Will Georgia stay "There yet?"

[forsythvoter]

Plus McBath + Boudreaux are DOA thanks to redistricting.   

GOP can get rid of one or the other, but not both.

It's possible to pack 3 ATL districts while keeping all the other North GA districts Safe R (>57% Trump/Kemp, or so.)  The issue is that it forces other concessions that the GA-GOP would rather not make, like spiraling East Cobb/North Fulton/some of Gwinnett way up into the Blue Ridge

That's true, but Democrats can probably sue for a fourth Atlanta VRA seat with AA population growth.

The exurban trends are what's problematic for the GOP here. To gerrymander the state, Rs will have to make Cherokee, Hall, Forsyth, Paulding, etc. the anchor for the new districts and hope that these counties don't follow the pathway of Gwinnett and Cobb. Forsyth, Paulding and Cherokee, however, don't fit in particularly well with the current R alignment within the state, so it's a risky gambit if Rs want to do an aggressive gerrymander.

[Figueira]

Can Republicans get rid of Sanford Bishop's district or is that not allowed?

[Devils30]

The GOP should consider just doing a safe 8-6 map that last the whole decade. I know District 7 is tempting for them but I wouldn't want anything to do with Gwinnett, it's going to become a high 60s county for Dems by the late 2020s. A complicating redistricting factor is state reps who may not want an 80% new district only to lose a primary to a MAGA challenger.

I think GA is a better bet for 2024 Dems than PA, WI for sure and maybe even MI, AZ. At least the tipping point if not slightly to the left.

[All Along The Watchtower]

I think Georgia has a better chance than Florida, but climate change will be rough regardless.

[skbl17]

Unlike Florida and North Carolina, states that I expect to stay Titanium Tilt R and Tossup respectively for cycles to come, Georgia does not have any of the following:

- a booming, influential retiree population (Peachtree City is not The Villages or Brunswick County)
- a Republican-friendly Hispanic voting block (No equivalent to Miami-Dade here)
- stagnant or R-trending suburbs (Gaston, Johnston, Iredell, Davidson, and Union counties in NC)
- a rural white voting block that isn't quite as diehard GOP as in Deep South states (i.e. more room to fall for Dems)

Now, this does mean that there is the potential for the GOP to "blow its load" one last time in Georgia (remember Virginia's 2009 elections?), but after that, it's off to the races until there's a dramatic demographic coalition change.

Of course, Dems won't take full control of Georgia in one fell swoop. The state government wasn't entirely Republican until January 2011, despite having gone Republican in every presidential race since 1996. Georgia voted for Biden in 2020, and who knows what will happen with those Senate seats in January, but I wouldn't expect the state government to become entirely Dem until maybe 2028 or 2030, and the General Assembly may take a bit longer.

Trump accelerated these changes, but he was not the catalyst like some users here may believe. Former governor Nathan Deal did worse in 2014 than he did in 2010, and Henry County voted Dem for the first time in 2014, not 2016. I would expect the shifts in metro Atlanta and the Savannah and Augusta suburbs to slow down with Trump gone, but they won't stop or "reverse".

In other words:

GA starts out at lean D in 24 and could easily stay Democrat even if Republican take back the White House. By 2028 unless demographics or voting patterns reverse themselves the state is probably gone for a political generation for Republicans.

Their isn’t much to counteract the D trend unless Republicans can make inroads with rural African Americans or asians and Hispanics which I guess I could see someday happening.

Lean D in 2024 IMO.

One or two narrow last hurrahs (2021 runoffs for GA-R and GA-S, 2022 midterms) won’t mean that the dam hasn’t broken. It’s going to be an uphill battle for any Republican to flip it back regardless of their ideological stripe/background, and I don’t see it as a more promising target for the GOP than NM/MN unless there’s a complete D collapse with the black vote (unlikely). There’s literally nothing left for the GOP to counteract D gains in raw votes and %-tage in the Atlanta metropolitan area.

[dw93]

2024 will show us what directions the trends go for both GA and AZ. I think Georgia will see a R snap back in 2022 for sure, but 2024 and beyond will be very telling.

[Cassandra]

It's going to have a North Carolina-style 2010/14 "snap back" in 2022.

Plus McBath + Boudreaux are DOA thanks to redistricting.  

If they redistricting both of them out...that would be a dummymander.
Far safer to just knock one out and create a fourth D sink.

Even a district which was 55-60% Kemp or so now could easily fall if trends continue.
If it weren’t for VRA I would cut up that SW Georgia district if I were the GA GOP.

It might be a dummymander, but I wouldn't bet on the Georgia GOP being able to plan ten years in advance. Also, the fourth "D sink" in the Atlanta area would not be 50% AA, so there's no need to draw one to satisfy VRA. Can't see them shrinking at drawing districts that snake out to the Blue Ridge.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Also, the fourth "D sink" in the Atlanta area would not be 50% AA.

It could be.
1. South Cobb/Douglas/South Fulton
2. Clayton/Henry/Rockdale
3. East DeKalb/South Gwinnett
4. City of Atlanta