Texas is definitely a must-win for any GOP nominee, but I'm less worried about it now than before the election. Without the big RGV swing towards Trump, he wins it by like 2 rather than the 6 points he actually won it by.
The real question is whether the RGV swing is permanent (educational realignment) or whether it largely reverts back. Or Trump had a unique appeal to these voters.
I am probably one of the few people who thinks it’s a long term trend.
It’s not just Trump, it appears that some of the Texas House districts had swings to the GOP in 2018 compared to 2016. Unless you buy that Hillary was the greatest candidate on Earth for the RGV.
Luckily the suburbs would probably outweigh the RGV swing anyways if current trends continue, but yeah I don’t see a bounce back and people calling it a one-time thing are usually partisan hacks who want to cope with the fact that they don’t have a monopoly on the Latino vote.
Plus with the education divide growing, why should anyone be shocked that a highly uneducated region is swinging R, even if it makes no seemingly logical sense?
Looks like these voters finally bought into the culture war stuff. Oh well, they can hurt themselves I guess like the West Virginians, lol.