I'd say they're less nervous about Texas because of Texas. Florida can be attributed to Cuban-specific issues. Texas Hispanics are harder to ignore.
If we assume NC Yankee's hypothesis plays out (and I think 2020 confirms this), we'll eventually see a Sun Belt Democrats vs Rust Belt GOP alignment at the presidential level. The problem for the GOP is that the Sun Belt is realigning much faster than the Rust Belt. It's one thing to trade AZ and GA for PA and WI, but losing Texas would put the GOP at quite the disadvantage.
While, I think in the very long run, the GOP will lose Texas, the Hispanic trend buys the GOP time to:
1) Continue efforts to bring along additional states to offset the loss of Texas.
2) Get some close results and hopefully scare the state GOP into contesting the state properly like Florida.
It's tempting to say this but back in 2000 we would have thought Florida would become a D leaning state because of demographics.
For WI, what if we get a blue Waukesha, Ozaukee? Obviously in the next decade it's unlikely they go blue outright but people shouldn't just assume recent suburban white trends reverse. What if rural WI WWC becomes a bit stubborn for the GOP like New England has been and only slowly moves right.
My point is we don't know the future and a populist like Hawley could totally flop here and places like suburban Detroit, Grand Rapids, Philly, Pitt and MI, WI, PA remain blue while Hispanic working class areas in NV, FL, TX move red. AZ would be very interesting in this scenario with counter trends and it might hurt GOP in NC (GA hard to see not being blue no matter what).
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