Muslim Democrat vs Militant Atheist Republican

[wimp]

ignoring how they got the nomination, how would they do in the GE?

no third parties

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The race might decided by how the Muslim handles the issue of his/her religion. If they do it Kennedy 1960 style then they would probably be narrowly favored.

[bagelman]

Muslim Democrat vs Militant Atheist Republican

You've stacked it against the GOP candidate with that phrase.

Religion is generally more important for the GOP base than the DEM base. They were able to rationalize Trump, but a Republican who is openly and aggressively atheist may be a bridge too far for many. They may not vote, and Georgia and North Carolina are handed to Democrats on a silver platter.

All the Democrat really has to do is act like a normal person and avoid traditional Islamic dress and he wins.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Keith Ellison vs. John Dule?

Easy Ellison landslide.

[Agonized-Statism]

A lot of New Atheists went on to join the alt-right. We're past the days of Muslims being the #1 target for discrimination, or even being a big part of right-wing rhetoric, but they would still have an uphill battle for the presidency. If the Bible Belt could get behind a Mormon and a hedonistic business magnate, they would have no trouble backing a New Atheist using racist appeals. The religious right is dead.

If the Muslim Democrat is an "assimilated" neoliberal Sadiq Khan type, they win.

[Kuumo]

I could see the atheist Republican running a campaign similar to Trump's 2016 campaign and energizing less religious non-college white voters in the Rust Belt and upper New England and winning WI, PA, NH, and ME in a 2020's electorate. At the same time, he might have issues with turnout among evangelicals in the South who worry that he won't appoint socially conservative judges, allowing the Muslim Democrat to win GA and NC (fear-mongering about socialism is enough to win FL). The Muslim Democrat would probably run a campaign similar to Biden's 2020 campaign targeted primarily at college-educated suburban whites and African Americans. He would easily win NE-02 and probably win AZ and MI, in the latter benefitting slightly from high turnout and support from the Arab American community in the Detroit area. Hispanics are a bit of a wild-card; I could see them supporting the Muslim Democrat at Obama or Hillary Clinton levels due to fear-mongering about immigration and being turned off by an atheist candidate, but it's also possible that the low-propensity Hispanics who voted for Trump in 2020 also turn out for the atheist Republican. The result would be a narrow win for the Muslim Democrat.

Muslim Democrat: ~281 EV, ~50% PV
Atheist Republican: ~257 EV, ~47% PV

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Largely agree with Kuumo. I think this matchup would also make Asians a more significant swing vote than they otherwise would be, due to 1) the D candidate's relative strength in the New South, 2) possible rise of a communitarian "Religious Left", and 3) the likely appeal of a more secular right among more anti-establishment-minded Asians.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

A lot of New Atheists went on to join the alt-right. We're past the days of Muslims being the #1 target for discrimination, or even being a big part of right-wing rhetoric, but they would still have an uphill battle for the presidency. If the Bible Belt could get behind a Mormon and a hedonistic business magnate, they would have no trouble backing a New Atheist using racist appeals. The religious right is dead.

If the Muslim Democrat is an "assimilated" neoliberal Sadiq Khan type, they win.

Also I feel like the only way a militant atheist wins the GOP nomination is if he goes all in on giving them something else they want and the easiest thing would be unfiltered racism to a more extreme degree then even Trump.