Let's get realistic: Rank the following candidates in tiers by how likely they are to run.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Please group them into tiers.  S/A/B/C/D/F.  Based on how likely they are to run.

So S-tier would be folks who are 90-100% likely to run.  F-tier would be like Michelle Obama or some other candidate who will absolutely not be running.  And in-between, let's say A is 70-90%, B is 50-70%, C is 30-50%, D is 5-30%.

Here is the complete list of candidates you may consider:

REPUBLICANS
Donald Trump
Donald Trump Jr.
Ivanka Trump
Mike Pence
Nikki Haley
Mike Pompeo
Tom Cotton
Ted Cruz
Josh Hawley
Rick Scott
Tim Scott
Ben Sasse
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
Mitt Romney
Ron DeSantis
Greg Abbott
Kristi Noem
Larry Hogan
Charlie Baker
Marjorie Taylor-Greene
Tucker Carlson
Sean Hannity


DEMOCRATS (assuming one-term Biden)
Kamala Harris
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Bernie Sanders
Nina Turner
Gretchen Whitmer
Gavin Newsom
Andrew Cuomo
Pete Buttigieg
Andrew Yang
Stacey Abrams
Jay Inslee
Andy Beshear

[GeneralMacArthur]

Mine:

S-tier
Nikki Haley
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Kamala Harris

A-tier
Donald Trump
Mike Pence
Tom Cotton
Josh Hawley
Rick Scott

B-tier
Donald Trump Jr.
Mike Pompeo
Tim Scott
Marjorie Taylor-Greene
Pete Buttigieg

C-tier
Ben Sasse
Ron DeSantis
Larry Hogan
Tucker Carlson
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Andrew Cuomo
Andrew Yang
Gretchen Whitmer

D-tier
Kristie Noem
Greg Abbott
Charlie Baker
Stacey Abrams
Jay Inslee
Andy Beshear

F-tier
Mitt Romney
John Kasich
Sean Hannity
Bernie Sanders
Nina Turner

[Left Wing]

Moved things around a little but mostly agree.

S-tier
Nikki Haley
Kamala Harris

A-tier
Donald Trump
Mike Pence
Larry Hogan
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Andrew Yang

B-tier
Donald Trump Jr.
Mike Pompeo
Ron DeSantis
Tom Cotton
Tim Scott
Pete Buttigieg

C-tier
Rick Scott
Tim Scott
Tucker Carlson
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Andrew Cuomo
Gretchen Whitmer

D-tier
Greg Abbott
Josh Hawley
Stacey Abrams
Jay Inslee
Andy Beshear

F-tier
Mitt Romney
John Kasich
Sean Hannity
Charlie Baker
Ben Sasse
Marjorie Taylor-Greene
Bernie Sanders
Nina Turner

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I am also ranking all non-Trump Republicans under the assumption that he doesn't run, because I expect token opposition if he does.

S-tier
Donald Trump
Nikki Haley
Ted Cruz
Tom Cotton
Ron DeSantis
Rick Scott
Kamala Harris

A-tier
Donald Trump, Jr.
Tim Scott
Tucker Carlson
Marco Rubio
Marjorie Taylor-Greene
Greg Abbott
Pete Buttigieg

B-tier
Tucker Carlson
Kristi Noem
Mike Pence
Andrew Cuomo
Andrew Yang
Gretchen Whitmer

C-tier
Josh Hawley
Ben Sasse
Mike Pompeo

D-tier
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Stacey Abrams
Jay Inslee
Andy Beshear

F-tier
Sean Hannity
Larry Hogan
Charlie Baker
John Kasich
Mitt Romney
Bernie Sanders
Nina Turner

[NewYorkExpress]

S-Tier

Donald Trump
Tom Cotton
Kamala Harris
Nina Turner
Andrew Yang

A-Tier

Marco Rubio
Ted Cruz
Mike Pence
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Nikki Haley
Rick Scott
Ron DeSantis
Josh Hawley
Kirsti Noem

B Tier

Stacey Abrams
Mike Pomepo
Charlie Baker
Donald Trump Jr.
Bernie Sanders
Larry Hogan
Pete Buttigeig

C Tier

Jay Inslee
Gretchen Whitmer
Marjorie Taylor-Greene
Tucker Carlson
Jay Inslee
Ben Sasse

D Tier

Greg Abbott'
Tucker Carlson
Gavin Newsom
Tim Scott

F Tier

Mitt Romney
John Kasich
Sean Hannity
Andy Beshear
Andrew Cuomo
Charlie Baker

[McGarnagle]

REPUBLICANS
B - Trump, Pence, Haley, Cotton, Romney, DeSantis
C - Trump Jr., Ivanka Trump, Pompeo, Cruz, Hawley, Rick Scott, Tim Scott, Hogan, Baker, Taylor-Greene
D - Sasse, Rubio, Kasich, Abbot, Noem, Carlson
F - Hannity

Trump likely would be driven by his ego to run for President again - but the reason he and his family are only at B or C rather than A or S is because I don't know what their legal situation will be at how that may impact things. They could be in prison.

Hannity is a lickspittle, not a leader. I doubt he'd ever actually put himself in a place where he had to be the one making the decisions. Carlson said he wouldn't run but he's not exactly known for being a purveyor of truth. I expect Romney to set himself up for a third run, but not to get very far.

DEMOCRATS (assuming one-term Biden)
S - Harris
B - Buttigieg, Newsom, Cuomo, Yang, Abrams, Beshear
C - AOC, Turner, Whitmer, Inslee
D - Bernie

If Biden serves only one term I guarantee Harris will run and probably win the nomination. I think AOC would probably wait a bit longer to run for President, maybe become a Senator first. Bernie would run if he was younger but he'd probably feel that he'd be too old by that time. If he did run, I'd vote for him though, old age be damned.

[DabbingSanta]

Only ones I give 50%+ odds in no particular order

Rep: Pence, Haley, Cotton, Cruz, Hawley, Tim Scott, Sasse, DeSantis, Noem

Dem: Harris, Yang

[GeneralMacArthur]

Bumping this thread, I think this was a fun exercise and we should do it again now that we've had eight-months of pre-primary.

My changes are the following:
DeSantis:  C -> S
Cuomo:  C -> F
Yang:  C -> F
Noem:  D -> A
Turner:  F -> B

[Alben Barkley]

I'm just going to exclude Trump from this if we're also excluding Biden, because he could clear the field. So the rankings are based on how likely I think the Republicans are to run if they know Trump is not running.

Republicans:

S - Haley, Cruz, Hawley, DeSantis, Noem, Hogan
A - Pompeo, Cotton, Rick Scott, MTG
B - Pence, Rubio, Carlson
C - Trump Jr., Tim Scott, Romney
D - Sasse, Abbott
F - Ivanka, Kasich, Hannity

Democrats:

S - Harris
A - AOC
B - Buttigieg, Abrams
C - Turner, Whitmer, Newsom, Inslee
D - Yang, Beshear
F - Sanders, Cuomo

[NewYorkExpress]

On my rankings, Pence drops from A tier all the way to F tier. With his unwillingness to overturn the election, he's not running and even if he did, he wouldn't get very far.

Noem, DeSantis and Hawley move up to S tier

Yang drops from S Tier to B Tier.

Newsom drops from D Tier to F Tier

AOC moves up to S Tier (assuming Biden doesn't run again).

[Redban]

Cruz ain't running in 2024. He's gotta' focus all his time, resources, and fundraising on keeping his Senate seat.

Legally, Cruz may be allowed to run for both his Senate and Presidential seat, but as a practical matter, he can't run for both. He has finite resources.

[Del Tachi]

Rankings like these will not be of very much use before we have a handle on whether or not Biden and Trump themselves are running, since every major candidate's decision is going to be conditioned on their decisions

That being said, there are several Republicans who I think would be more likely than not to run under any scenario:  those namely being Haley, Cotton, Cruz, Hawley, Tim Scott, and DeSantis. 

[EugeneDebs]

Democrats

S Tier

1. Kamala Harris

2. Andrew Cuomo

A Tier

1. Gavin Newsom

2. Gretchen Whitmer

3. Pete Buttigieg

B Tier

1. Bernie Sanders

2. Stacey Abrams

C Tier

1. Andrew Yang


D Tier

1. Andy Beshear

2. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez


F Tier

1. Jay Inslee

2. Nina Turner



Republicans


S Tier

1. Donald Trump

2. Ron DeSantis

3. Nikki Haley

A Tier

1. Josh Hawley

2. Mike Pompeo

3. Kristi Noem

4. Greg Abbott


B Tier

1. Tom Cotton

2. Marco Rubio

3. Tim Scott


C Tier

1. Ted Cruz

2. Mike Pence

3. Donald Trump Jr.

4. Ben Sasse

5. John Kasich

D Tier

1. Larry Hogan

2. Charlie Baker

3. Marjorie Taylor-Greene

4. Rick Scott

F Tier

1. Ivanka Trump

2. Mitt Romney

3. Tucker Carlson

4. Sean Hannity

[Alben Barkley]

Democrats

S Tier

1. Kamala Harris

2. Andrew Cuomo

Not a chance in hell anymore. He may have an ego, but he's not stupid. He knows damn well he could not possibly win a presidential primary at this point. He's going to put all his energy into winning a fourth term as governor, and even that is by no means guaranteed.

[EugeneDebs]

He's not stupid, but I think he is arrogant enough to do it.

[Ferguson97]

He's not stupid, but I think he is arrogant enough to do it.

No major establishment figure is going to challenge Biden or Harris.

[EugeneDebs]

He's not stupid, but I think he is arrogant enough to do it.

No major establishment figure is going to challenge Biden or Harris.

1. This was assuming that Biden didn't run for a second term, according to the original post.

2. Why wouldn't they challenge Harris?

[Kleine Scheiße]

I think Pompeo is definitely going to run if Trump doesn't.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

REPUBLICANS
S
Donald Trump
Ron DeSantis
A
Nikki Haley
Mike Pompeo
Tim Scott
Mike Pence
Ted Cruz
Greg Abbott
Kristi Noem
B
Donald Trump Jr.
Tom Cotton
Josh Hawley
C
Marco Rubio
Rick Scott
Tucker Carlson
D
Marjorie Taylor-Greene
Mitt Romney
Larry Hogan
Ben Sasse
F
Ivanka Trump
John Kasich
Sean Hannity
Charlie Baker

DEMOCRATS (assuming one-term Biden)
Kamala Harris

[Suburbia]

Um, you're forgetting Chris Christie.....

[Technocracy Timmy]

Um, you're forgetting Chris Christie.....

I don’t think he runs at all.

[Minnesota Mike]

First for the record Biden is 90% likely to run and clear the field.

Second how can not have Amy Klobuchar on your list of prospective Democrats but do have Nina Turner?

[OSR STANDS WITH PALESTINE]

Um, you're forgetting Chris Christie.....

I don’t think he runs at all.

Have you seen him? He doesn’t run anywhere, however he might walk for president

[GeneralMacArthur]

First for the record Biden is 90% likely to run and clear the field.

Second how can not have Amy Klobuchar on your list of prospective Democrats but do have Nina Turner?

Well Nina Turner has made some allusions to running, and has pretty clearly been making moves to inherit the Sanders campaign infrastructure, which she's testing out in OH-11.  I think if Biden doesn't run, she probably tries to run with that infrastructure, or at least do a campaign to build a national brand and raise big moolah.  There's room enough for her and AOC since they're really two different veins of the leftist crowd at this point.

I haven't heard anything about Amy Klobuchar showing any interest in the presidency these days.

[Minnesota Mike]

First for the record Biden is 90% likely to run and clear the field.

Second how can not have Amy Klobuchar on your list of prospective Democrats but do have Nina Turner?

Well Nina Turner has made some allusions to running, and has pretty clearly been making moves to inherit the Sanders campaign infrastructure, which she's testing out in OH-11.  I think if Biden doesn't run, she probably tries to run with that infrastructure, or at least do a campaign to build a national brand and raise big moolah.  There's room enough for her and AOC since they're really two different veins of the leftist crowd at this point.

I haven't heard anything about Amy Klobuchar showing any interest in the presidency these days.

Amy Klobuchar is ambitious as hell. She is also a team player so you won't hear about plans to run in 2024 when it is very likely Biden runs. I think it almost a cinch she runs in 2028 or in 2024 in the unlikely event Biden does not run. Turner may run but she would be as irrelevant as Gabbard was last time. Heck it's only 50/50 Turner wins the special election for OH-11.