Alaska's partisan lean in presidential elections

[prag_prog]

Alaska's partisan lean in presidential elections since 1996 (didn't start from 1992 due to significant 3rd party vote) -

1996: R+26
2000: R+31
2004: R+23
2008: R+30
2012: R+18
2016: R+17
2020: R+14 (likely to be somewhere in between R+13 & R+15 once after full counting is done)
 
Biden also is on track to receive the highest share for a Dem in Alaska since 1960's.
 
I don't know much about Alaskan politics. Only thing I know is that Anchorage is becoming more blue with each cycle. For those who have insight on Alaskan politics, what's the reason behind Alaska's trend towards Dems in the last decade? Is this trend sustainable enough for Alaska to become a battleground state by say 2036?

[Skill and Chance]

I think it's a combination of environmentalists increasingly moving in + Anchorage being an ancestral R metro area primed to flip like Phoenix and the Atlanta suburbs?

[kwabbit]

Alaska's becoming more diverse and educated with each passing cycle. I believe it was Nate Cohn who said Alaska is just a dark, cold sunbelt state in its political trends.

[TopShelfGoal]

What the percentages hide is the small raw vote difference. This year AK will be decided by just around ~36k votes. Its small size makes it extra sensitive to population shifts. If I were a D strategist, I would be encouraging Biden to provide incentives for Big Tech to open satellite offices in Anchorage and have some government contractors to open up locations up there as well.

[It’s so Joever]

What the percentages hide is the small raw vote difference. This year AK will be decided by just around ~36k votes. Its small size makes it extra sensitive to population shifts. If I were a D strategist, I would be encouraging Biden to provide incentives for Big Tech to open satellite offices in Anchorage and have some government contractors to open up locations up there as well.

He also should do it in Idaho.

[MT Treasurer]

I think AK has the biggest potential to turn into the VT of our generation/-s in terms of undergoing a dramatic long-term political shift which completely changes the way we think about the state.

[MillennialModerate]

Alaska's partisan lean in presidential elections since 1996 (didn't start from 1992 due to significant 3rd party vote) -

1996: R+26
2000: R+31
2004: R+23
2008: R+30
2012: R+18
2016: R+17
2020: R+14 (likely to be somewhere in between R+13 & R+15 once after full counting is done)
 
Is this trend sustainable enough for Alaska to become a battleground state by say 2036?

2000: R+31
2004: R+23
2008: R+30 (Palin)
2012: R+18
2016: R+17
2020: R+10

That’s an obvious trend

I think you could see it a true tossup in 2028

[KaiserDave]

I will live to see Blueaska. What a blessed thing.

[prag_prog]

Alaska's partisan lean in presidential elections since 1996 (didn't start from 1992 due to significant 3rd party vote) -

1996: R+26
2000: R+31
2004: R+23
2008: R+30
2012: R+18
2016: R+17
2020: R+14 (likely to be somewhere in between R+13 & R+15 once after full counting is done)
 
Is this trend sustainable enough for Alaska to become a battleground state by say 2036?

2000: R+31
2004: R+23
2008: R+30 (Palin)
2012: R+18
2016: R+17
2020: R+10

That’s an obvious trend

I think you could see it a true tossup in 2028

I forgot about Palin. It makes sense now why 2008 didn't follow the trend

[EastwoodS]

What the percentages hide is the small raw vote difference. This year AK will be decided by just around ~36k votes. Its small size makes it extra sensitive to population shifts. If I were a D strategist, I would be encouraging Biden to provide incentives for Big Tech to open satellite offices in Anchorage and have some government contractors to open up locations up there as well.

He also should do it in Idaho.

No keep your bullsh**t in your blue hell holes

[It’s so Joever]

What the percentages hide is the small raw vote difference. This year AK will be decided by just around ~36k votes. Its small size makes it extra sensitive to population shifts. If I were a D strategist, I would be encouraging Biden to provide incentives for Big Tech to open satellite offices in Anchorage and have some government contractors to open up locations up there as well.

He also should do it in Idaho.

No keep your bullsh**t in your blue hell holes

Sir, we prefer the term “cesspools”.

[DabbingSanta]

Alaska has always been diverse.  There is a strong native/white split in the population, and I would assume that the natives don't turnout to vote at the same rate the white folks do.  Campaigning in such a huge state for such a small prize might not be worth it from a logistical standpoint. It is very isolated with certain parts of the state not even connected by road.  It is also a super long flight.