Most likely New England governorship to change party (2022)

[beesley]

Taking into account all factors, which New England governorship is the most likely to switch party control in 2022? Have your say.

[Oryxslayer]

Tossup between Connecticut which has the votes to elect a Republican but will likely blow it by nominating a Trumpist unsuitable to Fairfield, New Hampshire which will have a open race after Sununu jumps for Senate, and Massachusetts where the only thing more enticing than a non-relevant GOP figurehead governor is a Kennedy governor - and he is looking at the race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Hampshire, Ayotte is week in polling with the Senate polls so if she is nominated for Gov, she can lose

MA is second, Baker can lose, we haven't seen any polls and he has been Gov so many times already. I wouldn't underestimate D's in this race

[Coldstream]

I’d say Massachusetts but it’s a good question and really any of these could change hands. (Vermont only if Scott stood down obviously).

[SnowLabrador]

My guess is Connecticut, for Lamont is pretty unpopular.

[Xing]

Connecticut for now, could be New Hampshire if Sununu runs for Senate, but if Baker steps down, it immediately becomes Massachusetts.

[coloradocowboi]

Massachusetts because it's increasingly likely that Baker won't run again

[NYDem]

NH because I think Sununu will jump into the Senate race. I wasn't sure how likely Baker is to run again, but if Baker retires the MA race goes from safe R to safe D.

[MT Treasurer]

1. ME
2. NH
3. RI
4. CT

(if Baker steps down, MA moves to #1)

[President Johnson]

My guess is Connecticut, for Lamont is pretty unpopular.

Didn't he regain a lot because of his Covid handling?

I think Maine is more likely to flip than Connecticut at this point. If Malloy could win reelection in a Republican year, Lamont should as well.

[mpbond]

My guess is Connecticut, for Lamont is pretty unpopular.

The last poll I found (Sacred Heart, October 2020) has him at 53% overall approval and 70% approval of his handling of coronavirus. That's hardly unpopular. In fact, Connecticut governors tend to be really unpopular, so he's doing incredibly well compared to past governors who have been reelected with approvals in the 30s. The vaccine rollout in Connecticut has also been incredibly smooth and quick, so I think his approval may have gone up in the past few months, although there doesn't seem to be any polls recently. 2022 is of course a lifetime away in politics, but Lamont is in a very strong position as of right now and by no means unpopular.
Edit: link to the poll: https://www.courant.com/politics/hc-pol-new-poll-biden-ahead-in-connecticut-20201029-6erzswwuyjb7jephc4jlaq7o5i-story.html