GA-SEN - InsiderAdvantage/FOX5 Atlanta: Warnock (+1), Ossoff and Perdue Tied

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump not conceding and contesting a lost Election is hurting Rs downballot, D's will sweep

[Frenchrepublican]

InsiderAdvantage poll for Georgia on Nov 1: Trump+2
Georgia final: ~Biden+0.3

InsiderAdvantage poll for Pennsylvania on Oct 31: Trump+1
Pennsylvania final: ~Biden+1

InsiderAdvantage poll for North Carolina on Oct 31: Trump+4
North Carolina final: ~Trump+1.5

So this pollster seems to have a habit of underestimating Democrats. Just saying.

It's possible, but keep in mind that most of the Insider advantage polls which were published during the cycle were done on the behlaf of a conservative PAC, it's not the case of this one.

[Frenchrepublican]

I don't think warnock will be able to survive the oppo dumps.

He is quite left wing for a state like georgia.

Sure, but in GA nearly every Biden voters is either a African American or a white liberal, so it's unlikely that he will lose a lost of ground among them.

[Frenchrepublican]

Rs need to be careful not to take the suburbanites that flipped the state to Biden for granted in these runoffs. Perdue and Loeffler's strategy so far seems to be a (Trump) base turnout strategy, but I think they 1) underestimate the high voting rates of white college educated voters in this state, 2) mistakenly assume that we are all just automatic R votes in the runoff.

On a personal note, if Rs are serious about getting my vote during the runoffs, step one would be to graciously concede the election and stop spewing out all this nonsense about fraud without proof that can withstand legal scrutiny. Step 2 would be to propose a positive vision forward and not just brag about how obstructionist they will be if they win.

Step 2 also applies to the Democrats.

How so ?

[Pericles]

this is lean R - the dems won't come out like in the election

Not disputing that both could very well go R, but don't you think that the Democratic coalition in GA shifting to suburban voters (in the fastest-growing counties, both in population & swings to Democrats) who turn out in pretty much every election will have a decent impact?

To be fair, most Georgia college-educated whites still probably vote Republican. The difference between them and non college-educated whites is less than the difference between them and non-whites, so while turnout drops on both sides Democrats probably have the tougher challenge (plus they already start slightly behind).

[Hope For A New Era]

This election is 100% turnout.

Good thing that's Abrams's specialty.

[wbrocks67]

These races are both pure tossups, which this poll confirms. Anyone trying to say otherwise is kidding themselves. Turnout may ultimately favor one side, but at the base of it, it is a true tossup that could go either way.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs don't want Crt packing or Filibuster reform, that's why they don't want D's to succeed in the GA Runoffs and 2022 midterms, it's pretty obvious that's their thinking.

That's why James pool think Rs are gonna have 254 seats in 2023 and unemployment is not at 10, it's at 6.6

I bet Joe Manchin changes his tune when Ds get 51/49 majority, Schumer is gonna have a talk with him

[VAR]

Is this the new gold standard? 

[Horus]

Any poll showing Perdue tied or trailing is certified junk.  You can chose to believe it but you will be in the same position the polls put you in a couple weeks ago.  I won’t be posting much as I’m burnt out after the last few months, but Perdue is a LOCK.

Buzz is moving GA to safe R

0-1 so far.

Buzz went 49/50 in the election, so lets not act like I'm some fraud.

We had the exact same map actually. But Georgia is changing. Warnock is favored and Ossoff is 50/50.

[SCNCmod]

BTW, we have actual results to compare this poll to, and I find it highly unlikely perdue underperforms his actual vote % in the jungle.

I don't think Perdue has been in a jungle election.  That was Warnock & Loeffler.  Unless you are referring to an election other than 2020?

[SCNCmod]

I don't think warnock will be able to survive the oppo dumps.

He is quite left wing for a state like georgia.

Warnock has the chance to be the 1st AA Senator from Geogia, which- on its own, will likely ensure high AA turnout.  But the ads against him will help ensure this as well...

Here is a quote from the pollster (which addresses the oppo dumps against Warnock):

InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery said, “The challenge for the two Republicans will be how to hold on to the over ten percent level of support they have from African American voters, while at the same time trying to convert suburban Atlanta white voters who have drifted away from the GOP.”

Towery said the current ad campaign by Sen. Loeffler against Rev. Warnock may have opened a can of worms that could lead to an erosion of that fragile level of support.

“The two Republican campaigns have decided to run in tandem and as a result, any mistake by one campaign may impact both,” Towery said. “Warnock will be the centerpiece of attempting to drive African American vote higher than it was in the General Election, which is essential for a win for both Ossoff and him.”

[forsythvoter]

Rs need to be careful not to take the suburbanites that flipped the state to Biden for granted in these runoffs. Perdue and Loeffler's strategy so far seems to be a (Trump) base turnout strategy, but I think they 1) underestimate the high voting rates of white college educated voters in this state, 2) mistakenly assume that we are all just automatic R votes in the runoff.

On a personal note, if Rs are serious about getting my vote during the runoffs, step one would be to graciously concede the election and stop spewing out all this nonsense about fraud without proof that can withstand legal scrutiny. Step 2 would be to propose a positive vision forward and not just brag about how obstructionist they will be if they win.

Step 2 also applies to the Democrats.

How so ?

Less twitter, more focus on helping the Biden administration transition. It really makes me nervous that the next administration is going to walk in Day 1 not knowing what our country's national security threats are or what the Covid response has been. While I might otherwise prefer a R Senate with moderates calling the shots, Perdue and Loeffler continuing to defend Trump's antics would be a red line for me.

[Sir Mohamed]

As I said, I won't take polling seriously, although they were relatively accurate in GA. I just don't want to get my hopes up and then be disappointed again. Instead, I will regard it as likely we're going to have a 52-48 R senate coming January. We may get lucky and have Warnock winning and staying in for 2 years. Not sure that will change much. Either way McConnell is Majority leader.

[Continential]

Lean R and Tossup for Perdue and Loeffer's seats

[wbrocks67]

As I said, I won't take polling seriously, although they were relatively accurate in GA. I just don't want to get my hopes up and then be disappointed again. Instead, I will regard it as likely we're going to have a 52-48 R senate coming January. We may get lucky and have Warnock winning and staying in for 2 years. Not sure that will change much. Either way McConnell is Majority leader.

True, but 51-49 is still certainly better than 53-47 it was. At least that gives the GOP considerably less wiggle room.

[MT Treasurer]

I do’t buy that GA-S is far more likely to flip than GA-R, that there will be a split decision here, or that Perdue will even run that far ahead of Loeffler. (not basing this on this or any other poll, though)

[Xing]

At this point, unless polls start to show Warnock and Ossoff leading by several points (and possibly even then), I'm going to predict Perdue and Loeffler win.

[2016]

There is absolutely no way that Democrats will win both Runoffs! As I said I can see Loeffler potentially losing but not Perdue.

It would be nice if Edison does some Exit Polling for these two Seats. I know it's a faint hope but I love to see that.

Any Democrat in GA needs between 28-30 % of the White Vote to win. I assume the White Vote will be higher in the Runoff compared to Nov. 3.

[Alben Barkley]

this is lean R - the dems won't come out like in the election

The Trumpers won't either.

[Alben Barkley]

Any poll showing Perdue tied or trailing is certified junk.  You can chose to believe it but you will be in the same position the polls put you in a couple weeks ago.  I won’t be posting much as I’m burnt out after the last few months, but Perdue is a LOCK.

Buzz is moving GA to safe R

0-1 so far.

Buzz went 49/50 in the election, so lets not act like I'm some fraud.

Is Buzz Bob Dole?

[wbrocks67]

this is lean R - the dems won't come out like in the election

The Trumpers won't either.

To me, the Rs have more to fall bc the likelihood of Trumpers not coming out is great. Without Trump on the ballot, those low propensity voters don't have a reason to come out. Not to mention, college+ whites tend to come out more for off-year elections and Ds have obviously done very well them in GA recently.

Not to mention, Trump antipathy is still high given how he is behaving and the fact he is still president and will be on 1/5.

[MATTROSE94]

Perdue +10 and Loeffler +8 is more likely.

[Bootes Void]

I'm gonna these seats are tilt R for the time being, let's see in January

[SCNCmod]

There is absolutely no way that Democrats will win both Runoffs! As I said I can see Loeffler potentially losing but not Perdue.

It would be nice if Edison does some Exit Polling for these two Seats. I know it's a faint hope but I love to see that.

Any Democrat in GA needs between 28-30 % of the White Vote to win. I assume the White Vote will be higher in the Runoff compared to Nov. 3.

I think the exact opposite.  I think Black voter % will be higher in the runoff... b/c Warnock is on the ticket and has the chance to be the 1st AA senator from Georgia.  No other runoff has ever had an AA on the ballot.  And all of the Loeffler racial attack ads... are going to backfire- they will ensure high AA turnout for Warnock (and thus Ossoff).

The one thing I think this poll got right... there seems to be almost no splitting of the ticket.