POLL: Georgia Gubernatorial Rematch

[MargieCat]

It seems like common knowledge that Abrams wants a rematch with Kemp.

Now that Trumpworld is angry at Kemp and Raffensperger, it seems like Kemp might not even be the nominee.

If he is the nominee, turnout might not be good enough to push him over the finish line.

Someone like Doug Collins could primary Kemp, as there seems to be bad blood between the two since Kemp appointed Loeffler to the Isakson seat that Collins felt entitled to. Especially if Loeffler makes it through the runoff.

[bagelman]

Abrams will be very slighted favored. Kemp needs to hope for a red wave and eventual passing of the Trump '20 bitterness.

[Real Texan Politics]

Biden flipped it, and Abrams is still very popular both in the state and nationwide (contrary to popular belief). She's gonna win the state by a slightly bigger margin than Biden in my opinion.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Kemp should be able to survive his primary and Trumpian backlash by redirecting most of the heat onto Raffensperger.

[MargieCat]

Biden flipped it, and Abrams is still very popular both in the state and nationwide (contrary to popular belief). She's gonna win the state by a slightly bigger margin than Biden in my opinion.

That's kind of what I figured. She seems more "famous" than Brian Kemp at this point, for lack of a better term.

Most on this board will say 2022 is a red wave and that Kemp will sail to re-election. But not if his opponent is Abrams, IMO.

[Real Texan Politics]

Biden flipped it, and Abrams is still very popular both in the state and nationwide (contrary to popular belief). She's gonna win the state by a slightly bigger margin than Biden in my opinion.

That's kind of what I figured. She seems more "famous" than Brian Kemp at this point, for lack of a better term.

Most on this board will say 2022 is a red wave and that Kemp will sail to re-election. But not if his opponent is Abrams, IMO.

Abrams would easily beat him in terms of fundraising, both from Georgia and nationwide.

In fact I predict she'll get more money in donations than any other gubernatorial candidate in American history, and quote me on that because I guarantee it's gonna happen.

[NewYorkExpress]

Kemp will still be favored, as it's a Biden midterm.

However, unlike running against Greg Abbott in Texas, there is a clear path to victory for Abrams if she runs in 2022, and Biden just showed how to do it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Stacy Abrams

[GALeftist]

I can say for sure that people in ATL absolutely despise Kemp, even a lot of annoying people who might consider Perdue, since Kemp is more directly associated with orange man. Now that the cultists are turning on the GAGOP I'd be very worried if I were Kemp.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is wave insurance, we must be aware of this it's Tilt R/Tossup in a Biden midterm, it's no slam dunk for Ds

[lfromnj]

I think Abrams is in a pure tossup for her reelection race, will have to wait.

[Bootes Void]

I think Kemp narrowly holds on but if Raffensperger gets primaries, I can see Dems pick the SOS seat

[Frenchrepublican]

Considering that GA democrats have slowly improved their standing in every gubernatorial races since their low point of 2006 and when taking into account the fact that GA is largely immune to national waves it’s fair to say that Abrams would have probably a very solid chance of winning the race.

I would probably rate it as Tossup

[skbl17]

Considering that GA democrats have slowly improved their standing in every gubernatorial races since their low point of 2006 and when taking into account the fact that GA is largely immune to national waves it’s fair to say that Abrams would have probably a very solid chance of winning the race.

I would probably rate it as Tossup

I agree, I would start GA-GOV as a tossup.

People who say "Kemp will be fine because it'll be a bIdEn MiDTerM" don't understand that Georgia doesn't really swing that way in state-level races; applying Iowa/Pennsylvania/Wisconsin style political dynamics to this state doesn't work all that well.

Sonny Perdue was a two-term governor, and his opponent in 2006 was the sitting lieutenant governor, not exactly a horrible candidate. Deal did worse in 2014 than he did in 2010. As frenchrepublican says, things were already improving for Democrats in this state before Trump came along. I have always maintained that Dems would be winning statewide races by 2022; the exact offices, I don't know, but they would be winning.

2020 was a bit early in my view for this to happen, but the idea that GA could become a state that regularly votes Dem (even in decent years for the GOP) while Florida and NC vote Republican more often that not is not far-fetched. Even pre-Trump, most trends in GA favored Democrats, and the counterbalances you see in FL and NC, such as a more Republican-leaning Hispanic voting block (FL,) stagnant or R-trending suburbs (NC,) or a rapidly growing retiree population (both,) don't exist in GA. The only counterbalance is the Dem collapse in rural Georgia, but that's been the case for a while now and they seem to be at rock bottom (look at the number of Georgia counties where Kemp and Trump got more than 80-85% of the vote).

There's a reason why the state GA is most compared to is VA, not NC.

Next, there's the General Assembly. The coming maps will ensure that GOP majorities (not veto-proof supermajorities; that ship sailed in 2015) stay in place through the decade, so there isn't the risk of a Dem governor "ruining the state" because they'll still have to strike balance with a Republican-majority state legislature. Something like that may sound more appealing to independents than the idea of a completely Dem or GOP state government. Both sides will have leverage, but neither will be able to completely overrule the other. FWIW, Stacey Abrams actually worked well with Republicans as minority leader in the state House.

Finally, there's Kemp's own approval ratings. They seem to be bouncing all over the place, but it's clear that he's doing far worse on approval than Nathan Deal was; on a good day, he'll have an approval rating in the low-50s. It's the fact that with Deal and (Sonny) Perdue, Republicans universally approved, independents strongly approved, and Dems were ambivalent, but with Kemp, Republicans mostly approve, independents tepidly approve (although that depends on the poll,) and Dems strongly disapprove. Kemp doesn't have the same bedrock support Deal and Perdue had.

[VAR]

Pure toss-up. My guess is Kemp by under half a point.

[Yellowhammer]

It would be Lean Kemp, probably Kemp +3-5.

[QAnonKelly]

I'd give a slight edge to Abrams at this point. GA doesn't really flow with nationwide trends and it's slowly but surely moving left with each election. Kemp was always skating on thin ice but he's been a mediocre governor and the GA-GOP is turning on each other. At this point, Abrams can really hammer him on Medicaid expansion. If he were smart (which he isn't) he'd just go ahead and take the expansion because it's cheaper than his waivers and he'd be taking the big leverage she has off the table.

[Frenchrepublican]

Considering that GA democrats have slowly improved their standing in every gubernatorial races since their low point of 2006 and when taking into account the fact that GA is largely immune to national waves it’s fair to say that Abrams would have probably a very solid chance of winning the race.

I would probably rate it as Tossup

I agree, I would start GA-GOV as a tossup.

People who say "Kemp will be fine because it'll be a bIdEn MiDTerM" don't understand that Georgia doesn't really swing that way in state-level races; applying Iowa/Pennsylvania/Wisconsin style political dynamics to this state doesn't work all that well.

Sonny Perdue was a two-term governor, and his opponent in 2006 was the sitting lieutenant governor, not exactly a horrible candidate. Deal did worse in 2014 than he did in 2010. As frenchrepublican says, things were already improving for Democrats in this state before Trump came along. I have always maintained that Dems would be winning statewide races by 2022; the exact offices, I don't know, but they would be winning.

2020 was a bit early in my view for this to happen, but the idea that GA could become a state that regularly votes Dem (even in decent years for the GOP) while Florida and NC vote Republican more often that not is not far-fetched. Even pre-Trump, most trends in GA favored Democrats, and the counterbalances you see in FL and NC, such as a more Republican-leaning Hispanic voting block (FL,) stagnant or R-trending suburbs (NC,) or a rapidly growing retiree population (both,) don't exist in GA. The only counterbalance is the Dem collapse in rural Georgia, but that's been the case for a while now and they seem to be at rock bottom (look at the number of Georgia counties where Kemp and Trump got more than 80-85% of the vote).

There's a reason why the state GA is most compared to is VA, not NC.

Next, there's the General Assembly. The coming maps will ensure that GOP majorities (not veto-proof supermajorities; that ship sailed in 2015) stay in place through the decade, so there isn't the risk of a Dem governor "ruining the state" because they'll still have to strike balance with a Republican-majority state legislature. Something like that may sound more appealing to independents than the idea of a completely Dem or GOP state government. Both sides will have leverage, but neither will be able to completely overrule the other. FWIW, Stacey Abrams actually worked well with Republicans as minority leader in the state House.

Finally, there's Kemp's own approval ratings. They seem to be bouncing all over the place, but it's clear that he's doing far worse on approval than Nathan Deal was; on a good day, he'll have an approval rating in the low-50s. It's the fact that with Deal and (Sonny) Perdue, Republicans universally approved, independents strongly approved, and Dems were ambivalent, but with Kemp, Republicans mostly approve, independents tepidly approve (although that depends on the poll,) and Dems strongly disapprove. Kemp doesn't have the same bedrock support Deal and Perdue had.

Good sum-up.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams is going to smash fundraising records and unlike Harrison and McGrath, that money will be put to good use in a state that has a viable Democratic majority.

[Suburbia]

Abrams wins 51%-48%

GA Dems pick up the Governorship, Lt. Governorship, Secy. of State, and Commissioner of Agriculture, despite it being a Biden midterm, if they hold their cards right

[Mr. Smith]

Lean Kemp.

Kicking out Trump did no favors for D turnout, who at least was a good scapegoat...and Biden doesn't strike me as someone who'll rally like crazy for anyone and get that cultish following so needed to resist the inevitable.

GA might trend D as the rest of the nation goes even further right...but gravy, an actual flip in a D midterm...sorry but Kemp is still no Corbett or McCrory.

[Hope For A New Era]

Here's a fun take, if Raffensperger wins his primary he's safe even if all other statewide seats somehow flip to Democrats. Holcomb-level crossover support. He'll end up being Georgia's Jim Hood. I mean, his ads write themselves. "The Republican who stood up for democracy while all the others worshiped the ground Trump walked on."

[Red Wall]

Kemp by 4. Bigger win than in 2018 but smaller shift compared to the national environment.

[VAR]

The new SurveyUSA poll has Kemp approval 43/46.

[lfromnj]

The new SurveyUSA poll has Kemp approval 43/46.

Statewide or with the runoff electorate?