If after the 2016 election you were told:

[ProgressiveModerate]

- Trump would be impeached and Sen. Mitt Romney would vote to convict him, though he is ultimately acquitted
- Trump would win Zapata County, TX
- The Democrat would receive nearly 1.5 million more ballots than Hillary Clinton out of TX
- The Democrat would get a higher share of the vote in GA than WI
- It took several days for the network to call the election, and senate control is still not known in December
- Miami - Dade County would be within single digits
- The would Democrat wins over 55% of the vote in Colorado
- There's a 6% gap between how PA and MN vote
- Trump gets over 73,000,000 votes
- Ultimately, 5 states and 1 district change how they voted from 2016
- By and large both sides were unhappy with the results of the election

Who would win and what would be the map?

[DINGO Joe]

- Trump would be impeached and Sen. Mitt Romney would vote to convict him, though he is ultimately acquitted
- Trump would win Zapata County, TX
- The Democrat would receive nearly 1.5 million more ballots than Hillary Clinton out of TX
- The Democrat would get a higher share of the vote in GA than WI
- It took several days for the network to call the election, and senate control is still not known in December
- Miami - Dade County would be within single digits
- The would Democrat wins over 55% of the vote in Colorado
- There's a 6% gap between how PA and MN vote
- Trump gets over 73,000,000 votes
- Ultimately, 5 states and 1 district change how they voted from 2016
- By and large both sides were unhappy with the results of the election

Who would win and what would be the map?

Why, it would be exactly the map we had.

[South Dakota Democrat]

- Trump would be impeached and Sen. Mitt Romney would vote to convict him, though he is ultimately acquitted
- Trump would win Zapata County, TX
- The Democrat would receive nearly 1.5 million more ballots than Hillary Clinton out of TX
- The Democrat would get a higher share of the vote in GA than WI
- It took several days for the network to call the election, and senate control is still not known in December
- Miami - Dade County would be within single digits
- The would Democrat wins over 55% of the vote in Colorado
- There's a 6% gap between how PA and MN vote
- Trump gets over 73,000,000 votes
- Ultimately, 5 states and 1 district change how they voted from 2016
- By and large both sides were unhappy with the results of the election

Who would win and what would be the map?

Why, it would be exactly the map we had.

The question is what you would predict the map to be in 2016, knowing all this information but without the benefit of actually seeing it unfold.

[forsythvoter]

I would have guessed Biden wins Hillary states, with the following changes:

Trump flips, due to Hispanic swings that cost Biden Zapata County and gave him a sharply reduced margin in Miami-Dade :
- NM
- NV

I assume Biden loses AZ because of the same Hispanic swings.

Biden flips (given 5 states have to flip, GA is more D than WI so I assume the same trends in the sunbelt that gave him GA would give him NC).
+ Michigan
+ Georgia
+ North Carolina
+ NE-2

So this leads to a 269-269 tie!

[Chips]

[Chips]

- Trump would be impeached and Sen. Mitt Romney would vote to convict him, though he is ultimately acquitted
- Trump would win Zapata County, TX
- The Democrat would receive nearly 1.5 million more ballots than Hillary Clinton out of TX
- The Democrat would get a higher share of the vote in GA than WI
- It took several days for the network to call the election, and senate control is still not known in December
- Miami - Dade County would be within single digits
- The would Democrat wins over 55% of the vote in Colorado
- There's a 6% gap between how PA and MN vote
- Trump gets over 73,000,000 votes
- Ultimately, 5 states and 1 district change how they voted from 2016
- By and large both sides were unhappy with the results of the election

Who would win and what would be the map?

-Impeachment doesn't necessarily tell us anything by itself.
-This is interesting. This would've likely told me that Trump had increased his Hispanic support enough to not only hold AZ but also flip NV.
-I would've assumed this to be a very high turnout election.
-Interesting. That effectively means that GA is blue if the entire Rust Belt is also blue but is red if two of the Rust Belt states stay red.
-Florida 2000 on steroids baby!
-Florida is definitely staying red and if it spills over into other parts of the Hispanic community, it would reaffirm my picks of Trump winning both AZ and NV.
-Looks like the Democrat was able to appeal to college educated suburbanites which possibly could've given away that GA is going blue.
-This also does a decent job at giving away Democrats winning in NE02.
-Definitely a very high turnout. Over 60% for sure.
-The details left out earlier would've left me guessing a 289-249 Dem win with WI, MI, PA, NE02 and in a big upset, GA going blue while NV turns to Trump.
-Wouldn't have surprised me. I can imagine both sides wouldn't have been thrilled about a very close election that dragged on.

[Make America Grumpy Again]

[bagelman]

[Schiff for Senate]

- Trump would be impeached and Sen. Mitt Romney would vote to convict him, though he is ultimately acquitted
- Trump would win Zapata County, TX
- The Democrat would receive nearly 1.5 million more ballots than Hillary Clinton out of TX
- The Democrat would get a higher share of the vote in GA than WI
- It took several days for the network to call the election, and senate control is still not known in December
- Miami - Dade County would be within single digits
- The would Democrat wins over 55% of the vote in Colorado
- There's a 6% gap between how PA and MN vote
- Trump gets over 73,000,000 votes
- Ultimately, 5 states and 1 district change how they voted from 2016
- By and large both sides were unhappy with the results of the election

Who would win and what would be the map?

1. Wouldn't know what to make of it.
2. Hispanics definitely swung rightward (maybe a Hispanic running mate, though pretty unlikely), but Trump also won and improved by a good amount in rural areas generally.
3. Pretty high turnout election + blue-trending-suburbs + growth in suburbs.
4. I guess 2016 redux as far as the upper Midwest is concerned, while metro Atlanta tips GA further leftward (though it pretty likely still goes red).
5. One very close state - maybe FL2000 2.0? As for the Senate, GA has a runoff election.
6. A Floridian on the ticket? Decent-sized regional disaster that Trump handles well? Hispanics swung hard rightward?
7. Denver 'burbs trending leftward by quite a bit.
8. Obviously MN votes to the left of PA - I guess Klobuchar might be on the ballot? Twin Cities suburbs swing much further to the left than the Philly suburbs, or rural PA swings further to the right while rural MN somehow remains about the same
9. As I said - Trump has won, and it was fairly high turnout.
10. Somehow, either ME02 or NE02 has flipped blue....based on trends most likely the latter. Or maybe even, in a massive stretch (very unlikely), ME01 has flipped red. A for 5 states, this is harder, but maybe somehow GA flipped blue (maybe a Georgian on the ballot and/or metro Atlanta swinging hard left?) even as 4 states (NV and NH, maybe MN and ME) flipped red as part of a landslide.
11. GOP unhappy maybe because the Senate somehow flipped blue? Something like that? Or Democrats gain a lot in the House? Democrats unhappy because Trump reelected and maybe they won the popular vote but lost the electoral college two races in a row (though based on results in Zapata, unlikely)?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

- Trump would be impeached and Sen. Mitt Romney would vote to convict him, though he is ultimately acquitted
- Trump would win Zapata County, TX
- The Democrat would receive nearly 1.5 million more ballots than Hillary Clinton out of TX
- The Democrat would get a higher share of the vote in GA than WI
- It took several days for the network to call the election, and senate control is still not known in December
- Miami - Dade County would be within single digits
- The would Democrat wins over 55% of the vote in Colorado
- There's a 6% gap between how PA and MN vote
- Trump gets over 73,000,000 votes
- Ultimately, 5 states and 1 district change how they voted from 2016
- By and large both sides were unhappy with the results of the election

Who would win and what would be the map?

1. Wouldn't know what to make of it.
2. Hispanics definitely swung rightward (maybe a Hispanic running mate, though pretty unlikely), but Trump also won and improved by a good amount in rural areas generally.
3. Pretty high turnout election + blue-trending-suburbs + growth in suburbs.
4. I guess 2016 redux as far as the upper Midwest is concerned, while metro Atlanta tips GA further leftward (though it pretty likely still goes red).
5. One very close state - maybe FL2000 2.0? As for the Senate, GA has a runoff election.
6. A Floridian on the ticket? Decent-sized regional disaster that Trump handles well? Hispanics swung hard rightward?
7. Denver 'burbs trending leftward by quite a bit.
8. Obviously MN votes to the left of PA - I guess Klobuchar might be on the ballot? Twin Cities suburbs swing much further to the left than the Philly suburbs, or rural PA swings further to the right while rural MN somehow remains about the same
9. As I said - Trump has won, and it was fairly high turnout.
10. Somehow, either ME02 or NE02 has flipped blue....based on trends most likely the latter. Or maybe even, in a massive stretch (very unlikely), ME01 has flipped red. A for 5 states, this is harder, but maybe somehow GA flipped blue (maybe a Georgian on the ballot and/or metro Atlanta swinging hard left?) even as 4 states (NV and NH, maybe MN and ME) flipped red as part of a landslide.
11. GOP unhappy maybe because the Senate somehow flipped blue? Something like that? Or Democrats gain a lot in the House? Democrats unhappy because Trump reelected and maybe they won the popular vote but lost the electoral college two races in a row (though based on results in Zapata, unlikely)?

This is close to what my brain would imagine is likely.

[Ferguson97]

- Trump would win Zapata County, TX
- The Democrat would receive nearly 1.5 million more ballots than Hillary Clinton out of TX

On paper these seem like incompatible data points, so I'd honestly have no clue lol.

[DPKdebator]

I think giving away the "5 states and 1 district flip" part restricts the possibilities of this scenario too much.

[Pres Mike]

I think giving away the "5 states and 1 district flip" part restricts the possibilities of this scenario too much.

If the OP removes the 1 district flip, I would assume Trump flipped MN, NH, NV and maybe VI and OR because of third party hurting democrats

Of course, Democrats winning 55% of the vote in CO would be odd unless the nominee was from Colorado

[GregTheGreat657]

- Trump would be impeached and Sen. Mitt Romney would vote to convict him, though he is ultimately acquitted
- Trump would win Zapata County, TX
- The Democrat would receive nearly 1.5 million more ballots than Hillary Clinton out of TX
- The Democrat would get a higher share of the vote in GA than WI
- It took several days for the network to call the election, and senate control is still not known in December
- Miami - Dade County would be within single digits
- The would Democrat wins over 55% of the vote in Colorado
- There's a 6% gap between how PA and MN vote
- Trump gets over 73,000,000 votes
- Ultimately, 5 states and 1 district change how they voted from 2016
- By and large both sides were unhappy with the results of the election

Who would win and what would be the map?

I didn't quite realize until just now how wild of an election 2020 was

[Calthrina950]

- Trump would be impeached and Sen. Mitt Romney would vote to convict him, though he is ultimately acquitted
- Trump would win Zapata County, TX
- The Democrat would receive nearly 1.5 million more ballots than Hillary Clinton out of TX
- The Democrat would get a higher share of the vote in GA than WI
- It took several days for the network to call the election, and senate control is still not known in December
- Miami - Dade County would be within single digits
- The would Democrat wins over 55% of the vote in Colorado
- There's a 6% gap between how PA and MN vote
- Trump gets over 73,000,000 votes
- Ultimately, 5 states and 1 district change how they voted from 2016
- By and large both sides were unhappy with the results of the election

Who would win and what would be the map?

I didn't quite realize until just now how wild of an election 2020 was

The election certainly was crazy. The pandemic obviously played a significant factor, and the massive increase in mail-in voting caused by it probably helped to boost turnout overall. Trump himself obviously was important, as he simultaneously energized his supporters and his opponents to vote.