Extremely Early 2021-2022 Gubernatorial Ratings
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Author Topic: Extremely Early 2021-2022 Gubernatorial Ratings  (Read 4804 times)
beesley
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #50 on: February 21, 2021, 06:17:00 AM »

Safe R: AL, AR, ID, NE, OK, TN, TX, VT, WY
Likely R: AK, IA, MA, NH, OH, SC, SD
Lean R: FL
Tossup: GA, KS, NV, PA, WI
Lean D: AZ, ME, MD, RI
Likely D: CT, IL, NJ, NM, OR, VA
Safe D: CA, CO, HI, MN, NY
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #51 on: February 21, 2021, 06:23:29 AM »
« Edited: February 21, 2021, 06:52:45 AM by MR. KAYNE WEST »

Underestimating Charlie Crist is for Gov would be beneficial to him, he almost beat Rick Scott in 2014, in an R plus 5 year..
Users think that the 306 map is the end all be all and OH, NC and FL will never vote D again, LoL

It's called as Sunbelt South being wave insurance

D's would have won 334  map which included FL, had the election taken place after Floyd Protest, he recovered only to lose it all again with WC females and Minorities after Insurrectionists

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Mexican Wolf
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« Reply #52 on: February 21, 2021, 02:52:32 PM »

Seeing a bunch of 'Lean D Oregon' predictions. Is there something bubbling over there or is it another "Oregon is bound to be purple any day now" scenario that seems to pop up every election?

(Speaking as someone who may be Portland-bound by November 2022)

I could see people rating Oregon as Lean or Likely D just because the margin is bound to be close like every Oregon's governor race has been since the 1990s (barring 1998). But I'm sure whoever wins the D primary will be the next governor.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #53 on: February 21, 2021, 03:19:29 PM »

Time for some updates:

2021

Virginia: Lean R if Fairfax is the D nominee, Safe D with anyone else.

New Jersey: Safe D

2022

Alabama: Safe R

Alaska: Tossup with Dunleavy, Likely R with any other Republican

Arizona: Likely R

Arkansas: Safe R

California: Lean D if Newsom is the incumbent, Safe D in all other secnarios. In a D v D race featuring Newsom, the race would safe for the person challenging Newsom.

Coiorado: Likely D

Connecticut: Likely D

Florida: Tilt R

Georgia: Tilt R with Kemp, Tilt D with any other Republican not named Marjorie Taylor Greene, Likely D if Taylor Greene is the Republican nominee.

Hawaii: Safe D

Idaho: Safe R

Iowa: Lean R

Kansas: Safe R if a moderate Republican faces Kelly, Lean R if someone from the Conservative wing faces Kelly, Tilt D if Kobach wins the Republican nomination again.

Maine: Lean D

Maryland: Safe D (Flip)

Massachusetts: Likely R if Baker is the Republican nominee, Safe D with any other Republican.

Michigan: Tilt R (Flip)

Nebraska: Safe R

Nevada: Tilt D

New Hampshire: Safe R if Sununnu is the Republican nominee, Tilt R with any other Republican

New Mexico: Lean D

New York: Tilt R if Republicans run a serious candidate and Cuomo is the Democratic nominee, Lean D if Republicans do not run a serious candidate and Cuomo is the Democratic nominee, Safe D in any scenario where Cuomo is not the Democratic nominee.

Ohio: Likely R

Oklahoma: Safe R

Oregon: Likely D

Pennsylvania: Tilt R (Flip)

Rhode Island: Likely D

South Carolina: Safe R

South Dakota: Safe R

Tennessee: Safe R

Texas: Likely R if Beto O'Rourke is the Democratic nominee, Tilt R if a Castro brother is the Democratic nominee, Lean R with any other Democrat.

Vermont: Safe R if Phil Scott is the Republican nominee, Safe D if any other Republican is the nominee.

Wisconsin: Tilt R (Flip)

Wyoming: Safe R

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EastwoodS
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« Reply #54 on: February 21, 2021, 05:09:02 PM »

Time for some updates:

2021

Virginia: Lean R if Fairfax is the D nominee, Safe D with anyone else.

New Jersey: Safe D

2022

Alabama: Safe R

Alaska: Tossup with Dunleavy, Likely R with any other Republican

Arizona: Likely R

Arkansas: Safe R

California: Lean D if Newsom is the incumbent, Safe D in all other secnarios. In a D v D race featuring Newsom, the race would safe for the person challenging Newsom.

Coiorado: Likely D

Connecticut: Likely D

Florida: Tilt R

Georgia: Tilt R with Kemp, Tilt D with any other Republican not named Marjorie Taylor Greene, Likely D if Taylor Greene is the Republican nominee.

Hawaii: Safe D

Idaho: Safe R

Iowa: Lean R

Kansas: Safe R if a moderate Republican faces Kelly, Lean R if someone from the Conservative wing faces Kelly, Tilt D if Kobach wins the Republican nomination again.

Maine: Lean D

Maryland: Safe D (Flip)

Massachusetts: Likely R if Baker is the Republican nominee, Safe D with any other Republican.

Michigan: Tilt R (Flip)

Nebraska: Safe R

Nevada: Tilt D

New Hampshire: Safe R if Sununnu is the Republican nominee, Tilt R with any other Republican

New Mexico: Lean D

New York: Tilt R if Republicans run a serious candidate and Cuomo is the Democratic nominee, Lean D if Republicans do not run a serious candidate and Cuomo is the Democratic nominee, Safe D in any scenario where Cuomo is not the Democratic nominee.

Ohio: Likely R

Oklahoma: Safe R

Oregon: Likely D

Pennsylvania: Tilt R (Flip)

Rhode Island: Likely D

South Carolina: Safe R

South Dakota: Safe R

Tennessee: Safe R

Texas: Likely R if Beto O'Rourke is the Democratic nominee, Tilt R if a Castro brother is the Democratic nominee, Lean R with any other Democrat.

Vermont: Safe R if Phil Scott is the Republican nominee, Safe D if any other Republican is the nominee.

Wisconsin: Tilt R (Flip)

Wyoming: Safe R


I agree with everything but FL, that’s easily a likely R
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #55 on: February 21, 2021, 05:16:37 PM »

Lol John James isn't beating Whitmer
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #56 on: February 21, 2021, 05:28:37 PM »

Duly noted. *re-ignored*
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #57 on: February 21, 2021, 05:36:36 PM »


Ignite you and MI is tilt D
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #58 on: February 22, 2021, 07:23:09 PM »

Alabama: Safe R.
Alaska: Lean R.
Arizona: Tilt R.
Arkansas: Safe R.
California: Safe D.
Colorado: Likely D.
Connecticut: Lean D.
Florida: Safe R.
Georgia: Tossup.
Hawaii: Safe D.
Idaho: Safe R.
Illinois: Likely D.
Iowa: Safe R.
Kansas: Lean R.
Maine: Lean D.
Maryland: Likely D.
Massachusetts: Safe R.
Michigan: Tilt D.
Minnesota: Lean D.
Nebraska: Safe R.
Nevada: Tilt D.
New Hampshire: Safe R with Sununu, Tossup otherwise.
New Jersey: Likely D.
New Mexico: Lean D.
New York: Safe D.
Ohio: Safe R.
Oklahoma: Safe R.
Oregon: Lean D.
Pennsylvania: Tossup.
Rhode Island: Likely D.
South Carolina: Safe R.
South Dakota: Safe R.
Tennessee: Safe R.
Texas: Safe R.
Vermont: Safe R.
Virginia: Likely D.
Wisconsin: Lean R.
Wyoming: Safe R.
this because i am too lazy to make my owned
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #59 on: February 22, 2021, 07:28:44 PM »


"Ignite you?"

Ladies and (mostly) gentlemen, we have a new meme I think!
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #60 on: February 22, 2021, 10:53:30 PM »

California: Lean D if Newsom is the incumbent, Safe D in all other secnarios. In a D v D race featuring Newsom, the race would safe for the person challenging Newsom.

Lol no.

He's not as hated here as non-Californians think
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #61 on: February 22, 2021, 10:58:51 PM »

Agreeing with New York Express, like AGA and Pericles, they never predict bold Predictions for D's, my predictions are bold but as a Dem you have to make maps based on in case D's win, not based on whom you think is gonna win.

Biden is in office and he is the same one that ushered in Obama coalition in 2008/2012 that won us IA, OH, FL, VA, NC, NV and CO .

What if D's do overperform and win

I am waiting for recruits in OH Gov with Cranley and IA Gov Cne Axne or Faunekarr to run against Reynolds or DeWine

We can't let DeWine win by 20 or we won't win Senate race in Ohio against a very bad Josh Mandel
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #62 on: February 23, 2021, 08:06:33 AM »



50% - Lean
70% - Likely
90% - Safe

If none of the New England GOP govs run for re-election

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #63 on: February 23, 2021, 09:56:20 AM »

If D's win GA they would win FL, KS or AZ

I am optimistic about OH Cranley is only 46 yrs old and can win and he is the only one daring enough to take on DeWine
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #64 on: February 23, 2021, 10:36:18 AM »

If D's win GA they would win FL, KS or AZ

I am optimistic about OH Cranley is only 46 yrs old and can win and he is the only one daring enough to take on DeWine

If 2020 showed anything, then that GA is not FL. It's very unlikely DeSantis gets voted out next year, even though he would deserve a loss.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #65 on: February 23, 2021, 01:09:04 PM »

If D's win GA they would win FL, KS or AZ

I am optimistic about OH Cranley is only 46 yrs old and can win and he is the only one daring enough to take on DeWine


Its a bold prediction If Crist gets in Trump only won the state by 300/K, the same as Johnson did.

The Election is next yr and my prediction is based on a robust Recovery not based on this Recession, isn't f course D's will replicate the 291 EC map in a neutral yr
If 2020 showed anything, then that GA is not FL. It's very unlikely DeSantis gets voted out next year, even though he would deserve a loss.
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NYDem
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« Reply #66 on: February 24, 2021, 07:29:48 PM »
« Edited: February 24, 2021, 07:36:47 PM by This space intentionally left blank »

Alabama: Safe R

Alaska: Likely R
- Purely due to RCV

Arizona: Lean R with Ducey, Tilt R otherwise
- I doubt he'll actually get primaried for his feud with Trump in 2020, but if he is he'll be replaced by some Kelli Ward wing loon.

Arkansas: Safe R, Likely R if Hendren runs 3rd party
- This probably goes back to Safe R even if Hendren does run, but I'd like to see some polls on how the vote would split.

California: Safe D

Colorado: Safe D

Connecticut: Likely D
- He's never been that popular, but I doubt he'll be at risk. Maybe if the Rs can find a good candidate.

Florida: Likely R

Georgia: Tilt R with Kemp, Tilt D otherwise
- Same deal as Arizona.

Hawaii: Safe D

Idaho: Safe R

Illinois: Safe D

Iowa: Safe R

Kansas: Lean R
- Uncertain rating.

Maine: Lean D

Maryland: Likely D

Massachusetts: Safe R if Baker runs, Safe D otherwise

Michigan: Tilt D

Minnesota: Lean D, Likely D with Lindell
- Pillow man bad

Nebraska: Safe R

Nevada: Tilt D
- I could easily see this one tilting towards the Rs as we get closer.

New Hampshire: Safe R with Sununu, Lean D otherwise
- NH is a fundamentally Dem leaning state with a popular Rep governor.

New Jersey: Safe D
- It isn't 2009

New Mexico: Likely D

New York: Likely D
- Probably moves back to Safe D no matter what happens, but current scandal has the potential to blow up badly.

Ohio: Safe R

Oklahoma: Safe R

Oregon: Likely D

Pennsylvania: Tilt D
- Dems have a decent bench here, but it is still a Biden Midterm

Rhode Island: Likely D
- This race moved towards Dems after Raymond left

South Carolina: Safe R

South Dakota: Lean R
- My most uncertain rating. Totally dependent on if Sutton runs again. Fact that it's a Biden midterm doesn't really matter given this race was completely uncoupled from national events anyway.

Tennessee: Safe R

Texas: Safe R

Vermont: Safe R with Scott, Safe D otherwise

Virginia: Likely D

Wisconsin: Tilt R

Wyoming: Safe R
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #67 on: February 24, 2021, 08:04:50 PM »

Alabama: Safe R.
Alaska: Lean R.
Arizona: Tilt R.
Arkansas: Safe R.
California: Safe D.
Colorado: Likely D.
Connecticut: Lean D.
Florida: Safe R.
Georgia: Tossup.
Hawaii: Safe D.
Idaho: Safe R.
Illinois: Likely D.
Iowa: Safe R.
Kansas: Lean R.
Maine: Lean D.
Maryland: Likely D.
Massachusetts: Safe R.
Michigan: Tilt D.
Minnesota: Lean D.
Nebraska: Safe R.
Nevada: Tilt D.
New Hampshire: Safe R with Sununu, Tossup otherwise.
New Jersey: Likely D.
New Mexico: Lean D.
New York: Safe D.
Ohio: Safe R.
Oklahoma: Safe R.
Oregon: Lean D.
Pennsylvania: Tossup.
Rhode Island: Likely D.
South Carolina: Safe R.
South Dakota: Safe R.
Tennessee: Safe R.
Texas: Safe R.
Vermont: Safe R.
Virginia: Likely D.
Wisconsin: Lean R.
Wyoming: Safe R.
this because i am too lazy to make my owned

I appreciate that, but in thinking about it I am moving Texas from safe R to likely R now that the energy crisis happened. It gives Democrats something against Abbott even though I don't think it will be enough.
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #68 on: February 24, 2021, 11:11:47 PM »

I won't bother with likely/lean/tilt since we are a year out from the primaries, but here is what i say it's at now.'
https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/D70V
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #69 on: February 25, 2021, 12:47:58 AM »

We get the same spill all the time that WI is R, no it's not, the only person that lost WI was Hillary, it voted for Obama in 2008/12
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Suburban Republican
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« Reply #70 on: February 26, 2021, 02:53:32 PM »
« Edited: February 26, 2021, 03:17:22 PM by Tortilla Soup »

Simple early map showing which party I think will be the winner in each race.

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #71 on: February 26, 2021, 03:08:15 PM »

Common Whitmer losing to John James no
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VAR
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« Reply #72 on: March 02, 2021, 06:12:30 PM »



(literally sane, normal, pays attention to trends, knows his state well)
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #73 on: March 02, 2021, 06:20:46 PM »

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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #74 on: March 02, 2021, 06:24:04 PM »

Time to do this again:

Virginia: Lean R with Fairfax, Safe D with any other Democrat
New Jersey: Safe D

Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Lean R with Dunleavy, Safe R with any other Republican
Arkansas: Safe R
Arizona: Tilt R
California: Lean D with Newsom, Safe D in all other scenarios
Colorado: Likely D
Connecticut: Likely D
Florida: Tilt R
Georgia: Tilt R with Kemp, Tilt D with any other Republican
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Safe D
Iowa: Lean R
Kansas: Safe R with any Republican that isn't Kris Kobach. Lean D with Kobach as the Republican nominee.
Maine: Tilt D
Maryland: Likely D (Flip)
Massachusetts: Tilt D with Baker, Safe D with any other Republican (flip)
Michigan; Tilt R (flip)
Minnesota: Lean D
Nebraska: Safe R
Nevada: Lean D
New Hampshire: Lean R with Sununu, Lean D with another Republican
New Mexico: Lean D
New York: Safe R with Cuomo, Safe D with any other Democrat
Ohio: Lean R
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Safe D
Pennsylvania: Tilt R (Flip)
Rhode Island: Lean D
South Carolina: Safe R
South Dakota: Safe R
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Lean R
Vermont: Lean R with Scott, Safe D with any other Republican
Wisconsin: Tilt R (flip)
Wyoming: Safe R
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