More likely to win reelection, Laura Kelly or Andy Beshear?

[MT Treasurer]

I think you could make a good case for either one here, actually.

[Xing]

I'll actually say Beshear, since Kelly's race is more likely to be influenced by the national environment than Beshear's.

[Skill and Chance]

Has to be Kelly after Kansas trended that hard, right?

[Hope For A New Era]

Hard to say. Kelly has trends working strongly in her favor and a fair amount of crossover support, while Beshear has extremely high popularity because of the pandemic and is second only to Rocky Adkins in level of fit for his state. They're both good campaigners and have run effective administrations.

Probably just about equally likely, honestly. I'd rate both as Lean D for now.

If you put a gun to my head I'd say Kelly, as Kansas didn't swing as hard against Democrats during Obama's presidency as Kentucky did.

Kelly's electoral success and continued popularity is still a mystery to me. I really don't understand her appeal. I would still vote for her, obviously, but I'm not sure why so many people who aren't partisan Dems like I am did. There's no excitement at all. She was running against Kobach, but that doesn't explain a six-point victory that probably could have been even bigger without Orman acting as spoiler.
I guess I shouldn't question success.

[SnowLabrador]

Kelly. Kansas is a red state, but not as red as Kentucky.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Laura Kelly, KS reelects it's Gov, but KY usually want a change after 4 yrs

But, we don't know the long term impact of the loss of Bollier has to n Kelly, Bollier UNDERPERFORMED
 

[Frenchrepublican]

I think you could make a good case for either one here, actually.

It really depends of who they will face, obviously the national political climate will matter too (neither would have won had Clinton been president in 2018 / 2019).

[TDAS04]

I don't know.  I'm guessing Beshear, because of what Xing said.

[Alben Barkley]

Laura Kelly, KS reelects it's Gov, but KY usually want a change after 4 yrs

But, we don't know the long term impact of the loss of Bollier has to n Kelly, Bollier UNDERPERFORMED
 

Historically that's only been true of Republican KY governors.

In fact, KS has far more party turnover historically in its governorship.

[NewYorkExpress]

Both are going to lose (unless Kobach or Steve Watkins is the Republican nominee in Kansas). It's just a matter of who loses by more.

[bagelman]

KS is trending in the right (left) direction. KY gave the scion of a political dynasty a 5000 vote margin against a loathed Mr Burns who wanted to gut the public school system.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Kelly and its not close.

[ElectionsGuy]

This is actually pretty tough selection. I'll reluctantly go with Kelly.

[Hope For A New Era]

Laura Kelly, KS reelects it's Gov, but KY usually want a change after 4 yrs

But, we don't know the long term impact of the loss of Bollier has to n Kelly, Bollier UNDERPERFORMED
 

Historically that's only been true of Republican KY governors.

In fact, KS has far more party turnover historically in its governorship.

From 1958 onward neither party has held the governorship longer than eight consecutive years. I suppose that's the magic of the Kansas three-party system.

[walleye26]

Kelly because there are moderate Republicans in KS that will vote for Democratic governors. Johnson County is also drifting left.