Who is more likely to win?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Idk honestly

[Schiff for Senate]

Not a tough choice - Benson is.

Benson won in 2018 by nearly 9, and Nessel by less than 3, points.

Also I feel like the GOP Secretary of State candidate will do worse because they'll either anger the base by saying they wouldn't make sure the GOP won MI in 2024, or completely alienate moderates and turbocharge Democratic turnout by saying they would. Election lies will be a much more salient issue and whichever side the GOP candidate comes out on, it hurts them. Avoiding them won't work because counting the votes is a central aspect of the job of the Secretary of State, and while it used to be uncontroversial, it's a big deal now (sad, but it's the way things are). On the other hand, the GOP attorney general can try to avoid discussion of the election so as to avoid putting of the MAGA base or moderates and focus more on bread-and-butter issues and just attack Biden and Harris. Basically they won't be saddled by having to choose one way or another regarding the Big Lie if they don't want to.

TLDR: The GOP candidate for the secretary of state election will inevitably need to choose to either endorse or disavow the Big Lie and either promise to or refuse to promise to making sure the GOP wins MI in 2024. Whichever they choose, it's going to hurt. On the other hand the GOP candidate for Attorney General doesn't really need to do this and can possibly avoid the issue altogether if they run their campaign really well. Besides which, Sec. of State Benson outperformed Atty. General Nessel by like 6 points back in 2018.

[DS0816]

I anticipate a same-party sweep in 2022 Michigan: Governor/Lieutenant Governor; Secretary of State; Attorney General.

2022 Republican pickups.