Leger: Trump +6, Pence +4 without Trump (Includes voters of all parties)
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  Leger: Trump +6, Pence +4 without Trump (Includes voters of all parties)
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Author Topic: Leger: Trump +6, Pence +4 without Trump (Includes voters of all parties)  (Read 2466 times)
TheTide
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« Reply #25 on: November 17, 2020, 07:04:55 PM »

This poll would have us believe 16% of Trump’s supporters second choice is Romney or Kasich

Why is that unbelievable? Most real voters don't fit into the neat categories devised on places such as this.
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #26 on: November 17, 2020, 07:06:46 PM »

I honestly think that Romney, if he ran, could do pretty well in a primary. While all the other candidates tried to out-Trump each other, he could carve out a niche by dominating among the significant minority of GOP primary voters who are not that into Trump, standing out against a fractured field.

Significant miniority? What significant miniority? All 10% of them?

Even 10% is enough to gain some traction if you have 15 candidates splitting up the pro-Trump vote. And anyway, 10% is just the number who are positively anti-Trump, there are others who approved of him because of the tax cuts, judges etc., but would prefer a more establishment fiscal conservative. The donor class would surely coalesce around Romney in a way they never did around a single candidate in 2016.
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #27 on: November 17, 2020, 08:20:54 PM »

Trump up by six among Republicans? Yeah, polling has become an embarrassing joke at this point.
As was pointed out earlier, this isn’t among Republicans. It’s among all voters. If you only include Republicans, Trump leads Pence by 23

Fair point. But I'd still expect a much wider lead.

Perhaps some Trump supporters take the view that Trump has won the 2020 election and thus can't run again in 2024...
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
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« Reply #28 on: November 17, 2020, 09:39:21 PM »

Pollsters really doubling down on never being taken seriously again.
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One Term Floridian
swamiG
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« Reply #29 on: November 17, 2020, 09:43:21 PM »

Let the polling industry go bankrupt. Seriously.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #30 on: November 17, 2020, 10:13:41 PM »

Trump up by six among Republicans? Yeah, polling has become an embarrassing joke at this point.
As was pointed out earlier, this isn’t among Republicans. It’s among all voters. If you only include Republicans, Trump leads Pence by 23

Fair point. But I'd still expect a much wider lead.

I'm not sure why this result is so unbelievable.  Pence is also popular among Republican voters.
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republican1993
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« Reply #31 on: November 17, 2020, 10:15:03 PM »

i hope for romney
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redjohn
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« Reply #32 on: November 17, 2020, 10:15:51 PM »

Trump 45% among Republicans is severely low balling him. I don't think he's at the 95% support that he was for the 2020 primary cycle, but he's obviously the favorite of the vast majority of Republican primary voters (70%+, easily)
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It’s so Joever
Forumlurker161
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« Reply #33 on: November 18, 2020, 02:27:29 PM »

Likelier results:

Trump 55
Pence 24
Romney 9
Other 12
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #34 on: November 18, 2020, 02:33:37 PM »

They need to stop including Trump, he is gonna be prosecuted
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RFayette
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« Reply #35 on: November 19, 2020, 02:38:55 PM »

Trump 45% among Republicans is severely low balling him. I don't think he's at the 95% support that he was for the 2020 primary cycle, but he's obviously the favorite of the vast majority of Republican primary voters (70%+, easily)

I think a lot of this is just the artifact of having a lot of options.  As we saw in 2016, Trump's % improved as other candidates dropped out in the primaries.  I do agree that in any conceivable one-on-one matchup, Trump would clear 70% in a GOP primary. 
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Inmate Trump
GWBFan
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« Reply #36 on: January 29, 2021, 04:37:25 PM »

If Romney runs, I’ll be voting for him in the GOP primary.

I won’t vote for him or any Republican in the general, but D’s need to vote strategically in the GOP primary to avoid having another potential dictator in the WH.
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Chips
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« Reply #37 on: February 01, 2021, 11:10:09 PM »

2012 all over again with Romney in 2nd place?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #38 on: February 01, 2021, 11:20:43 PM »

2012 all over again with Romney in 2nd place?

Again, the #s in the OP aren't right, because they're polling all voters, including Democrats.  The *real* numbers are the #s amongst Republicans only:

If you limit it Republicans only, then it’s:

Trump 45%
Pence 22%
Romney 8%
Cruz 7%
Rubio 5%
Carlson 4%
Haley 4%
Kasich 2%
Pompeo 2%
Rick Scott 2%
Santorum 1%

If Trump doesn’t run:

Pence 44%
Cruz 14%
Romney 11%
Carlson 6%
Haley 6%
Rubio 6%
Pompeo 3%
Santorum 3%
Kasich 2%
Rick Scott 2%
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