Why did New Jersey, California, and Michigan swing toward Bush?

[darklordoftech]

270towin.com’s margin of victory maps give them a lighter shade of blue for 2004 than for 2000.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

9/11 effect in NJ. MI and CA did swing R but trended D.

[un]

New Jersey was largely 9/11 and on a smaller note, Orthodox Jewish vote swinging heavily to Bush in 2004 (in Ocean County mainly).

Michigan was likely just Bush doing better with people of color and shoring up his rural base, though the swing was pretty minimal compared to 2000, so not much changed.

California was largely improving with Hispanics and wealthier suburban voters in Southern Cali, though this swing wasn't that big either, cause Kerry shored up his liberal base in the San Francisco area and the West Coast generally.

[Redban]

Because Bush won the national popular vote by 2-3% in 2004. In the prior election, the popular vote was a near-tie. A better environment for Bush = more states swing in his favor