LBJ dies exactly ten years early
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  LBJ dies exactly ten years early
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Jolly Slugg
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« on: November 20, 2020, 07:13:26 AM »

... on January 22, 1963.

What are the obvious effects and butterflies?

One is that as it's January 1963, and there's no 25th amendment, JFK is without a VP until January 1965.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2020, 09:19:54 AM »

First off, let me address the obvious elephant in the room. While butterflies are likely to change the date, Kennedy will still be making an appearance in an open convertible in Dallas in Autumn 1963. The electoral map dictates that Kennedy lock down Texas if he can, so campaigning with potential running mate, Governor John Connally, will happen.

Whether a Kennedy assassination attempt still happens or it has the same results can't be known.

If it does, then Speaker John McCormack becomes the first President since Grover Cleveland to be from the same State as the previous President (Chester A. Arthur), and Carl Albert becomes Speaker seven years early.

McCormack probably has no choice but to run for President in 1964 despite his age, but if he still faces Goldwater, he should easily win.

However, with neither JFK nor LBJ running, it's less likely the Republicans nominate Goldwater to be a sacrificial victim in the inevitable loss, since McCormack won't be an inevitable victor. Against President McCormack, I think Nixon tries again, but might not get the nomination.

If Kennedy survives or isn't shot, then 1964 is likely a Kennedy-Nixon rematch.

I've laid out the starting points, but don't feel like picking paths beyond them.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2020, 10:08:43 AM »

Speaker McCormack becomes acting prez in Nov 1963 and RFK is elected 36th prez in 1964 in a landslide.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2020, 12:12:24 PM »

Speaker McCormack becomes acting prez in Nov 1963 and RFK is elected 36th prez in 1964 in a landslide.

No. RFK had no chance of becoming President in 1964. Schlesinger likely gives him the same advice as in OTL, so he becomes Senator from New York, the same as OTL rather than being anyone's running mate. While butterflies could lead to him becoming President in 1968, 1964 is way too soon.
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Samof94
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« Reply #4 on: November 21, 2020, 07:51:20 AM »

Does that scandal get butterflied away?
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #5 on: November 21, 2020, 11:00:16 AM »

Does that scandal get butterflied away?

Which scandal?
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Don Vito Corleone
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« Reply #6 on: November 23, 2020, 02:55:27 PM »

Think he means the Bobby Baker one
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President Johnson
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« Reply #7 on: November 23, 2020, 03:22:54 PM »

Hard to predict whether Jack Kennedy would have been more careful with his public appearances with the absence of the vice president, who could not be replaced at the time.

If Kennedy is still assassinated, Speaker John McCormack would have ended up as caretaker for the remainder of the term. It would have been the first time in US history there is no official president in name and title, only an acting officer. He would have governed low key and not run in the 1964 presidential election. I think Hubert Humphrey would have been the nominee in 1964 then, running with a Southern running mate (like Stuart Symington). Hubert would have won quite handily and passed some Civil Rights Bills. He may not have gone to a full scale war in Vietnam and lose it to the Communists, causing a backlash at home from the right. Combined with "overreach" in domestic programs, I see him vulnerable to a Republican challenger in 1968, potentially Richard Nixon again.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #8 on: November 27, 2020, 07:00:40 PM »

The Gulf of Tonkin incident likely doesn’t happen under President John McCormack, which butterflies away full-scale US involvement in the Vietnam War other than having a contingent of military “advisors.”
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #9 on: November 27, 2020, 09:55:00 PM »

The Gulf of Tonkin incident likely doesn’t happen under President John McCormack, which butterflies away full-scale US involvement in the Vietnam War other than having a contingent of military “advisors.”

What makes you think McCormack gets rid of McNamara? While it is plausible that McCormack reacts differently to the Gulf of Tonkin incident, it McNamara is still Secretary of Defense, the incident still happens.
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Jolly Slugg
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« Reply #10 on: November 28, 2020, 05:24:37 AM »

The Secret Service will be on edge with no VP because of LBJ's heart death, no matter how necessary JFK's trip to Texas is in the fall of 1963. The fact that the next in line is an elderly practical invalid will only increase their on edgedness.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #11 on: November 28, 2020, 10:01:58 PM »

The Gulf of Tonkin incident likely doesn’t happen under President John McCormack, which butterflies away full-scale US involvement in the Vietnam War other than having a contingent of military “advisors.”

What makes you think McCormack gets rid of McNamara? While it is plausible that McCormack reacts differently to the Gulf of Tonkin incident, it McNamara is still Secretary of Defense, the incident still happens.
I think that President McCormack reacts to the incident differently.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #12 on: December 02, 2020, 08:18:45 PM »

Yes JFK would likely still campaign in Texas, but in Dallas, on a date and time and in the location where he would have to be for Oswald to successfully shoot him? That's much less clear. It's possible any campaigning in Dallas is postponed or done earlier. Maybe Oswald can't make it. Maybe Oswald gets caught for attempting to kill Gen. Edwin Walker earlier that year (he didn't get caught in real life, but a butterfly effect can change many things) or gets in some other kind of trouble. Maybe he picks a different target (his widow Marina actually said he wanted to kill Richard Nixon). Maybe he has a change of heart at some point, becomes less political and violent. Maybe JFK doesn't take the same route under the Texas Book Depository or doesn't do a motorcade at all, just has some kind of speaking event instead. Hell, maybe he does events in Houston or San Antonio or something instead of Dallas.

And that last part matters more than you might think, because according to maybe the only person to ever know both JFK and Oswald (as well as Marina), Priscilla McMillan, Oswald likely would not have shot JFK had he not taken the specific route under where he worked:

Quote
And the president came to him. Compared to the route, no other determinant mattered at all. Everything that had ever happened to Lee Oswald could have happened it exactly the way it had, his whole life could have been exactly what it had been, and it would not have made any difference. President Kennedy could have come and gone from Dallas in perfect safety. But the choice of a route that would carry the president past his window could mean only one thing to Lee—fate, duty, and historical necessity had come together in this time and place and singled him out to do the deed.
The tragedy of the president's assassination was its terrible randomness.

In other words, that specific route made Oswald feel like it was his destiny to shoot JFK. Any even slight deviation and there is a good chance he never would have attempted it, as she does not seem to believe he would have gone out of his way to kill Kennedy, that it was essential that he come to him.

You also have to remember that part of the reason Kennedy was in Texas at that time was to help assuage tensions between the liberal and conservative wings of the state party; it wasn't just a campaign trip. LBJ's death might have helped alleviate those tensions earlier, and JFK might not have campaigned there until later in 1964. Or he might have been there earlier for LBJ's funeral, and wouldn't feel compelled to go back again until later. Giving plenty of time for other things to butterfly Oswald's shot away.

All this is to say I think it's highly likely that the assassination is butterflied away. And even if it's not, maybe JFK appoints someone else as VP first, so whoever that is becomes President instead of McCormack. True, LBJ didn't bother to appoint a VP until he and Humphrey won the election, but maybe JFK would if it happened nearly 2 years before the next election instead of less than 1.

Anyway, just assuming that JFK lives, I imagine he probably is able to successfully pass the Civil Rights Act and wins the 1964 election in a landslide, though maybe not as big of one as LBJ won in reality. (Although, the biggest reason Goldwater lost so badly wasn't because of a "sympathy bump" over the assassination as is commonly portrayed; it's because he was seen as an extremist, plus JFK was very popular.)

The rest is largely up for debate and is a pretty standard "What if JFK lived?" open question in regards to how Vietnam would have played out, how effectively he could have passed other legislation like Medicare, Medicaid, Voting Rights Act, etc. LBJ's legislative skills would certainly be missed. The biggest question in my mind is who JFK replaces LBJ with, whether before or during the election. I can actually see it being John Connally or Ralph Yarborough to replace LBJ as a Texan.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #13 on: December 02, 2020, 08:25:09 PM »

All this is to say I think it's highly likely that the assassination is butterflied away. And even if it's not, maybe JFK appoints someone else as VP first, so whoever that is becomes President instead of McCormack. True, LBJ didn't bother to appoint a VP until he and Humphrey won the election, but maybe JFK would if it happened nearly 2 years before the next election instead of less than 1.

There was literally no way to appoint a Vice President before the 25th Amendment... it's not that LBJ "didn't bother".
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #14 on: December 02, 2020, 08:27:56 PM »

All this is to say I think it's highly likely that the assassination is butterflied away. And even if it's not, maybe JFK appoints someone else as VP first, so whoever that is becomes President instead of McCormack. True, LBJ didn't bother to appoint a VP until he and Humphrey won the election, but maybe JFK would if it happened nearly 2 years before the next election instead of less than 1.

There was literally no way to appoint a Vice President before the 25th Amendment... it's not that LBJ "didn't bother".

My mistake. It’s possible this speeds up the adoption of a similar amendment, howver.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #15 on: December 03, 2020, 01:41:33 AM »

All this is to say I think it's highly likely that the assassination is butterflied away. And even if it's not, maybe JFK appoints someone else as VP first, so whoever that is becomes President instead of McCormack. True, LBJ didn't bother to appoint a VP until he and Humphrey won the election, but maybe JFK would if it happened nearly 2 years before the next election instead of less than 1.

There was literally no way to appoint a Vice President before the 25th Amendment... it's not that LBJ "didn't bother".

My mistake. It’s possible this speeds up the adoption of a similar amendment, howver.

Doubtful. The major reason for the passage of the 25th was not to provide the means to appoint Vice Presidents when that office was vacant, but to provide procedures for how to deal with an incapacitated but still living President. A very real possibility had been that JFK could have been severely brain-damaged by the bullet but not killed.
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Jolly Slugg
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« Reply #16 on: December 03, 2020, 06:03:35 AM »

 Ralph Yarborough was a joke to most people. He's not getting on a national ticket.
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