM »
« Edited: November 21, 2020, 09:27:30 PM by neostassenite31 »

Can Maine Dems gerrymander its congressional districts so both voted for Biden without sacrificing either seat?

Sure, by moving Lewiston into district 1 and moving some coastal areas north/east of Portland into district 2. This would make both districts D-leaning.

One the rudimentary rules of partisan gerrymandering is that you usually need at a minimum 3 districts to make it really work.

With two districts you can only either:
A). draw two districts that both closely matches the state at-large's partisan lean (and hence the map would not be gerrymandered by most partisan metrics)

B). pack the Ds into one district and the Rs into the other, which can be done to varying degrees. This on net will also result in no overall statewide seat or vote bias because any excess votes for one party in one district must be balanced by a specific amount of excess votes for the other party in the second district such that the sum matches the statewide margin. The overall combined competitiveness of the two districts on average would not be much different from scenario A, so no gerrymandering here either.

Scenario A can easily turn into a dummymander if Maine trends R in the future or with a R favorable midterm wave. Also, Maine's current congressional map is already a case of scenario B.
Logged
TML
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,077


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 22, 2020, 02:57:39 AM »

Can Maine Dems gerrymander its congressional districts so both voted for Biden without sacrificing either seat?

Sure, by moving Lewiston into district 1 and moving some coastal areas north/east of Portland into district 2. This would make both districts D-leaning.

One the rudimentary rules of partisan gerrymandering is that you usually need at a minimum 3 districts to make it really work.

With two districts you can only either:
A). draw two districts that both closely matches the state at-large's partisan lean (and hence the map would not be gerrymandered by most partisan metrics)

B). pack the Ds into one district and the Rs into the other, which can be done to varying degrees. This on net will also result in no overall statewide seat or vote bias because any excess votes for one party in one district must be balanced by a specific amount of excess votes for the other party in the second district such that the sum matches the statewide margin. The overall combined competitiveness of the two districts on average would not be much different from scenario A, so no gerrymandering here either.

Scenario A can easily turn into a dummymander if Maine trends R in the future or with a R favorable midterm wave. Also, Maine's current congressional map is already a case of scenario B.

Actually, if you want to take scenario B a step further, you could make Portland, Lewiston, and Bangor all fall in district 1, which would make district 1 a virtual lock for Democrats and district 2 a virtual lock for Republicans.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.065 seconds with 12 queries.