Extremely Early 2021-2022 Gubernatorial Ratings

[JoeInator]

No tossups:

Alabama: Safe R.
Alaska: Likely R.
Arizona: Lean R.
Arkansas: Safe R.
California: Safe D.
Colorado: Safe D.
Connecticut: Likely D.
Florida: Lean R.
Georgia: Tilt R.
Hawaii: Safe D.
Idaho: Safe R.
Illinois: Likely D.
Iowa: Likely R.
Kansas: Tilt R.
Maine: Lean D.
Maryland: Likely D.
Massachusetts: Safe R if Baker runs, Likely D if not.
Michigan: Lean D.
Minnesota: Likely D.
Nebraska: Safe R.
Nevada: Lean D.
New Hampshire: Safe R if Sununu runs, Tilt D if not.
New Jersey: Likely D.
New Mexico: Likely D.
New York: Safe D.
Ohio: Likely R.
Oklahoma: Safe R.
Oregon: Lean D.
Pennsylvania: Tilt D.
Rhode Island: Likely D.
South Carolina: Safe R.
South Dakota: Safe R.
Tennessee: Safe R.
Texas: Likely R.
Vermont: Safe R if Scott runs, Safe D if not.
Virginia: Likely D.
Wisconsin: Tilt D.
Wyoming: Safe R.

[Real Texan Politics]

Hawaii: David Ige (Democratic hold)

Ige's term limited. My guess is the dem nominee will either be Kirk Caldwell (former mayor of Honolulu) or Tulsi Gabbard.

[KaiserDave]

Censor the name people

[Real Texan Politics]

Censor the name people

[KaiserDave]

Censor the name people

David *ge

Oh never mind. (It's a forum meme)

[Real Texan Politics]

Y'all may wanna be a bit more cautious about South Dakota. Kristi Noem only won by 3.4% in 2018, and with her highly controversial covid response plus her approval rating of 39%, and with the possibility of a strong democratic challenger, I wonder if South Dakota has the possibility of being a sleeper flip for the democrats.

I have it as lean R at the moment. Definitely can and will change as it gets closer, but don't overestimate Noem.

[MT Treasurer]

Safe R - AR, AL, TN, TX, NE, OK, WY, ID, OH
Likely R - MA, SC, AK, SD, IA, FL
Lean R - WI (FLIP), KS (FLIP), VT
Toss-up - AZ, NV, MI, PA, NH, ME
Lean D - GA (FLIP), MD (FLIP), MN, NM, CT, RI
Likely D - OR, IL, NJ, VA
Safe D - CA, CO, HI, NY

[jamestroll]

Safe R - AR, AL, TN, TX, NE, OK, WY, ID, OH
Likely R - MA, SC, AK, SD, IA, FL
Lean R - WI (FLIP), KS (FLIP), VT
Toss-up - AZ, NV, MI, PA, NH, ME
Lean D - GA (FLIP), MD (FLIP), MN, NM, CT, RI
Likely D - OR, IL, NJ, VA
Safe D - CA, CO, HI, NY

Why do you have VA as only likely D???

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R - AR, AL, TN, TX, NE, OK, WY, ID, OH
Likely R - MA, SC, AK, SD, IA, FL
Lean R - WI (FLIP), KS (FLIP), VT
Toss-up - AZ, NV, MI, PA, NH, ME
Lean D - GA (FLIP), MD (FLIP), MN, NM, CT, RI
Likely D - OR, IL, NJ, VA
Safe D - CA, CO, HI, NY

Why do you have VA as only likely D???

MT Treasurer also thinks that Ron Johnson isn't DOA and Tony Evers is and the irony is that both of them are old, and if Johnson can win a second term so can Tony Evers.

Just like the 2024 board lights up that Biden whom will be 82 is too old to be Prez but Trump 78 can be Prez, the R irony

[Sir Mohamed]

With tossups:




No tossups:



All ratings assumes Baker (R-MA), Scott (R-VT) and Sununu (R-NH) run again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gov races








Sen races dream maps split voting power


Assuming Tim Ryan runs

[VAR]

Y'all may wanna be a bit more cautious about South Dakota. Kristi Noem only won by 3.4% in 2018, and with her highly controversial covid response plus her approval rating of 39%, and with the possibility of a strong democratic challenger, I wonder if South Dakota has the possibility of being a sleeper flip for the democrats.

I have it as lean R at the moment. Definitely can and will change as it gets closer, but don't overestimate Noem.

Source?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI and PA aren't gonna vote to the right of the nation but AZ and KS will

[Sir Mohamed]

WI and PA aren't gonna vote to the right of the nation but AZ and KS will

Gov races are a different story, still. Kelly is popular in KS while PA is an open seat. It's possible Kelly wins reelection while a GOPers takes the Governor's Mansion in Harrisburg.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI and PA aren't gonna vote to the right of the nation but AZ and KS will

Gov races are a different story, still. Kelly is popular in KS while PA is an open seat. It's possible Kelly wins reelection while a GOPers takes the Governor's Mansion in Harrisburg.

I doubt it Wolf and the D's have a 50 percent approval ratings and we won PA by 17 pts in 2018

[Real Texan Politics]

So I know I already posted a map not too long ago, but I've went ahead and changed it up a bit since some of my ratings may have been too far off.



Now to explain the stuff...

Iowa was likely R in my previous map, but I have moved it down to tossup due to Reynolds having one of the lowest approval ratings of all governors during the pandemic, something that could haunt her in her re-election bid. Even as of late last year, her approval rating was only 26%.

Both Pennsylvania and Michigan are likely D, though I'm a tad bit more confident in democrats holding Pennsylvania than Michigan just due to Whitmer's covid response. Although she's still very popular in Michigan so she shouldn't have a big problem at re-election, but it could be surprisingly competitive.

I made the mistake of having Arizona as likely R. Maybe I'll regret changing it eventually, but Arizona is now a tossup until we know the candidates for both sides.

Moved South Carolina from safe to likely just because I don't see McMaster's margin of victory being 15%+, and I wonder if Joe Cunningham may make it a bit more competitive.

Rhode Island is lean D but I could move it back to likely D if McKee is popular enough (as opposed to Raimondo). Of course McKee only becomes governor if Raimondo is confirmed by the senate. Always have to prepare for the unexpected.

Y'all may wanna be a bit more cautious about South Dakota. Kristi Noem only won by 3.4% in 2018, and with her highly controversial covid response plus her approval rating of 39%, and with the possibility of a strong democratic challenger, I wonder if South Dakota has the possibility of being a sleeper flip for the democrats.

I have it as lean R at the moment. Definitely can and will change as it gets closer, but don't overestimate Noem.

Source?

https://247wallst.com/special-report/2021/01/15/the-most-and-least-popular-governors-during-the-pandemic/10/

Noem is ranked at 45 on the list (from most to least popular). I believe the approval polls were taken in fall 2020 so it's definitely possible that it changed.

[MT Treasurer]

Safe R - AR, AL, TN, TX, NE, OK, WY, ID, OH
Likely R - MA, SC, AK, SD, IA, FL
Lean R - WI (FLIP), KS (FLIP), VT
Toss-up - AZ, NV, MI, PA, NH, ME
Lean D - GA (FLIP), MD (FLIP), MN, NM, CT, RI
Likely D - OR, IL, NJ, VA
Safe D - CA, CO, HI, NY

Why do you have VA as only likely D???

Off-year, non-federal election under a D president with potentially unique local dynamics/issues. I do think it’s very close to Safe and it’s possible there’s no path for the GOP here regardless of candidates/environment/voter fatigue/etc., but I rated it Likely out of an abundance of caution. It’s the same reason I only rated MD Lean D (I’d be surprised if Republicans managed to hold it).

[Chips]

There's a small chance VA could be competitive. Likely D out of caution like MT Treasurer said.

[dw93]

How come so many are bullish about MA staying Republican? Isn't Charlie Baker term limited?

[Roll Roons]

How come so many are bullish about MA staying Republican? Isn't Charlie Baker term limited?

MA doesn't have term limits, and he'd be unbeatable if he ran again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The only person that can win is Joe Kennedy and he isn't running

[treyton209]

Initial Inside Elections ratings

insideelections.com/ratings/governor

Here is the map: 270towin.com/2022-governor-election/RNGd

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The ratings aren't that important now, but Kelly can win and Evers isn't DOA

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Seeing a bunch of 'Lean D Oregon' predictions. Is there something bubbling over there or is it another "Oregon is bound to be purple any day now" scenario that seems to pop up every election?

(Speaking as someone who may be Portland-bound by November 2022)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am rooting for Charlie Crist, DeSantis isn't strong with AA that's why he almost lost to Gillian and Crist has embraced Cuban community

Crist in 21 mnths can beat DeSantis