Will the GOP continue to see suburban erosion in the post-Trump era?

[Scottholes 2.0]

I could see the WOW counties in WI snapping back to the GOP, but I hope I'm wrong because WI won't be competitive anymore if that happens.

[Roll Roons]

Probably not to pre-2016 levels, but you'll see some swing towards Republicans, particularly downballot. We already kind of saw it this year, with a lot of the 2018 suburban flips either going back (CA-39, CA-48, OK-05, SC-01) or being much closer than they were in 2018 (IL-14, MI-11, NJ-07, NJ-11, PA-17, TX-07).

NJ and VA will be the first real test.

[MATTROSE94]

President Ron DeSantis probably blunts most of the swing amongst suburban voters to the Republican party by presenting Trumpism in a more compassionate and polished package.

[Hope For A New Era]

Yes. This is how a realignment works.

There may be a brief bounce-back, but the overall movement in suburbs during the 2020s will be toward the Democrats. I suppose it's a two steps left, one step right kind of movement.

These trends have been ongoing since the Bush presidency. No reason for them to stop now.


Notice, by the way, that the southern trend toward Republicans began during the Kennedy/Johnson presidency and really got going under Nixon, and if you look at American party systems historically, those match up to Bush and Obama. Just saying.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I expect most suburbs to trend Republican in 2024, probably getting back roughly to 2016 levels, maybe a couple points to the right of that.  What happens in 2028 and 2032 is unpredictable and depends on numerous factors yet to be decided.  Contrary to popular belief, trends aren't inevitable and depend on decisions parties make of whose interests to prioritize.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Yes, just like Democrats have seen erosion among working-class voters in the post-Obama era. A lot of these trends preceded their presidency and will likely continue afterward.

[Vosem]

It looks really clear based on 2020 downballot patterns and normal midterm behavior that there'll be some resurgence in 2022. Beyond that depends on the candidates and what issues/demographics remain prominent at all; there are some "suburban" or even "urban" counties which swung to Trump this year since after all they are also minority-heavy counties.

My bet would be no, especially since my read of the situation is that Trump himself is likely to return in 2024, but I'm not very certain of this.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

They'll get a dead cat bounce in 2022 but will continue to at least trend away from the GOP in 2024.

[kwabbit]

They'll probably trend Republican in 2022 then just go back to trending Democratic. I imagine with a nominee that's a good fit for the suburb they could get 2016 performance or a little better, but they're not reaching Romney 2012 numbers. Any amount of improvement would help Republicans, however, especially if they can keep the WWC gains.