DC Al Fine
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« on: November 22, 2020, 06:58:18 AM » |
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I'd say they're less nervous about Texas because of Texas. Florida can be attributed to Cuban-specific issues. Texas Hispanics are harder to ignore.
If we assume NC Yankee's hypothesis plays out (and I think 2020 confirms this), we'll eventually see a Sun Belt Democrats vs Rust Belt GOP alignment at the presidential level. The problem for the GOP is that the Sun Belt is realigning much faster than the Rust Belt. It's one thing to trade AZ and GA for PA and WI, but losing Texas would put the GOP at quite the disadvantage.
While, I think in the very long run, the GOP will lose Texas, the Hispanic trend buys the GOP time to:
1) Continue efforts to bring along additional states to offset the loss of Texas.
2) Get some close results and hopefully scare the state GOP into contesting the state properly like Florida.
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